JERUSALEM — Israel's intelligence community has determined that stability is declining in Egypt and Jordan. The two countries, which have peace agreements with Israel, are considered as among the most powerful states in the Middle East. Egypt and Jordan both have air forces based on U.S. platforms...
| Egypt also has the Muslim Brotherhood and its children, who'll likely displace Mubarak in the sweet by and by. Jordan's got Zarqa, home of Zarqawi and lots of Zark wannabes. Of the two, I'd say Jordan's got more of a chance that Egypt, since Abdullah is a young, vigorous fellow and the Jordanian courts are willing to hang people. Hosni's heavily into Grecian Formula and would be in a nursing home in any rational country. |
| Maybe not, but he's a young fellow. Got a lot of miles left on him, and the Gordian Knot's been cut. Ten years from now the Middle East is going to look quite a bit different, even if only the trends in place continue. At age 78 come this May, Hosni probably won't be around to see it. |
Bad thing. Egypt is going hostile, and if Jordan falls to the Paleos, then Israel will be squeezed from all sides, which would be the Plan by al Q, Iran and clients, and all other hostiles to Israel.
| On the other hand, Jordan's got Israel on one side and a potentially stable Iraq on the other side, and a potentially stable post-Assad Syria to the north of them. |
They are on a roll, as long as Iran is funding them. Take Iran out of the equation, and things take a different turn.
| At some point within that 10-year window I mentioned, Iran will be out of the equation. I'm not sure if Soddy Arabia will be, but things will also be different there, since the Soddy King Abdullah is approximately the same age as Hosni, and I think his crown prince is only a year or two younger. I'd call it a race against time, with time probably favoring us, if not on our side. |
This is quite a thing to say in public.
Officials said military intelligence has envisioned a long-term Islamic threat against Egypt and Jordan that would affect the military balance with Israel. The Islamic opposition would hamper Hashemite rule in Jordan as well as efforts by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to transfer power to his son, Gamal, they said.
If Egypt is really in on this, they need our money dried up to them.
Last week, two senior military commanders discussed these assessments in public forums, provoking diplomatic protests from unspecified nations.
Jordan is one of them, heh.
Later, officials said Israel had raised concerns over the future of Abdullah's regime during a strategic dialogue with the United States in late 2005. They said Israel also reported a decline in the stability of the regimes in Egypt, Syria and the Palestinian Authority. "These things are known," said Israeli opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu, after an intelligence briefing on Feb. 23. "We don't need the generals to know this."
Everybody needs to know this. Of course you will not hear it on the MSM.
On Feb. 22, Deputy Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Moshe Kaplinski told a gathering of industrialists in Haifa that Mubarak was losing his authority. Kaplinski referred to the increasing strength of the Muslim Brotherhood and the deteriorating health of the Egyptian president.
Inverse proportional relationship.
... "Also in Egypt, there are signs of wavering of the regime," Kaplinski said. "The entire area is very dynamic and highlighted by a lack of certainty."
Dynamic is a kind word for it, and lack of certainty is an understatement.
Hours later, Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz and Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz released a joint statement that described Jordan's future as bright. Officials said Naveh would also send an apology to Jordan. Kaplinski was not publicly rebuked.
Made nice, but the cat's out of the bag.
| I'd go with the bright future scenario for Jordan, for the reasons I outlined above. Egypt's always been a basket case. |
Responsible to state, frightening in its implications.
| I'm not overjoyed by the Hamas victory, but I'm not as surprised as the Israelis seem to be. Surely they could see Fatah splitting into two competing factions, fighting over the boodle before they got it? But Hamas has its own built-in problems. First, they're no more immune to corruption than Fatah. The Hamas bigs live just as large. Second, Meshaal hasn't set foot in Paleostine in years. He lives in Damascus and flits around to Beirut and occasionally Teheran. Those are his owners, not the Paleostinians, and he's looking out for his owners' interests. There's not a solution to that problem since he's likely to eat a few feet of missile if he comes back and a bus booms. |
I have a feeling that we won't be going anywhere, given unfinished business in Iran.
Officials said Al Qaida and Hamas could consolidate the Arab eastern front. Abu Mussib Al Zarqawi, a Jordanian national who heads the Al Qaida network in Iraq, has been recruiting Palestinians to establish a presence along the Israeli-Jordanian frontier. Over the past two years, Jordan has captured dozens of suspected Al Zarqawi operatives accused of planning attacks against Israeli and U.S. interests.
| Zark started out trying to overthrow the Hashemite monarchy. Al-Tawhid, I'm guessing, is still in business, just not getting quite as much attention from the boss. |
Getting ready for the Big Show against Israel.
"Al Qaida is trying to establish awareness in the Gaza Strip," Naveh said. "The next stage is for terrorism. I don't think Zarqawi will bring terrorists to Gaza. He doesn't have to. What he can do is exploit Hamas and take it [attacks] to another level."
IMHO, we are seeing the greatest threat to Israel forming right before our eyes. The key to so many things---disasters as well as solutions---is Iran and how to deal with the M²s.