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| Science & Technology |
| Russian Astronomer Predicts 'Mini Ice Age'; Does Not Blame Bush |
| 2006-02-07 |
| A Russian astronomer has predicted that Earth will experience a "mini Ice Age" in the middle of this century, caused by low solar activity. Khabibullo Abdusamatov of the Pulkovo Astronomic Observatory in St. Petersburg said Monday that temperatures will begin falling six or seven years from now, when global warming caused by increased solar activity in the 20th century reaches its peak, RIA Novosti reported. The coldest period will occur 15 to 20 years after a major solar output decline between 2035 and 2045, Abdusamatov said. Dramatic changes in the earth's surface temperatures are an ordinary phenomenon, not an anomaly, he said, and result from variations in the sun's energy output and ultraviolet radiation. The Northern Hemisphere's most recent cool-down period occurred between 1645 and 1705. The resulting period, known as the Little Ice Age, left canals in the Netherlands frozen solid and forced people in Greenland to abandon their houses to glaciers, the scientist said. |
| Posted by:Anonymoose |
| #13 CF9283, the European climate turned abruptly colder around 450 AD. There is some evidence it was caused by a V large volcanic eruption. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2006-02-07 23:35 |
| #12 D ***, no more Coppertone and sunbloc, etc. and GASP, NO BIKINIS?, for the beach babes - maybe we should convert to Islam and Burquas after all!? |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2006-02-07 20:47 |
| #11 Roman rule collapsed as the environment was getting warmer, heading towards the medieval climate optimum. Rome declined as the Roman Warm Period ended and collapsed during the Dark Ages Cold Period. The MCO was much later, around 1000 AD. yeah, could be good for agriculture IF it follows patterns of past peaks. Which IIUC many think will NOT be the case. Ah, well then. So long as you toss out any evidence that doesn't fit the result you want, you'll see what you want. The sun might not come up tomorrow, too, but given the past performance, I'll bet on the future results. But past human civilizations hadnt put billions of dollars of urban investments on the coasts. So? For every billion we have on the coasts, we have ten inland. You may as well fret about the Big One coming to California -- and wiping out the billions we've invested there -- or the Big One coming to the New Madrid fault and wiping out St. Louis, Memphis, Peoria (OK, no loss there), etc. And if warming is anthropogenic, what did we do to Mars? Or, fer crissake, Pluto? Global Warming -- or Climate Change as it's now being called -- is just worrying for the sake of political power. Another in the proud chain that gave us the Club of Rome, Limits to Growth, etc. The instigators have wised up a little, this time, and are now declaring every extreme bit of weather as "proof". |
| Posted by: Robert Crawford 2006-02-07 20:14 |
| #10 LH - looking for a grant? Or sipped the blue koolaid? |
| Posted by: Frank G 2006-02-07 18:48 |
| #9 Shhhhhhhhhsssssssssss Next year is gonna be like this year, 10 years from now is gonna look a lot like the last 2 years, 50 years from now is likely to be warmer, but there's a good chance it could be cooler or even average. Keep it under your hat. /la nino O'Brien |
| Posted by: HalfEmpty 2006-02-07 18:39 |
| #8 Read an interesting book a while back that documented the collapse of Roman rule in Britain. Whilst it wasn't the author's contention, it was clear to me that climate cooling destroyed the agricultural economy that supported Roman rule. Huh? Roman rule collapsed as the environment was getting warmer, heading towards the medieval climate optimum. Heck, they were growing GRAPES in southern England. The collapse of literacy, and with it the loss of agricultural techniques and animal husbandry did post-roman Britain in, plus those pesky Anglo-Saxons enslaving most of the population... |
| Posted by: Chinter Flarong9283 2006-02-07 17:48 |
| #7 "Besides, given the historical correlation between the peaks of human cultures world-wide and warmer climates" Read an interesting book a while back that documented the collapse of Roman rule in Britain. Whilst it wasn't the author's contention, it was clear to me that climate cooling destroyed the agricultural economy that supported Roman rule. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2006-02-07 17:02 |
| #6 A russian astronomer - versus the consensus of climate scientists in the West? and no they cant say EXACTLY what will happen in 100 years. You have to plan based on the most likely case. "Besides, given the historical correlation between the peaks of human cultures world-wide and warmer climates" yeah, could be good for agriculture IF it follows patterns of past peaks. Which IIUC many think will NOT be the case. But past human civilizations hadnt put billions of dollars of urban investments on the coasts. |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2006-02-07 16:45 |
| #5 You Global Warming skeptics are really scraping bottom, huh? I find him to have significantly better credentials and to be far more persuasive than, for example, Al Gore. |
| Posted by: AzCat 2006-02-07 16:39 |
| #4 I still think that Kyoto could have prevented this. |
| Posted by: Perfesser 2006-02-07 15:29 |
| #3 You Global Warming skeptics are really scraping bottom, huh? You *are* aware this theory is not new, aren't you? And I'm not just talking about the "Coming Ice Age" hysteria of the '70s. Besides, given the historical correlation between the peaks of human cultures world-wide and warmer climates, I'm about as worried about climate change as I am about seasonal change. |
| Posted by: Robert Crawford 2006-02-07 15:24 |
| #2 Nah. I'm sure that, even though it can't predict the weather 5 days in advance, the Church of the Immaculate Global Warming knows exactly what will happen to the earth's climate over the next 100 years. |
| Posted by: Iblis 2006-02-07 15:18 |
| #1 "Khabibullo Abdusamatov of the Pulkovo Astronomic Observatory in St. Petersburg" You Global Warming skeptics are really scraping bottom, huh? |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2006-02-07 15:08 |