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| Southeast Asia |
| Jihadist threat to Thai insurgency |
| 2006-03-14 |
| Thailand should consider entering into talks with militants behind the southern insurgency if it wants to avoid the separatist struggle being hijacked by international Jihadists, analysts said yesterday. A commentary in the pan-Arab Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper last Friday, warned that “international Jihadist circles” on the internet and in mosques across the world were discussing the possibility of taking their global fight to Thailand’s Muslim-majority southern border provinces. “The buzz in Islamist circles is that well-funded Jihadist organizations may be preparing a takeover bid for the southern Thailand insurgency,” the article by veteran Middle East journalist Amir Taheri said. “Urgent moves must be made to prevent the southern Thailand rebellion from becoming another front in the global war that Islamist terror is waging against many different states, including half a dozen Muslim ones,” he said. Local analysts yesterday agreed that international extremists could try to hijack the southern insurgency. “The possibility of international Jihadists infiltrating the current insurgency any time soon is just that: a possibility. But it is certainly not one that should be discounted,” Tony Davis, a security analyst for Janes Information Group said yesterday. Most analysts agreed however that even though the southern insurgency remained a localized conflict, the Thai government would be wise to act now to prevent it from widening. “Southern Thailand is still a theater of local jihad,” said Rohan Gunaratna, a terrorism expert at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies in Singapore. “It has still not graduated into the global jihad stage, but certainly we are seeing some indications of interest on the part of Middle Eastern groups and Indonesian groups to take it to a regional and a global level.” Bangkok should seriously consider opening channels of communication with militant groups involved in the violence if it wants to prevent foreign infiltration of the conflict, Gunaratna said. “I think it is critical to act now because every day we are seeing that the groups are becoming more religious. They are losing their national character slowly but steadily,” he said. “They are still not radicalized to a high extent and are still open to negotiations.” Experts have highlighted the infiltration of locally based insurgencies in Kashmir, Chechnya and even the Philippines by international Jihadist groups as a warning to the Thai government. Commentators have suggested Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono invite southern rebel leaders and Thai officials to Jakarta to arrange a cease-fire followed by negotiations. Many analysts agree that such a move is realistic and that Yudhoyono would be an obvious candidate to host the talks. However, Bangkok has consistently ruled out negotiating with the shadowy insurgent groups behind almost daily attacks in Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat that have claimed more than 1,200 lives since January 2004. Defense Minister Gen Thammarak Isarangura Na Ayutthaya reiterated yesterday that Bangkok would not negotiate with militants. “It is not right to recognize outlawed organizations. Even the communist party, which was larger in the past, was never recognized by the government,” Gen Thammarak told ThaiDay yesterday. “If those experts know who the militants are, then just bring them to me or deputy prime minister Chitchai.” No group has ever stepped forward to take responsibility for the violence in the region. However, some analysts believe militant groups may come forward if Bangkok were ready to open to talks. The Pattani United Liberation Organization (PULO), many of whose leaders live in exile in Sweden, have come forward on several occasions as a front group for the separatist cause in the Muslim border provinces. However, it is unclear how much influence they actually have. PULO has been fighting for decades for independence in Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat and Satun, which formed part of the independent Sultanate of Patani before it was annexed by Thailand in 1902. In January, PULO offered to drop long-standing demands for independence in the region if the government agreed to come to the negotiating table. However, the offer was rejected by Bangkok, who reiterated its policy not to negotiate with “groups who resorted to violence.” |
| Posted by:Dan Darling |
| #2 "Thailand should consider entering into talks with militants behind the southern insurgency if it wants to avoid the separatist struggle being hijacked by international Jihadists." Contrary to the assertion here, local Islamic “militants” have already been “hijacked” by international Jihadists. (by, among others, the Malaysian Kampulan Mujahedin (KMM).) But for the sake of discussion, assume their demands are completely of a regional concern, does logic dictate that capitulation with these thugs would eliminate the threat of infiltration from the Islamists with global aspirations? IMO…not a chance. Just a theory here, but I think these so-called “analysts” have an agenda other then thwarting international terrorism. |
| Posted by: DepotGuy 2006-03-14 10:44 |
| #1 Article: “Southern Thailand is still a theater of local jihad,” said Rohan Gunaratna, a terrorism expert at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies in Singapore. “It has still not graduated into the global jihad stage, but certainly we are seeing some indications of interest on the part of Middle Eastern groups and Indonesian groups to take it to a regional and a global level.” Bangkok should seriously consider opening channels of communication with militant groups involved in the violence if it wants to prevent foreign infiltration of the conflict, Gunaratna said. “I think it is critical to act now because every day we are seeing that the groups are becoming more religious. They are losing their national character slowly but steadily,” he said. “They are still not radicalized to a high extent and are still open to negotiations.” You mean like Singapore opened up negotiations with the far more dangerous (and numerous) Communist Party of Malaya? Never happened. Singapore hanged terrorists convicted of murder, tortured members for information and jailed them indefinitely. Some of them are still in jail after four decades of detention without trial. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2006-03-14 03:50 |