| Submit your comments on this article | |
| Syria-Lebanon-Iran | |
| Syria's govt prepares for looming UN report | |
| 2005-10-13 | |
"There's no doubt about that." Despite gloating by some Syrians about the regime's current troubles, most believe it can survive, whatever happens. A weak opposition, and the fact that any revolt would likely be seen as spearheaded by the United States, lead many Syrians and analysts to believe the regime is safe for now. Many Syrians feel the United States caused a disaster when it invaded neighbouring Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein, leading to a bloody insurgency. "Syrians do not want to have the same fate as Iraqis," said Yassin Haj Saleh, an outspoken dissident. "One of the regime's strongest points is the weakness of the Iraq model." "Had that model succeeded," he added, "there would have been less hostility toward America and what it could offer." But some say the danger to the regime could come from within from someone seizing power in a bloodless palace coup that would keep the minority Alawites in power. Visitors who have seen Assad recently report he is relaxed, upbeat and confident the investigation will not find any criminal evidence against his country in the Feb 14 Beirut bombing that killed Hariri and 20 others. But he recently told Jihad Al-Khazen, a senior columnist for the London-based, pan-Arab daily Al Hayat, that some countries may try to "politicise" the probe to step up the pressure on Syria. He said if that happens, Syria will be targeted because the ultimate aim of those countries, which he did not name but are believed to include the United States is Iran. Syria is Iran's closest Arab ally. "What we are seeing is an attempt to weaken (Iran's) allies or alienate them," he told Al-Khazen. Analysts say that, mindful of the sensitivity of the next few weeks, Damascus is working on two tracks. On the first track, it projects a facade of confidence and nonchalance. Officials reach out to investors, the Cabinet discusses issues not relevant to its predicament, such as violence against children, and the country has put out more than 20 TV serials for Ramadan, the fasting month. "Syria wants to show it has time to think about such issues," said analyst Ayman Abdel-Nour. On the other track, the regime is preparing for the possibility the report will implicate Syria. Syria is reportedly planning a diplomatic offensive to discredit the report, which would include reaching out to China, India and Russia to help block a UN resolution and possible sanctions against it. Damascus will also likely use US allies Egypt and Saudi Arabia as channels for a deal with Washington. Abdel-Nour said the regime is also consolidating the power of the ruling Baath party, the only tool it has to defend itself. Economically, the government is bracing for possible troubles ahead, Syria's minister of economy, Amer Lutfi said. He did not say what measures are being taken but stressed Syria has achieved "food security." Dennis Ross, a former US Middle East mediator, said the Bush administration's response will depend on whether the blame goes to the top of the regime, or to less-senior Syrian officials who acted on their own. Either way, he said, Syria will have to do more than Libya did in the case of the 1988 bombing of a Pan Am airliner over Lockerbie, Scotland, that killed 270 people turning over a couple of suspects. "It's in Syria's interest to remove any cloud, any stigma, any questioning about where it's coming from, and what it's doing," said Ross. That would include reassessing its policies on Iraq, and its links with militant Palestinians and with the Iranian-backed Lebanese guerrilla group Hezbollah, which Washington brands as terrorist. "These cards have not exactly given Syria a very strong hand," said Ross. "The more the regime has tried to play the cards, the weaker they've become." | |
| Posted by:DanNY |
| #3 I hope we let the USMC probe a lot deeper into Syria, period. |
| Posted by: Ominesh Phereque6086 2005-10-13 11:59 |
| #2 I have some questions that all the knowledgable RB's may know, as everything I read seems to conflict some. Some bios' on Bin Laden paint him as an outcast among his own half-brothers, as his mother was an Alawite from Latakia. Saudi Arabs are the superior race and no one would play with him on the playground. He went to the coast every summer with her to visit family and his first wife, a cousin, also from there. What happened to her when he went to Afghanistan? Who are all the relatives? He also apparently inquired once about living on a nearby lake he enjoyed. The familial ties are political, so wouldn't that give him potential allies within the ruling government in Syria? Hariri wouldn't fit into UBL's austere vision and would need to be disposed of before extending into Iraq's neighbors. Zawahiri and son Saad, apparently in Iran, would be another connection to Syria besides Hezbollah. Also, Bin Laden apparently spent time as a young man in Beirut, as did Imad Mugniyeh, where he sowed a few wild oats before becoming disgusted with their decadence. If this all true, I hope they probe a lot deeper into Syrian affairs. |
| Posted by: Danielle 2005-10-13 11:56 |
| #1 Dennis Ross, a former US Middle East mediator, said the Bush administration's response will depend on whether the blame goes to the top of the regime, or to less-senior Syrian officials who acted on their own. Despite dealing with M.E. shit for all this time, it's good to see that Ross has kept his sense of humor. It's obviously indispensible in maintaining one's sanity. |
| Posted by: .com 2005-10-13 04:54 |