By Akiva EldarA small group of Israelis and Palestinians, including senior and retired security officials, academics and political activists, were invited by IPCRI, the Israel Palestinian Center for Research and Information, to discuss the status of the two states for two peoples idea following Hamas' victory in the Palestinian parliamentary elections.
Dr. Riad Malki, the head of the Panorama Research Institute in Ramallah, surveyed the political situation in the territories and presented the new reality materializing there. Without anyone realizing it, the West Bank and Gaza Strip are being transformed into two separate entities.
"Israel's decision not to allow passage of Hamas ministers between Gaza and the West Bank has far-reaching ramifications," Malki pointed out. "The significance is that prime minister designate Ismail Haniyeh and most of his ministers will be Gazans, and the Gaza Strip will be transformed into the Palestinian Authority's main headquarters. The important decisions will be made there and most PA activities will take place there. The government offices, located in Ramallah, will be run by deputy ministers."
Even though PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas can access both regions - unlike Haniyeh, who is not permitted to enter the West Bank - Fatah is likely to lose what little remaining influence it has in Gaza. In Malki's forecast, when Gaza is transformed into Hamastan, the West Bank will be transformed into Fatahland. Over five years of assassinations and arrests have diluted the Hamas leadership in the West Bank and swung the balance of internal power within the organization in favor of the Gaza Strip. The institution of the presidency is now essentially being transformed into a source of power, a mini-state, a counterweight against the government, says the Palestinian researcher, a man with access to the political corridors of power. Therefore, he is willing to bet that Fatah will not be tempted by Hamas' offer to join its government. At most, a few party activists will join the Haniyeh government under the guise of being "independents."
According to Malki, associates of Abu Mazen are now working on entrenching his status through legislative and practical means, such as command of the security apparatuses and the administrative offices, as well as control of ties with the international community, the Arab world and Israel. Hamas' refusal to recognize the state of Israel will turn Abu Mazen's office into the only address for foreign leaders coming to visit the territories. Every photo of a meeting between Abu Mazen and a foreign dignitary will further highlight Haniyeh's isolation.
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