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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
IDF: Nasrallah talk less bellicose
2006-07-27
An Israel Defense Forces analysis of the messages transmitted by Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah to his men during the fighting in Lebanon reveals a slightly different tone from the one he took in three public television interviews in the same period and in an interview with the Lebanese newspaper A-Safir. A senior officer said Nasrallah took a less bellicose position when engaging in his internal dialogue in his organization, than in his appearances in the Arab media - but he remained aggressive.

Nasrallah's tone is apologetic in his messages and he explains that Israel escalated the confrontation by striking deep inside Lebanon after the soldiers were abducted, the officer said. Nasrallah admits that his organization is having morale problems and says his group will receive support and encouragement. He adds that not only Hezbollah, but also Israel, has been badly hit. He also complains frequently that the Arab states have deserted Hezbollah and the Lebanese and are not helping them against Israel.

The army admits that Nasrallah is prepared to continue fighting for a long time and that its military strength has not been broken in a way that will prevent it from carrying out its objectives. Nasrallah is continuing to function although he is underground.

All the media interviews came at his initiative and his men dictated the terms to the journalists to ensure his safety.

Israel is sparing no effort to try and assassinate him.

Hezbollah is believed to be planning additional surprises, as Nasrallah said, and these could include detonating a drone carrying explosives over Israel or firing Iranian Zilzal rockets at Tel Aviv. It is possible that Nasrallah will want to send such a missile as a last move before a cease-fire is set in motion, in order to serve as a deterrent in future rounds of fighting with Israel, the officer said.

Since the start of the fighting, the officer added, Hezbollah has suffered two significant hits: The bombing of its rocket alignment particularly the long-range rockets, and the losses of fighters which, after the latest ground battles, are estimated at around 100.

The officer said that, among those killed were senior activists.
Posted by:Nimble Spemble

#19  hearatz is a mouthpiece for socialist hegemony.

forget islamofascism, thats the appendage used by the brain trust at the top to cultivate armies of useful idiots, all the leaders of the opposition are socialists....surprised?
the cold war is on and the useful idiots are the religious fanatics. Every movement needs to coesxist within an economic system....guess which system they have all coallessed around! the one and only ....socialism; disease of the pseudo elite.
Posted by: Shaiting Elmaper4311   2006-07-27 21:45  

#18  I've always found the JP to be much more to my liking than Haaretz. Haaretz still believes in Oslo. Yes, on reflection I would think they probably do see themselves as Israel's NYT while they see the JP as Israel's New York Post. They're wrong in that assessment but none are so blind...(just like the NYT).
Posted by: mac   2006-07-27 17:33  

#17  I think wretchard may have hit the nail on the head.
His hypothesis that the bombing in Beirut as well as the attacks on the border can only be understood as an attempt to disorientate the Hezbollah leadership (head) from the cadre (body). Releasing this statement would fit into that strategy of severing the head from the body by intimating that they are able to hack into the communication between both at will, in order to disorientate the group.
Posted by: tipper   2006-07-27 17:30  

#16  Ha'aretz thinks it is the NYT of Israel, and so does the NYT, which links to it as one of the international newspapers it recommends. That said, I think Ha'aretz is thinking in terms of "the newspaper of record" and not "on the other side." Whatever Ha'aretz's conceits, when my father moved to the US, he got a mail subscription to the Jerusalem Post, despite being so Labour that he was the #2 man in Israel's OSHA for a number of years after independence (hwas responsible for the northern half of the country including the Haifa docks, where he instituted the wearing of hard hats and steel-toed shoes, cutting deaths from 1 per thousand man-hours to less than 1/year (yes, I'm very proud of him -- subsequently he went into the biochemistry professor shtick)).
Posted by: trailing wife   2006-07-27 17:25  

#15  Blame Giulio Douhet! Italian military officer and early advocate of airpower. He was an early supporter of strategic bombing and the military superiority of air forces. He served in World War I, organizing Italy's bombing campaign, but was court-martialed for criticizing the Italian high command by publicly declaiming Italy's aerial weakness. He was released when his theories were proven true by the defeat of Italian arms by the Austrian Air Force at Caporetto. He was later recalled and was promoted (1921) to general. In 1922 he was appointed head of Italy's aviation program by Benito Mussolini. His book Command of the Air (1921) was very influential, especially in Great Britain and the United States and was regarded as a classic by early airpower theorists. He argued that command of an enemy's air space and subsequent bombing of industrialized centers would be so disruptive and destructive that the pressure for peace would be overwhelming. He maintained that control of the air could win a war regardless of land or sea power. Douhet's theories remain very popular, especially among military aviators. He is known as the father of airpower.

Posted by: Besoeker   2006-07-27 17:12  

#14  Several commenters at The Cap't's are reporting
It seems that among the treasures the IDF uncovered, was the information on the BUNKER SYSTEM. Which contained deeply buried reserves of missiles, launchers, food, and water. That's why there's been more bombing around and in Beirut.

