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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| StrategyPage: The Coming Islamic Republic of Russia |
| 2006-05-22 |
| Quantifying what many here already know. The government is trying to encourage Russian women to have more children, in order to reverse a population decline. Bad habits (too much booze, poor diet, not enough exercise) has caused life expectancy for men to continually decline over the last two decades (this began before the Cold War ended). At the same time, women, discouraged by bad economic conditions, had fewer children. The new cash bonus, and other benefits, offered to women to have more children is not, apparently, working. If present trends continue, the population of Russia will decline from 143 million to 100 million by 2050. Not only that, but by 2050, most of the population may be Moslem. More likely Russia will further break up along muslim/non-muslim lines. Currently, about 15 percent of Russians are Moslem, and the average Moslem family has three or more children, while the average non-Moslem family has one or two. While Christian (largely Slavic) Russians have seen their numbers tumble, the Moslem population of Russia has grown over 40 percent since 1989 (from births, migration and conversions). There has also been a religious revival, with the number of mosques growing from under a thousand when the Soviet Union collapsed, to over 8,000 today. That means Moslem men drink a lot less, and live healthier, and longer, lives. Rest at link. |
| Posted by:ed |
| #9 Mars needs men Grom. |
| Posted by: 6 2006-05-22 17:45 |
| #8 A meat-grinder ground war with India? |
| Posted by: anonymous5089 2006-05-22 15:13 |
| #7 A preference for male children means they have to go to war (rape of the Sabines) twenty years down the road |
| Posted by: gromgoru 2006-05-22 15:09 |
| #6 Yes, DoDo, but in the meantime they are quietly occupying village after village ever deeper on the Russian side of the border. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2006-05-22 12:23 |
| #5 Maybe not so chinese. China is experiencing its own demographic drop, spurred by the one child policy and exacerbated by a militant preference for male children. |
| Posted by: DoDo 2006-05-22 12:09 |
| #4 "And much more Chinese." I left my heart... In Sino-Siberia... |
| Posted by: random styling 2006-05-22 10:29 |
| #3 Orothodox church won't let other Christian religions in but they allow this????? They still haven't learned we have to hang together instead of separately. |
| Posted by: anonymous2u 2006-05-22 10:09 |
| #2 A skill that we seem to be losing. Now, America seems to be in the business of letting other countries occupy IT. |
| Posted by: Perfesser 2006-05-22 09:47 |
| #1 Russia will probably have a larger Moslem minority by 2050, but not a majority, because even Moslem women have fewer children as they become educated and more affluent. Dunnigan just couldn't make up his mind. By 2050, I would suspect Russia's population will be much larger than this. And much more Chinese. The only question is whether you are considering the portion west of the Urals or east. Either way, the Russians will be history unless they can luck into better leadership than pooty. But history and demographics seem to be running against them. It just goes to prove that if you're going to have a war with America, it's best to let them occupy your country when it's over. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2006-05-22 08:25 |