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Iraq
Iraqi shrine crisis plays into Zarqawi's hands
2006-02-28
Iraqi leaders, from Kurdish President Jalal Talabani to Shia Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari and Sunni Defence Minister Saadoun al-Dulaimi, scramble to avert what they have no hesitation in describing as the danger of civil war

IRAQI leaders are now saying exactly what their deadliest enemy, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, may want to hear - Iraq faces a real threat of civil war. The destruction of a Shia shrine on Wednesday plunged postwar Iraq into its deepest crisis, setting off a furious wave of sectarian violence that claimed more than 200 lives.

Iraqi leaders, from Kurdish President Jalal Talabani to Shia Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari and Sunni Defence Minister Saadoun al-Dulaimi, scrambled to avert what they had no hesitation in describing as the danger of civil war. US and Iraqi officials suspect that Zarqawi, Al Qaeda’s leader in Iraq, ordered the Golden Mosque attack in Samarra to set off just such a conflict in the hope of giving militants a regional base for holy war and dashing US hopes for stability that would let American troops go home. The Jordanian Sunni militant’s group has in the past declared all-out war on “apostate” Shias and has claimed responsibility for suicide bombings that Iraqi and US officials say were designed to provoke Shia reprisals.

Majority Shias had largely heeded calls for restraint by their clerical leaders in the past, but last week’s violence showed that some were spoiling for revenge on minority Sunnis. “Zarqawi and Al Qaeda have made big gains from this crisis,” said Hazim al-Naimi, a political science professor in Baghdad. “He wants Iraq out of control and this will help.” An Iraqi militant grouping that includes Al Qaeda blamed the Baghdad government and Shia Iran for the bombing of what it called the Shia idol in Samarra and said it was a scheme to impose Shia domination - highly inflammatory language.

Analysts say Zarqawi wants anarchy in which he can maintain long-term operations in the country, not unlike Al QaedaÂ’s use of bases in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, with the overall aim of fostering religious rule throughout the region.

“Zarqawi wants to do one thing and that is create chaos that will help him reach his goal,” said Joost Hiltermann, an Iraq expert at the International Crisis Group think-tank.

Zarqawi may have rejoiced when the Golden Mosque blast set off retaliation by men wearing the black of Shia militiamen. Shia militia leaders disowned the reprisals but said they reflected the degree of anger in their community. Conversely, the violence has also reinforced efforts among many Iraqis to uphold a sense of unity. After 12 people were killed in their home near Baghdad on Saturday in what police called a sectarian attack on Shias, neighbours and relatives gathered to insist their mixed community would resist violence.

But Iraqi leaders are not taking any chances. Defence Minister Saadoun al-Dulaimi, who warned of “endless civil war” if the violence spiralled, threatened to fill the streets with tanks to stop sectarian tensions that have been building for two-and-half bloody years from exploding.

Fearful leaders: The Iraqi government only has a few tanks but they are backed by 130,000 US troops, now widely seen as critical to stopping civil war, even though both Sunni and Shia gunmen resent the US military presence.

“Zarqawi and Osama bin Laden want destructive anarchy, instability and chaos - anything so that the American project fails in Iraq,” said Abdel-Bari Atwan, editor of London-based newspaper al-Quds al-Arabi and an expert on Al Qaeda.

Iraqi and US leaders hope splits between Arab militants loyal to Zarqawi, IraqÂ’s most wanted man, and Iraqi insurgents will make it easier to stabilise the country.

Both are Sunni Arabs hostile to US policy, but their aims contrast, with Al Qaeda militants fighting for radical Islamist rule in the Arab world and Iraqi nationalist rebels seeking to re-establish a Sunni-dominated government in Baghdad.

Zarqawi has angered fellow Sunnis with suicide bombings in areas populated by the minority sect. And the attack on the shrine deepened Iraqi fightersÂ’ suspicions of him.

“The armed resistance is convinced that Zarqawi and others who have ties to the outside such as Iran and Israel are trying to hurt the Sunni Arabs and diminish their role in the Iraqi leadership,” said a militant known as Abdel Salaam of the nationalist insurgent group Mohammed’s Army in Falluja.

“We will open fire on them if they attack the symbols of national leadership and we have warned them,” he said.

Atwan said the mosque explosion might widen rifts between Al Qaeda-linked Sunni militants in Iraq and more moderate elements in the minority Sunni Arab community, but if a full-scale sectarian conflict erupted, these divisions would wither.

Zarqawi, who has a $25 million US bounty on his head, is not expected to give up his holy war campaign, even if he has created deadly enemies of his own in Iraq.

“He has angered insurgents who don’t believe in his methods or in attacks on holy sites,” ICG’s Hiltermann said. “But that won’t stop him.”
Posted by:Dan Darling

#2  much of the article narrative contradicts the headline

Its almost as if this Pakland paper has the same disease that the NYTimes has.
Posted by: mhw   2006-02-28 08:25  

#1  In contraast to a couple of articles posted here suggesting Zark-boy might have overplayed his hand with the same bombing.

Hmmm... I wonder what George Clooney thinks?
Posted by: Bobby   2006-02-28 06:45  

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