I can find no other source about this. Anyone know if this is true? Thanks
Posted by: Sherry   2006-07-27 17:04  

#13  Far too much handwringing, he "sounds" less bellicose.

Meantime, the missiles keep flying into Israel killing and wounding innocence, there are still two soldiers kidnapped, there were 8 soldiers who loved ones wish were still alive.

Nasal's best sounds will be his last.
Posted by: Captain America   2006-07-27 16:37  

#12  hahahahahhah LOL Matt!
Bad Lawyer! Bad Lawyer!
Posted by: 6   2006-07-27 16:33  

#11  Thanks lh.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble   2006-07-27 16:28  

#10  Israel is reading Hezbollah's mail...

Any American lawyer could fix that problem easily:

"This terrorgram contains information that is intended only for the recipient named and may be confidential and subject to the terrorist communications privilege. Inshallah, if you are not the intended recipient or an agent responsible for delivering this communication to the intended recipient, or worse yet, if you are a Zionist occupier of Palestine, you are hereby notified that you have received this terrorgram by error, and that any review, dissemination, or distribution of this terrorgram is strictly prohibited by several suras of the Q'uran. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by telephone at 1-800-BOMB and delete the original without forwarding it to the Mossad. Thank you, infidel pig."
Posted by: Matt   2006-07-27 15:45  

#9  "I'm not so sure about that. My understanidng, it is supposed to be pretty liberal and anti-government. Anybody from Israel able to comment?"

Theyre definitely on the dovish side, no friends to West Bank settlers, perpetually hopeful about Abbas, etc, etc. But this war even the doves (like Yossi Beilin) are supporting. I doubt theyd leak something they thought would harm national security. Note its sourced to a senior officer.
Posted by: liberalhawk   2006-07-27 15:24  

#8  gorb

nope - I don't work for the NYTimes.
I never have.
In fact, I've never worked for any daily, weekly or monthly news pub
Posted by: mhw   2006-07-27 15:11  

#7  While shouting 'Death to Israel' for years to his followers, Mr. Nasrallh forgot to mention that an attack on Israel would be no 'cake walk'. Now reality is setting in as Israel continues to kick their asses.
Posted by: Master Chef   2006-07-27 14:18  

#6  Why would Israel release this information?

This seems to make the NYTimes security leaks look trivial.


mhw: Do you happen to work for the NYT? :-)
Posted by: gorb   2006-07-27 14:14  

#5  Haaretz is the NYT of Israel (unlikely).

I'm not so sure about that. My understanidng, it is supposed to be pretty liberal and anti-government. Anybody from Israel able to comment?
Posted by: Nimble Spemble   2006-07-27 13:48  

#4  "IDF: Nasrallah talk less bellicose"

He'll be even less bellicose when he's hanging by the neck at the end of a rope. Hunt the fucker down and kill him.

Posted by: Flinelet Angavitle5908   2006-07-27 13:41  

#3  Possibilities:

1. Haaretz is the NYT of Israel (unlikely).

2. Israel wants to use the intercept to undermine pan-Arab support for Hezbollah and the morale of Hezbollah and its sponsors (Iran & Syria), and judges this political objective worth the possible loss of a source of intercepts. (Could be.) With respect to that latter point, it's possible that:

a. Israel has a mole in Hezbollah who provided the intercept, and wants Hezbollah to think their code is broken so as to defect suspicion from the mole; hence, the sourcing to "IDF intercepts." (Possible.)

b. Israel is reading Hezbollah's mail and wants Hezbollah to think there's a mole in its ranks, thereby sowing fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) and maybe provoking fratricide. (Possible.)

c. The whole thing is a fabrication, aimed at FUD-ing the Iranians and Syrians and their meeting with Nasrallah. (Lost less likely than (a) and (b) above, but if it's true, oh my, are these Mossad boys good or what?)

d. Mike has read his Tom Clancy novels and his copy of David Kahn's The Codebreakers too many times. (Definitely!)
Posted by: Mike   2006-07-27 13:41  

#2  Why would Israel release this information?

This seems to make the NYTimes security leaks look trivial.

Posted by: mhw   2006-07-27 13:07  

#1  Mor analysis here from "Captain Ed" Morissey:

This isn't much of a surprise, except for the speed in which Israel has tapped into Hezbollah's internal communications. Nasrallah admitted that he didn't anticipate the overwhelming Israeli response, a miscalculation that certainly has contributed to the declining morale in his organization. After all, Nasrallah made this sound like a milk run, and now the jihadis have another Israeli invasion on their hands.

It also sounds like Nasrallah had to make an accounting of his actions in order to convince his men to continue their fight. Having a commander communicate an apology of this sort indicates a growing dissatisfaction with leadership in the ranks. Nasrallah so far has done nothing to convince anyone that he has a grasp of either strategy or tactics. He has proven that he has no understanding of his enemy, nor much of his putative allies in the region, almost all of whom have declined to rush to his side in this fight.

Nasrallah had better have a victory to show them soon, or he may find himself replaced with wiser counsel.
Posted by: Mike   2006-07-27 13:05  

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