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| Azerbaijani Opposition Tempted by Ukrainian-style Revolution | |
| 2005-10-30 | |
"November 7 is going to be a key date. The opposition is going to try to stage massive street protests, in an attempted repeat of the Ukrainian scenario," said Fariz Ismailzade, an analyst with the Baku branch of Baltimore-based Johns Hopkins University. "The way the authorities react will be decisive," Ismailzade added. Late last year, huge opposition demonstrations peacefully toppled Ukraine's pro-Moscow regime, following a rigged presidential election. Two other former Soviet republics, Georgia in 2003 and Kyrgyzstan earlier this year, experienced similar regime changes. In Azerbaijan too, the opposition has accused the authorities of intending to rig the upcoming vote and hardly a week has gone by without clashes between demonstrators and police. President Ilham Aliyev last week sacked and arrested economic development minister Farkhad Aliyev and health minister Ali Insanov and arrested Farkhad Aliyev's wealthy brother Rafik, in connection to an alleged coup attempt. The three men face charges linking them to an alleged plot backing opposition efforts to bring about the overthrow of the regime. Several other officials have since been sacked and some of them arrested. But for all this, there is a key difference between Azerbaijan and Ukraine, Ismailzade said: while in Ukraine security forces refused to use force against demonstrators, here they remain unflinchingly loyal to the authorities. As a result, protests in Azerbaijan could lead to unrest and even bloodshed, warned Rashad Rzaquliyev, an analyst with the Eurasia Foundation of Strategic Cooperation. The head of Azerbaijan's Islamic Party, Haji Aga Nuriyev, agreed. "If they go for revolution, Azerbaijan will become impossible to control," said the candidate from Nardaran, a devoutly Islamic village near Baku renowned for mounting major anti-government protests in 2002. Washington, which is increasingly influential in the southern Caucasus region, is keeping a close eye on Azerbaijan. On the day Aliyev began purging his cabinet, Daniel Fried, the US assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, was holding a press conference in a Baku hotel. "Revolutions are an indication of failure. It is far better to achieve democracy through reforms and free elections," said Fried, just out of a meeting with Aliyev. | |
| Posted by:Seafarious |