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| China-Japan-Koreas |
| Seoul |
| 2006-07-12 |
| This is purely personal opinion and mostly to see what sort of response might be forthcoming from RBers. I'm no expert on Korea. Just a guy who's read a bunch of stuff. Here's what I've taken away from that spotty self-education. I'm sure there are all sorts of solid objections out there, but this is how it appears to me today. Seoul. Seoul translates to "capitol". Due to its proximity to the border, Seoul has been vulnerable to NKor artillery attack since the ceasefire of July, 1953. There is some off and on political will (proponents: Park, 1978; Roh, 2002) to relocate "Seoul" to the Chungchong region (in the center of SKor) by 2014. Looks like that's going to be too late, IMO and it's far easier said than done. Greater Seoul is actually 13 adjoining cities, IIRC, represents 12% of SKor territory, approx 25% of the population, and approx 50% of the economic output. It is now vulnerable to SCUDs, (Nodongs, Rodongs, DingDongs) as well as artillery. When NKor could only threaten SKor, Seoul in particular, it made strategic sense to have US troops there to deter attack and to make it clear Seoul, though extremely vulnerable, would be the tripwire and would be defended at all costs. It was an effective deterrent. SKor was satisfied with this arrangement since they almost universally harbor a deep desire for reunification and were willing to live with the situation and walk the tightrope of Seoul's vulnerability in hopes of finding a route leading to that end. 53 years of stalemate have passed without reunification. Nothing has actually changed except NorK has acquired far more dangerous weapons than artillery and SCUDs. The equation has also become regional, since NKor can now threaten Japan - and soon the US. Japan is enough, however, to change the military picture and the US has been reassessing the situation since learning of NKor advances in nuclear weapons and delivery systems. Adding in the political changes in SKor further alters the logical US view and position regards defending Seoul with US forces. Seoul is no longer the only "asset" under threat and the present tripwire is an obsolete response. Before NKor can effectively deliver on the threat beyond Seoul, it must be neutralized. Utterly and completely. Permanently. Will NKor attack Seoul if attacked? Almost certainly. The decades of stalemate have yielded no reasonable chance of a reunification other than capitulation by SKor. The SKor gambit has failed. Even if SKor were to suddenly begin serious efforts to reunify, it would not change the threat situation as no one could reasonably believe that NorK would disarm and Japan would still be vulnerable. On the contrary, that is most likely what Kim Jong Il prays for: SKor capitulation saving his regime and fanatical cult military and boosting his technological and industrial capabilities 100-fold. Should we wait for him to perfect missiles that can reliably hit Japan and the US with nuclear payloads? That is his clear intention. He has the nuclear warheads, we're told. We can see he's working on the delivery systems. He'll eventually create a working package that will truly threaten the existence of Japan and the Western half of the US. There is nothing to stop him, except either being militarily destroyed or sealed off via some impervious layered ABM systems. The problem is that an ABM system would not be a solution, since none are perfect and we are talking about nuclear weapons. It would merely be more stalemate, more stop-gap. Another decade, perhaps much less, of makeshift defense from an insane regime which would be busily working to overcome the ABM systems. And what if there was a sudden reunification, voluntary or not? That would likely accelerate events dramatically. Trusting the SKor population not to do the stupidest thing imaginable is not something I care to do. The threat grows every day. Japan is already under the gun. Trying to perfect systems which will be able to shoot down NorK missiles is not a permanent answer. Kim Jong Il will not disarm or cease attempting to become a global nuclear power. We have but one alternative that can be termed a real solution. Time's up. Game over. Obliterate everything in NorK. Seoul is forfeit. Always has been. My $0.02. P.S. Another amateur opinion: Start selling any stock in SKor companies whose manufacturing facilities and equipment yards are within 200-250 miles of the DMZ. I'm not talking about HQ offices - I mean the real stuff, the equipment, the rolling stock, the plants. Perhaps, if you're a real smart gambler, start buying stock in construction (road, and rail, for example) companies whose equipment and manufaturing facilities are beyond 200-250 miles from the DMZ. They'll have to rebuild. |
| Posted by:Gravirong Angarong2242 |
