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| Terror Networks |
| Some analysts see disharmony in al-Qaeda tapes |
| 2006-05-01 |
| The broadcasts last week by three of the world's best-known terrorist leaders shared at least one common goal, American intelligence officials say. They sought to embarrass the West by showing that the terrorists were still able to communicate with their followers, despite the intensive efforts to capture or kill them and the $25 million bounty that is on each of their heads. But the officials interviewed on Sunday also said that the messages of the three men — Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi — show the differing motives and political interests of Al Qaeda's leadership. Though messages from the three leaders have never before surfaced in the same week, the officials said there was no evidence that the men coordinated the timing of the release of the statements or collaborated on the language used in them. Mr. Zarqawi, the leader of a terrorist group in Iraq that has allied itself with Al Qaeda, used his message to assert his primacy as a leader within the insurgency in Iraq and perhaps beyond, the officials said. Mr. bin Laden and Mr. Zawahiri — both of whom have diminished control over terrorist operations — seemed to be trying to position themselves as the inspirational voices of a broader militant movement. Some intelligence experts said the tapes were likely to fuel the belief that Mr. bin Laden and Mr. Zarqawi were emerging as rivals for pre-eminence within Al Qaeda. Although Mr. Zarqawi pledged loyalty to Mr. bin Laden in 2004 and referred to him in his most recent videotape as "our prince," there was little else in his fiery message to suggest he was operating under orders from Mr. bin Laden. While analysts are continuing to pore over the messages looking for hints of code words, phrasing or images that might be a signal of a future terrorist attack or yield clues to where or when the messages were created, the officials said the broadcasts had not yet furnished fresh evidence that might help the hunt for the terrorist leaders. They cautioned that because the tapes were created in secrecy and sometimes passed through multiple channels before being broadcast, there might have been large gaps between the times the three broadcasts were made. Still, each of the recordings refers to events that suggest the recordings were recent. The officials, including some with access to highly classified intelligence on counterterrorism issues, were given anonymity to speak more freely about delicate information. American officials said that Mr. Zarqawi's 34-minute video, which was broadcast on Tuesday on a Web site used by jihadist groups, was the most surprising of the three statements. In the video, Mr. Zarqawi claimed responsibility for the hotel bombings last November in Amman, Jordan, that killed at least 57 people. Intelligence officials have said that such claims of responsibility are an effective fund-raising tool. Mr. Zarqawi's video was shown two days after an audio message by Mr. bin Laden was broadcast by Al Jazeera. Then on Friday, a video by Mr. Zawahiri surfaced on the Internet. Mr. Zawahiri, who is Mr. bin Laden's chief deputy and is also regarded as one of his spokesmen, said that hundreds of suicide bombers in Iraq had "broken America's back." The officials believe Mr. Zarqawi, a Jordanian, had been trying to lower his profile in recent months to "put an Iraqi face" on the insurgency. But appearing in black fatigues with an ammunition belt strapped across his chest, Mr. Zarqawi seemed to be asserting himself as the most aggressive presence within Al Qaeda. He said that the United States would leave Iraq in "defeat and humiliation." Officials who have seen the tape said it was a bold attempt by Mr. Zarqawi, who has in the past appeared in videos with his face hidden. "It's an effort on his part to quell rumors that he had been marginalized and to portray himself as a leader of the global jihad," one counterterrorism official said. Mr. Zarqawi's video seemed intended for Iraqi viewers. He struck poses that appealed to many Iraqis, showing his bare forearms, holding up a heavy machine gun and speaking derisively about the American occupation. The display broke months of quiet, in which Mr. Zarqawi refrained from making statements while his group, Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, claimed it had joined an organization called The Freedom Fighter Council, led by a man with an Iraqi name, Abdullah al-Baghdadi. The tactic could have been intended to soften the group's reputation. Many Iraqis who use violence to oppose the occupation began to turn away from Mr. Zarqawi after he openly called on fighters to kill Shiite civilians last fall. Iraqi and American military officials interpreted the release of the video as showing that Mr. Zarqawi was weak, because he felt the need to advertise with his muscles and guns. The timing, they said, was calculated to make Iraqi leaders look helpless as they began to form a permanent government, a process that was set in motion last Saturday. "The government formation is a big blow to him," said General Mahdi Sabih al-Ghrawi, the commander of Iraq's Public Order Brigade, a large special police force that assists the Iraqi Army in patrolling areas in and around Baghdad. He said Iraqi intelligence officers believe Mr. Zarqawi is in southern Anbar Province. The State Department's annual survey of global terrorism, issued on Friday, described the insurgency in Iraq as increasingly fractured. The December elections created fissures within the insurgency, the report noted, resulting in some armed clashes between Iraqi Sunnis who had chosen to join the political process and elements of Mr. Zarqawi's network. American officials said that Mr. bin Laden and Mr. Zawahiri face a far different political dynamic. The bin Laden network that existed before the attacks of September 2001 has been largely destroyed. Mr. bin Laden is no longer believed capable of exercising daily operational control over an organization that once supplied its members with money, military training and false papers. The officials said that as a result, Mr. bin Laden, who is believed to be in hiding somewhere along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, must increasingly resort to broadcast messages to inspire his followers. Last year, according to the State Department survey, Mr. bin Laden and his deputy began to see propaganda and morale-building as their primary mission. "By year's end, it appeared that A.Q. senior leadership often inspired terrorist activity but could not direct it as fully as in the past," the report stated, referring to Al Qaeda by its initials. In their recent messages, Mr. bin Laden and Mr. Zawahiri praised the insurgency but also sought to project Al Qaeda as a factor in a wider war in places far from Iraq. Mr. bin Laden accused the United States and the European Union of waging "a Zionist-crusader war on Islam," citing their decision to freeze aid payments to the Palestinian government. He urged his followers to go to Sudan to fight any Western peacekeeping force that is sent there. The State Department found that the strategy appeared to make political sense. It said in its annual survey of global terrorism, "By remaining at large, and intermittently vocal, bin Laden and Zawahiri symbolize resistance to the international community, demonstrate they retain the capability to influence events, and inspire actual and potential terrorists." |
| Posted by:Dan Darling |
| #1 What good are these jihatti website videoblogs if they can't even set up a "Paypal" tip jar? |
| Posted by: Capsu 78 2006-05-01 13:28 |