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| Terror Networks & Islam |
| Can al-Qaeda survive |
| 2005-11-09 |
| Al-Qaeda has defied a global crackdown since September 11, 2001 and is now assured long-term survival even after the death or possible capture of its leader, analysts say. Arresting or capturing Osama bin Laden would change nothing in Al-Qaeda, said Michael Scheuer, former head of the CIA's Bin Laden unit. "Al-Qaeda is now a well-established, 17-year-old firm; indeed, the parts of it that developed from mechanisms that supported the Afghans against the Soviets have been operating for 25 years," Scheuer said. "In short, Al-Qaeda is now what its founders intended: a reliable, professional organization that has demonstrated long-term durability." Al-Qaeda's propaganda success was underscored, analysts said, by the fact that young people integrated into British society and with no apparent link to classic terrorist structures were believed to be behind the July 7 bombings on the London transport network and an attempted copycat attack two weeks later. "From Al-Qaeda's first day to the present, Bin Laden's priority has been to incite and instigate Muslims to support and participate in a defensive jihad against the United States and its allies," said Scheuer. "He and his lieutenants have spent large amounts of money, time and imagination to build a world-class media and propaganda apparatus," he said. "Today, that apparatus is in full operation." Hunted by the world's law enforcers, Al-Qaeda's ability to transform itself into a source of inspiration has ensured it will remain a threat for years to come, agreed Bruce Hoffman, chair of counterterrorism and counterinsurgency at US risk analysis group RAND. "The phenomenon that we have seen in London and Spain, the diasporas becoming more involved in terrorism, represents a strategic choice made by Al-Qaeda several years ago when they began to actively cultivate diaspora communities for membership in the movement," Hoffman said. "It is part of Al Qaeda's long term strategic vision that reaches far into the future," he said. Al-Qaeda had become more of a source of inspiration to its followers than an operational force, Hoffman said. "It mattered more to capture Bin Laden four years ago than now, because he is now more a figurehead than anything else," he said. "The movement he created will live on, I think he desired it that way from the start." French criminologist Xavier Raufer, author of recent work "The Enigma of Al-Qaeda", said it was no longer possible to be a clandestine terrorist and at the same time run an organizational network. "So you withdraw from the world, like Bin Laden, into the mountains and without any electronic contact. And to continue to exist on the international level you have to be scattered, with the least amount of organization possible," Raufer said. "Of course, it would be important if someone like Bin Laden was arrested and brought to justice. But that would not mean any fewer attacks at the end of the year. Something has been unleashed and whether it is stopped or not does not depend on the life of a single man." |
| Posted by:Dan Darling |
| #2 Can al-Qaeda survive If this world has any brains, the answer will be "no." |
| Posted by: Zenster 2005-11-09 18:37 |
| #1 hmmm...mouth piece Scheuer spouting off again? Could it be that we are going to hear that binny boy is dead or captured soon? Usually these "it doesn't matter anyway" pieces come right before or after the announcement of a big success. |
| Posted by: 2b 2005-11-09 16:20 |