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| Africa: Subsaharan |
| Eddie Cross: "Whither Zimbabwe?" |
| 2005-11-12 |
| We end this week with some wise thoughts from Eddie Cross a true Zimbabwean elder statesman. If you are not confused by what is going on in Zimbabwe then you simply have not heard enough of all that is happening. It is astonishing that this small central African State should be in such turmoil - just short of a civil war situation - the only plus is that we are not killing each other. We have the fastest shrinking economy in the world - perhaps even an historical record in that respect. We have a population that is experiencing enormous shifts - shrinking by at least 3 or 4 per cent per annum, with thousands leaving the country every week and hundreds of thousands dying quietly in their homes each year from every disease and malady imaginable. Half our population is starving and the other half is walking to work. The ruling Party, Zanu PF, has been in power for 26 years, has no idea of what to do to halt the collapse and turn things around... The MDC now seems to be split down the middle on the Senate issue - there are other issues behind the scenes in this conflict, but it is the Senate issue that has caused the divide. ..both sides are slugging it out and the media loves it, as do the hyenas in Zanu PF. The international community is divided on the issue of what to do in Zimbabwe... Regional leaders want a reformed Zanu PF government with new policies that will stop the internal hemorrhaging in Zimbabwe and reverse the flood of economic refugees into their countries. The major democratic States want action by the UN and by the region to curb the excesses of the Mugabe regime. China, Malaysia, Libya and Cuba - virtually the only friends Mugabe has left in the world are just hoping the local nutters will not further embarrass them... Even the administration of Government is in a shambles - the Governor of the Reserve Bank and the Vice President(Msika) say that the invasions of farms must stop, that they are "criminal in character" and are damaging the national interest... At the same time the Minister responsible for the land issue and for security - Mutasa, says that all white farmers are to be dispossessed and driven off the land... The net result is that there is very little land preparation. Many small farmers who started farming on land that had been given to them have abandoned their holdings in frustration and we are going to produce the smallest summer crop on record this year - whatever happens to the rain. One Minister says this, another disputes the story, negotiations are on in South Africa for the mysterious loan, progress is being made - but no substantive developments are in sight. The platinum miners get a great deal from the State; invest, only to be told that all the rules are changed. Zimbabwe negotiates a bilateral protection of investment agreement with South Africa and then simply does not sign it. It signs investment protection agreements with France, Holland, Germany and the World Bank and then simply ignores them or violates them at will... Who in his right mind would invest here at present and under these conditions... So wither Zimbabwe? I think we are in a most interesting situation. It is clear that the reformist elements in Zanu PF are slowly winning the struggle for more rational policies in government... It is also evident in the quiet negotiations going on for that illusive loan from South Africa - there seems to have been a welcome shift in the conditions attached to it - a new constitution, more rational and legitimate land policies, a return to the rule of law and the re-establishment of all human and political rights. Maybe, just maybe, quiet diplomacy is working - accompanied by more strident statements by the UN and the major powers - especially the USA and Europe. It is long overdue and we must watch for signs of a break through in these areas rather than simply worry about the shambles all around us. In fact the situation in the MDC and the almost certain humiliation that Zanu PF is expected to inflict on the MDC rebels who are standing as candidates may in fact encourage the process of reform and concession that is already underway in the ruling Party. Then watch out for the unintended consequences. |
| Posted by:Pappy |
| #2 This (and most of the Zim-blogs) is pretty much what passes for 'elite' thinking in Zimbabwe. |
| Posted by: Pappy 2005-11-12 23:22 |
| #1 Damn... whatever stuff he is smoking/ingesting/injecting is powerful stuff, and would bring a fine price sold in little bags or vials on the bad side of town to folks who want to take a long chemically-based vacation from reality. |
| Posted by: Sgt. Mom 2005-11-12 22:33 |