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| 'Net closing on bin Laden' - Predictions For The Year by Aegis |
| 2006-02-23 |
| There will be at least one terrorist attack on a European target this year and either Osama bin Laden or his right hand man will be killed or captured in 2006, British security experts predicted on Thursday. Furthermore, there will be no civil war in Iraq as insurgents lose the support of the mainstream population, and Iran will back down in its nuclear dispute with the West without sanctions or military action, Aegis Defence Services said. In its annual terrorism report, Aegis, which assesses global risks for governments and international companies, said the net was closing on the leaders of bin Laden's al-Qaeda group. It called bin Laden a "spent force", whose only role was as a talisman, and predicted he or his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, would be out of circulation in the next 12 months. At the same time, it said, al-Qaeda was showing signs of moving away from destruction towards more "earthly" political aims, meaning talks might be possible with their successors. "Al-Qaeda is striving to cast themselves in a political role," Aegis managing director of research and intelligence Dominic Armstrong told Reuters. "There is going to be more practical engagement." But Aegis, which correctly predicted there would be a large-scale bombing in the UK last year, said growing radicalisation of Islamist youths in Europe, combined with social and economic alienation, would mean further attacks. Britain and Italy remained the most likely targets but France, Spain and the Benelux countries were also at risk. "We are not going to see a 9/11 level of attack or that sort of destructive spectacular," Armstrong said. "It is more likely to be a number of smaller attacks against softer targets with an economic knock-on effect." Weapons of mass destruction would not be used, he said. "They do not own and will not own nuclear weapons or lethal pathogens," he said. "The successful attacks that take place this year will be conventional." Aegis, which has a $293m US contract to co-ordinate security for contractors in Iraq and has 1,000 staff on the ground, said the situation there was not as bad as the media portrayed and the country was not on the verge of civil war. "The insurgency will continue, but it will increasingly be down to criminals and foreign fighters as mainstream Iraqis become involved in the political process," Armstrong said. He said 14 of Iraq's 18 provinces were trouble-free. "Foreign fighters will be made to feel less welcome and that will be a turning point for Iraq. "For all the insurgency, the political process has not been delayed by a single day." The report also predicted Iran would back down in its dispute with the West over its nuclear ambitions with an agreement to allow it to use foreign-supplied enriched uranium for reactors, thus avoiding sanctions or any military action. "They are going to take it as far as they can, but they will step back," Armstrong said. "It's only aggressive brinkmanship." |
| Posted by:Anonymoose |
| #11 "They are going to take it as far as they can..." That means, they'll wait to see six aircraft carrier battle groups poised in the immediate area, Patriots and other batteries shored up in Iraq, Israel and Afghanistan, and "W" calling for a national news conference on the threat (ie the '24 hour get out of town speech') before they do. I hope some nervous trimble fingered Iranian general don't accidently push a button, when this happens!! |
| Posted by: smn 2006-02-23 21:46 |
| #10 I see,uh umm.... I see um...uh Whiskey! YES! A trainload of Whiskey! Enough for ever manjack and femalian in this "Burg. It's a miracle! I see a Man, a strange man, a man with a gun..... um a Pistol! It's AB! and he driving the Train! Hallelujah brothers and sistern we are saved! |
| Posted by: Oracle Jones 2006-02-23 17:25 |
| #9 You rang, Glenmore? |
| Posted by: Sister Cleo 2006-02-23 12:52 |
| #8 Iran will back down in its nuclear dispute with the West without sanctions or military action Is medical marijuana legal in England? |
| Posted by: Secret Master 2006-02-23 12:49 |
| #7 We predict a resurgence in Dionne Warwick's career... |
| Posted by: Psychic Friends Hotline 2006-02-23 10:43 |
| #6 I believe the Bush Administration has Bin Laden in a jail and will announce his capture to influence the elections in And I predict that Bat Boy will run for president in 2008. |
| Posted by: Dreadnought 2006-02-23 10:37 |
| #5 I predict LSU will make it as far as Sweet 16 in this year's NCAA. |
| Posted by: badanov 2006-02-23 07:47 |
| #4 I think I have more confidence in the predictions of the National Enquirer, or the Caribbean 1-900 phone fortune teller women. |
| Posted by: Glenmore 2006-02-23 07:32 |
| #3 Can we topple the MM's anyway, just for practice? Years ago my little sister was asked if she knew the difference between 'may' and 'can'. Her answer? 'Can' is when you're able and 'may' is when .... you can. There's some deep wisdom in that. Or deep confusion. I keep going back and forth on that one ;-) |
| Posted by: lotp 2006-02-23 07:22 |
| #2 Osama and the Burqua Boyz are fighting a Hyper-Power, nka GLOBAL UNIPOWER [word of week], where its unclear whether Dubya will stick to being a lameduck POTUS once he hits the last 6-12 mos. of his admin. My money is on Moralist, Leader Dubya continuing to lead America as he has up to the last hour of the last day before his [GOP?]successor is formally inaugurated in Jan 2009. IT MEANS THE TERRORISTS CAN EXPECT NO LET-UP FROM DUBYA IN THE WOT. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2006-02-23 02:28 |
| #1 Well, that some interesting stuff, alright, but what we really want to know is: |
| Posted by: .com 2006-02-23 00:11 |