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Science & Technology
BMD Watch: Nuke SCUD Threat To U.S.
2005-11-10
Lockheed Martin is developing a warning system to detect nuclear-armed SCUD missiles that could potentially be launched from small ships off the U.S. coast.
"They don't need intercontinental ballistic missile to attack us. An enemy could put a SCUD on a tramp steamer and launch it off the coast," said David Kier, Vice-President of Lockheed Martin's Protection Division.

Because of that non-theoretical threat Lockheed Martin has been investing its own money to develop a system called Passive Coherent Locator (PCL) that could detect such a ship-launched missile and feed accurate tracking information into the existing national missile defense command-and-control system for a response, the Night Watch Information Service reported.

The PCL system involves a network of sensors that could be operational from Washington to Boston within two years of government funding and along the entire U.S. coastline some years later.

Some 75 percent of the total U.S. population of 290 million people and 75 percent of its military bases are within 200 miles of the coast. The number of potential launch platforms is immense, with 130,000 registered merchant ships in 195 countries, NWIS said.

Thousands of SCUDs and other inexpensive short-range ballistic missiles have been dispersed, sold worldwide with some in countries where terrorist groups operate openly.

Iran test-launched a tactical ballistic missile from a ship last year and the threat has become much worse with the rapid proliferation of cruise missiles. China has already supplied many to Iran.

Some 70 countries already possess an estimated 75,000 anti-ship cruise missiles and many of them could be easily converted to land-attack weapons. At least 10 nations already have land-attack cruise missiles and their number is increasing, NWIS said.

A report by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments stated, "While the Defense Department has numerous programs to address threats to forward-deployed ground and naval forces, it has devoted much less attention to cruise missile threats to the homeland.

"Even the relatively large Seersucker (Russian-built anti-ship cruise missile) can be hidden and launched from a standard 12-meter shipping container," the CSBA report said. "The balance between cruise missiles and defenses currently favor the offense."

During congressional testimony early this year, Air Force Lt. Gen. Henry "Trey" Obering, director of the Missile Defense Agency, said he was "concerned about" the potential for a ship-launched missile attack on the United States.

"There is a difference of opinion in terms of whether that constitutes a real threat, but that's something I'm personally concerned about. So we're working on it."

More recently, Obering told reporters: "We launched a SCUD off an ocean-going platform ... It was very easy to do."

Cruise-missile defense, however, is not part of MDA's responsibility. That responsibility is shared by the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization and the Joint Theater Air and Missile Organization, NWIS said.

Lockheed Martin's PCL has received some assistance in system verification from the government, including defense agencies and NASA, Kier said.
Posted by:DanNY

#11  New toys for the rocket scientists? Have fun, bruce!
Posted by: trailing wife   2005-11-10 22:05  

#10  San Francisco might be better protected than you think. They have a National Historic site Nike base there. The "volunteers" last I heard were trying to get the radars operational again. Always they are looking for volunteers, see: http://www.nps.gov/goga/nike/maps.htm
Posted by: bruce   2005-11-10 15:58  

#9  USNORTHCOM: one of Rumsfeld's achievements which flies under most people's radar. Defending CONUS now has a central, joint command structure that isn't also worrying about other areas of the globe. The question is, of course, what forces will be moved under NORTHCOM when needed -- or are quietly operating already.
Posted by: lotp   2005-11-10 15:13  

#8  though I'd move the old SF unit up to Seattle to cover the Boeing plants rather than waste it on the Bay area.

That 'unit' and another like it located at Fort Meade Md, were inactivated in the mid-90's. Pentagon/SOF planners believed at that time that additional unconvential warfare resources were no longer required. The term 'assymmetric warfare' was just beginning to be used.
Posted by: Besoeker   2005-11-10 14:15  

#7  For those of you interested in these things, the Coast Guard runs Maritime Fusion Intelligence Centers in Alameda, CA and Dam Neck, VA to track worldwide merchant ship traffic. They are impressive operations, and it's not as easy for the tramp steamer to just pop up and fire as many think. Also, there's nothing magical about the 12 NM limit. We'll stop a ship in the middle of the Pacific if need be.

The Atlantic MIFC's website is: HTTP://www.uscg.mil/lantarea/mifclant
Posted by: Dreadnought   2005-11-10 11:35  

#6  If it's a SCUD, we should be safe - unless they aim for Canada, of course.
Posted by: BH   2005-11-10 10:44  

#5  leave the SF bay area unprotected - they don't want the awful burden of security
Posted by: Frank G   2005-11-10 10:27  

#4  Two points: the US Coast Guard quietly got approval for far-at-sea-off-coast searches of suspicious vessels a while back; and second, Germany just signed a contract with Iran to provide them with four large cargo ships.

Since we have invested a LOT of money in layered anti-missile defense against NORK, it would be foolish to let a launch ship through those defenses. There are a lot of old, grizzled US Navy sailors, and they pretty much spend their time contemplating things like this.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2005-11-10 09:42  

#3  A battery or two of Patriot missles at Fort Tilden in the Rockaways should cover NYC. Most of the old infrastructure still exists.

Dunno how safe the commercial air traffic would be in an engagement though.
Posted by: DanNY   2005-11-10 09:37  

#2  Used to have Nike Herc air defense missile sites back in the 60s and early 70s which covered major metropolitan areas like LA, SF, Chicago, NY, Boston, Washington, etc. All phased out. The land is still probably in federal hands for reuse, though I'd move the old SF unit up to Seattle to cover the Boeing plants rather than waste it on the Bay area. To make Rummey happy, these could be manned by NG rather than regulars so he doesn't have to worry his pretty head about manpower issues.
Posted by: Greregum Phomong6307   2005-11-10 09:23  

#1  Kudos to Lockheed to putting their own money and effort into starting to defend our population centers. I have thought this is how the US will be attacked, using a fleet of container ships parked outside the 12 mile limit with cruise or small missiles such as an ATACMS class (13 feet long, 180 miles, 500 pound warhead) and the US could not do a thing about. The attacker would even have a measure of deniability.

Now, if only we can begin to think about air defense for our cities.
Posted by: ed   2005-11-10 09:15  

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