Lebanon’s political factions yesterday launched the most high-profile talks since the end of the civil war, but hopes are slim that they can find a way out of the country’s worst political crisis in the last 15 years. The talks are expected to tackle contentious issues that have threatened to paralyze the government and block much-needed reforms for the past year, including the fate of pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud and that of Hezbollah guerrillas’ arms.Both issues have come to the fore since last year’s killing of ex-Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, which led to Syrian forces leaving Lebanon after three decades and an anti-Syrian coalition sweeping to victory in general elections. Most Lebanese leaders — Christian and Muslim, pro- and anti-Syrian — are to attend seven to 10 days of talks, the most high-profile meeting since the end of 1975-1990 civil war. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri says “national dialogue” was the only way out of the deadlock, but diplomats and analysts say wide differences among the parties may hamper its success. “The talks can succeed only when each party realizes that it cannot settle the situation to its favor without offering compromises,” one Arab diplomat told Reuters. “Until now it does not seem that they have come to this conclusion.”
The left-wing daily As-Safir was more negative. “The question we should be asking is: What will be the likely scenario after the dialogue’s failure?” asked Joseph Samaha, the newspaper’s editor. “Seven or eight days of talks could end by reaching a calm or a truce, but saying it will offer cures to Lebanon’s problems is an illusion.”
The anti-Syrian coalition raised the stakes this month when it launched a campaign to remove Lahoud who, backed by Syria, has vowed to stay in office till his terms ends in 2007. Analysts say a key reason for pessimism over the talks is that Lebanon has become a front in the ongoing dispute between Western powers on the one hand and Syria and Iran on the other. The United States and France co-sponsored a 2004 UN Security Council resolution which demanded the disarmament of militias, including Hezbollah which is backed by Syria and Iran. Syria still wields strong influence in Lebanon. Washington also accuses Syria and Iran of interfering in Iraq and backing Palestinian militants against Israel.