His astonishing comeback has severely undermined the authority of Viktor Yushchenko, 52, the embattled pro-western president and hero of the orange revolution. Yanukovich has promised to steer Ukraine away from the West and back into Russia’s sphere of influence. “I have no doubts whatsoever that we will win these elections,” said a tanned and buoyant Yanukovich at his party headquarters in Kiev.
“The orange revolution has long been over. It was a populist coup staged by people who made a lot of empty promises and brought Ukraine to the brink of catastrophe. Yushchenko’s policy towards Russia is not in our national interest and in the eyes of the people the concept of EU membership has been discredited. As for Nato, Ukraine isn’t ready to join it.”
According to the latest polls, YanukovichÂ’s Party of Regions could win more than 30% of the vote on March 26. Our Ukraine, YushchenkoÂ’s party, is expected to get no more than 20%. It could be overtaken by the party of Yulia Timoshenko, 46, the presidentÂ’s charismatic former ally. He sacked her as prime minister last September and has since accused her of corruption, a claim she denies. At stake are YushchenkoÂ’s survival as a political force and the future of the orange revolution he led with Timoshenko.
Under constitutional changes introduced on January 1, parliament rather than the president now chooses the prime minister, most of the government and the regional leaders. Without a majority in the country’s 450- seat parliament, Yushchenko, whose personal approval rating has plummeted by 50% in a year, will be leader only in name. He may face a painful choice between forming a coalition with Yanukovich or Timoshenko. Worse still, he risks seeing them unite against him.The prospect of Yanukovich’s return to the forefront of Ukrainian politics has filled supporters of the orange revolution with dread. It has also dismayed western governments which were quick to support Yushchenko when he challenged the authoritarian regime of Leonid Kuchma, the former president who was close to Moscow. “The country is going from crisis to crisis,” said Yanukovich. “People look back now and see that under my leadership things were much better than they are now. I predicted that the revolution was just pure populism and people now see that I was right.”
Yanukovich has opposed moves by YushchenkoÂ’s government to re-privatise companies which were sold off cheaply by the state under Kuchma. Yanukovich is close to some of UkraineÂ’s most powerful oligarchs, especially Rinat Akhmetov, the countryÂ’s richest man. There are fears that YanukovichÂ’s comeback could herald a return to the corruption of the Kuchma era. It was during YanukovichÂ’s time as prime minister that the state sold UkraineÂ’s largest steel plant to a consortium led by Akhmetov and KuchmaÂ’s son-in-law for $811m, even though a foreign bidder had offered $1.5 billion. After the orange revolution the plant was renationalised and put up for sale again. It fetched $4.81 billion.
Such high-profile initiatives have failed to halt the decline of YushchenkoÂ’s public standing. Protesters who braved sub-zero temperatures for two weeks to force Yanukovich out lament promises made by Yushchenko during the peaceful uprising that have since been betrayed.
The president’s difficulties have been compounded by the state of Ukraine’s stagnant economy. Having been seen as decisive and brave during the revolution, Yushchenko looked weak and indecisive earlier this year during a row with Moscow over gas prices which led to supplies being temporarily cut off. “Few politicians in the world enjoyed Yushchenko’s popularity,” said Oleg Zvarych, a driver who took part in the revolution. “As for Yanukovich, I thought we had seen the last of him. His comeback is too depressing for words.”