AL-QAEDAâS second-in-command has ordered the groupâs leader in Iraq to prepare a campaign of violence across the Middle East to establish an Islamist superstate when America leaves Iraq.But Ayman al-Zawahiri, an Egyptian doctor considered to be al-Qaedaâs leading strategic planner, also cautioned Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian-born terrorist chief in Iraq, that slaughtering Shia civilians could undermine their grand design by turning popular Muslim opinion against them.
Al-Qaedaâs ambitious vision is revealed in a 6,000-word letter, seized by US troops during a counter-terrorism operation in Iraq, that offers a unique insight into the organisationâs strategy. The letter, which the Bush Administration has just posted on the internet (www.dni.gov), also reveals a schism in al-Qaeda, with even al-Zawahiri questioning the brutality of al-Qaedaâs âemirâ in Iraq.
Al-Zawahiri, in a sign that al-Qaedaâs old guard â which organised the September 11 attacks on the United States â may be losing ground to younger terrorists in Iraq, pleads with his protégé for money even as he urges him to reign in his murderous urges. US officials said it was âabsolutely certainâ the letter was meant for Zarqawi, though he is mentioned only obliquely, and they vouched for its authenticity.
Zawahiri and Zarqawi are clearly at one in their desire to establish the Prophet Muhammadâs 7th-century vision of a kingdom of God on Earth, and want it to end in an apocalyptic showdown with Israel. Al-Zawahiri sets out for the first time a step-by-step plan to re-create Islamâs medieval caliphate, starting with the expulsion of US forces from Iraq, establishing an Islamist emirate in Baghdad. and then spreading jihad into nearby secular states such as Jordan, Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Kuwait.
The final stage would be a showdown with Israel âbecause Israel was established only to challenge any new Islamic entityâ, he writes.
The letter emphasises that the Mujahidinâs mission must not end with the expulsion of the Americans from Iraq âand then lay down their weapons and silence the fighting zeal. We will return to having the secularists and traitors holding sway over us. Instead the ongoing mission is to establish an Islamic state . . . until the Hour of Resurrection.â
Al-Zawahiri clearly fears that al-Zarqawiâs constant attacks on Shia mosques in Iraq and his beheading of hostages on video have sickened many Arabs who once showed sympathy for al-Qaeda.
The older terrorist emphasi- ses that the group would need a more political stance to take advantage of a power vacuum when the American military left Iraq.
âThings may develop faster than we imagine,â al-Zawahiri writes. âThe aftermath of the collapse of American power in Vietnam â and how they ran and left their agents â is noteworthy. Because of that, we must be starting now, before events overtake us.â
Al-Zawahiri suggests al-Zarqawi begins to transfer some power from his foreign insurgents â âthe Islamic Mujahidinâ â to Iraqi guerillas to avoid a backlash against foreign interference in Iraqâs affairs.
He recalls how the Taleban in Afghanistan restricted their leadership to a handful of fanatical students based in Kandahar, and how quickly their support vanished when the US Army and its Afghan allies attacked in 2001.
âIn the absence of popular support, the Islamic Mujahidin movement would be crushed in the shadows, far from the masses who are distracted or fearful,â al-Zawahiri says.
He goes on to level strong personal criticism of al-Zarqawi â once a petty criminal, now a religious zealot who has personally beheaded Western hostages on video. He argues that being known as âSheikh of the Slaughterersâ could only damage al-Qaedaâs cause of winning Muslim hearts and minds for the greater cause of building a caliphate. âAmong the things which the feelings of the Muslim populace who love and support you will never find palatable are the scene of slaughtering the hostages,â he said.
Al-Zawahiri admits that the Shia brand of Islam is âbased on excess and falsehood,â but says that hacking off the heads of Shia and Western captives and blowing up Shia mosques full of civilians can only harm their cause. He suggests that shooting hostages would be a more effective means of dispatching captured foes.
âWe are in a battle, and half of that is taking place in the battlefield of the media,â he says, his tone suggesting that this was one battle that al-Zarqawi â a man bitterly hated by Iraqâs Shias, who make up 60 percent of the country, and distrusted by many ordinary Sunnis â is fast losing.
US officials will not say when the letter was seized but events on the ground tend to corroborate its contents. An Iraqi guerrilla from Fallujah recently told The Times that his group had removed all scenes of gruesome beheadings from their underground recruitment videos, fearing it would alienate potential fighters revolted by al-Zarqawiâs methods of spreading terror.
Arab security officials in neighbouring states fear that al-Zarqawiâs supporters _â a mixture of former Saddam Hussein loyalists and non-Iraqi holy warriors â are already spreading across their borders.
âAl-Qaeda, with all its groups and sub-groups, has managed to infiltrate our surroundings, and is present in all Arab societies, and is moving across their borders,â said one official.
The letterâs publication by John Negroponte, the US Director of National Intelligence, comes only days before Saturdayâs referendum on Iraqâs new constitution and may have been designed to widen an apparent split between al-Qaedaâs operatives in Iraq and their local allies.
Al-Qaeda opposes any participation in the new political process, and has warned voters â Sunnis and Shias alike â to shun this weekendâs constitutional referendum or be killed. Iraqâs Sunnis, however, realize that by boycotting the January elections they handed power to the Shiites and Kurds. They want to vote on Saturday if only to reject the proposed charter. Sunni leaders have denounced death threats from al Qaeda as âmeddlingâ by foreigners in their destiny.