| #9 In the inscrutable game, China must understand that if Nkor collapses and leaves the field to Skor, the Americans will leave the peninsula. So, why doesnÂ’t China want the Americans to leave? They must understand by now that the policy is only making the Japanese-American alliance tighter not weaker. Keeping the Americans around only means more obstruction concerning Taiwan. So why are they doing these things to keep the Americans around? Something is going on here that is not apparent, because their actions mean they want the Americans around. |
| Posted by: Uninetle Spinesh9362 2006-07-12 16:57 |
| #8 If we have a way to take out Kimmie and the leadership, we should do it now. China is not about to lose us as a trading partner and after Kimmie there is no power left and whomever took over would not have the cult appeal and little following. |
| Posted by: Cyber Sarge 2006-07-12 14:35 |
| #7 Hence my suggestion of quarantine. Perhaps by the JMSDF. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2006-07-12 11:28 |
| #6 Hence my use of the qualifier "credibly". |
| Posted by: AzCat 2006-07-12 11:25 |
| #5 I doubt the Chinese would stop running the trains based on that threat. They'd know it was hollow when they heard Hagel/McCain/Lugar condemn it on the Sunday morning shows and threaten the president with impeachment. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2006-07-12 11:10 |
| #4 Quarantine Nkor and its economy collapses and its exports of weapons end. Credibly announce that any attacks by N. Korea or by others with arms from or built with the assistance of N. Korea will earn a military response against China and you do the same. |
| Posted by: AzCat 2006-07-12 11:05 |
| #3 Let me add something to the discussion, which may or may not be worth the bandwidth. I think SKor wants the status quo to continue indefinitely. Sure, they don't want Seoul getting shelled, nor do they want to be ruled by Kim Jong-Il; nobody in their right mind wants either of those things to occur. But . . . they also don't want Kim to go down, because then they (at least think they) get saddled with the rebuilding costs for NKor. They look north and see a giant vacuum cleaner ready to suck the life out of their economy. Therefore, cold-hearted as it may seem--those are fellow Koreans starving up there, after all--the inertia is all on the side of, well, inertia. That worked just fine for 53 years, when SKor's self-interest was most at stake, but once Kimmie attains the capability to hit Tokyo and Harbin and Seattle, there are other calculations of self interest by other countries that come into play. I doubt the Japanese can be persuaded to risk Osaka to protect Seoul, and China (at least) is cold-blooded enough to trade away collateral damage to Seoul to eliminate a threat to Mukden. |
| Posted by: Mike 2006-07-12 10:25 |
| #2 Quarantine Nkor and its economy collapses and its exports of weapons end. No need for violence beyond boarding parties. If the Norks want to start the artillery barrage because of that, Sorks should do something now. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2006-07-12 10:10 |
| #1 Will NKor attack Seoul if attacked? Almost certainly. They could shoot salvos of missiles for generations into Seoul. When I was stationed at Camp Casey, between Seoul and the border, I always suspected that weÂ’d be sacrificed because the politicos wouldnÂ’t allow us to deploy in order not to provoke the Nkors when things started getting hot. . So, weÂ’d know they were coming when the first round of firing came crashing into our position. TheyÂ’ve had decades to get the exact position of every building on the compounds. When I was there the whole compound conducted an exit exercise. Using the >two< gates, it took over 24 hours to move all the personnel and equipment out. Casey was nicely tucked into a topographical cul-de-sac. The problem for the Nkors is that theyÂ’d largely be limited to rocket and artillery. When Skor had very little in the way of a trained Army, it took the commies days to get into Seoul . Today, not only do the Skors have a real army as things are ajudged these days, but Seoul itself is one major metro complex. The topography leading into Seoul channelizes the routes and the terrain offers great opportunity to establish hard defensive positions. Unless you have the training and technology the Americans have, city fighting is going to be a bitch and because you quickly end up compartmentalizing the battlefield, the fight can only be pushed by local initiative, something a Â’mother may IÂ’ command system can not effectively apply. Yes, you can push bodies into the fight, but it is just a meat grinder like WWI. That approach is further undermined by the American/western concept of deep battle which would be attacking and attriting the follow on reserves in those geographical lanes to the city. Battle doesnÂ’t continue if you have nothing to throw in. How many and what yield are the Nkor's nukes [note well, they haven't been 'proofed' yet]? And Seoul like Nagasaki has some topography issues which will mitigate some effects. One or two can do some serious damage, but anymore than the Kobe earthquake did to that city? Some of this may just be the Hollywood scare effect. |
| Posted by: Chereper Whush1804 2006-07-12 10:05 |