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| Israel-Palestine-Jordan |
| The Danger in Lebanon - Krauthammer - written April 2002 |
| 2006-08-02 |
| Stole this right out from under Rich Lowry at National Review online -- found the article written by Krauthammer in 2002. Sure blows away some of that "disinformation" about intel not knowing of the buildup by the Hez in the south Watch Lebanon. If you want to know where the Israeli-Palestinian war is going, watch Lebanon. If the war goes -- literally -- ballistic, the fuse will have been lit by the Iran-backed Hezbollah guerrillas now firing rockets into Israel from Lebanon. But did Israel not withdraw from Lebanon almost two years ago? Why is there still a problem with Lebanon? Indeed, Israel had been in Lebanon for about 20 years. It was a classic defensive occupation. Israel laid claim to not an inch of Lebanese soil. It diverted not a drop of water. It had no interest in staying. It was in there for one reason: to protect Israel's northern frontier from various guerrillas -- first Yasser Arafat's PLO, then the Lebanese Shiite Party of God (Hezbollah) -- using south Lebanon to attack Israel. Yet for two decades, Israel was hectored to comply with U.N. resolutions demanding Israel's withdrawal. In May 2000, it complied. To ensure that there could be no possible residual territorial dispute, Israel asked the United Nations to draw the line demarcating the true Israeli-Lebanese border -- the so-called Blue Line -- then pulled back behind it. Israel's reward? Hezbollah was not mollified. While its ostensible mission was the liberation of Lebanese territory, it did not disband. On the contrary. It occupied south Lebanon, imported huge new supplies of weapons from Iran and began sporadic cross-border attacks on Israel. Remember, this was written in 2002 Hezbollah has killed Israeli soldiers situated in Israeli territory. It kidnapped three soldiers who have never been seen since. Just one month ago, infiltrators from the Hezbollah territory shot and killed seven Israelis on a road in northern Israel. And now, since the end of March, Hezbollah has embarked on a serious and deadly escalation, firing rockets into Israel. Now we know why Nasrallah was suprised at Israel's response this go around Hezbollah is armed with 8,000 Katyusha rockets. So much for all these media folks crying about US and Israel intel not knowing about all these Katyusha rockets! Somehow, Krauthammer knew! Practically all of northern Israel lies under its guns. They are ready for firing. Hezbollah's spiritual leader, Sheikh Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah, threatened Monday to hit Haifa with Katyusha rockets if Israel dared to respond to Hezbollah attacks. Were that to happen, the northern front would explode. Israel has been sending urgent messages through the United Nations and the United States that it would not tolerate such aggression. It would be forced to counterattack -- on Lebanon, on Syrian army positions in Lebanon and possibly on Syria itself, Syria being Hezbollah's boss and patron. Syria could not withstand such an Israeli attack conventionally. It might then launch its missiles equipped with chemical weapons into Israeli cities. And that could trigger Armageddon. Israel was established so that never again would the gassing of Jews be permitted. Not only, therefore, is Lebanon the most dangerous piece of tinder in the region. It is the most instructive. The Arabs claim that their grievance is Israel's occupation of the West Bank and Gaza. Give it back and you'll have land for peace. Like the Lebanon peace? Western observers totally missed the irony of the Arab summit whose "Saudi peace plan" ostensibly offered Israel peace in return for full territorial withdrawal. The offer was made in Beirut, capital of a country from which Israel had done precisely that -- fully withdraw -- and received in return a more entrenched, emboldened, heavily armed enemy ready to trigger a general war. It gets better. To justify carrying on the war after Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon, Hezbollah concocted a territorial claim on a few acres called the Shebaa Farms. Hezbollah says it is Lebanese territory, and therefore occupied -- a position contrary to the internationally sanctioned Blue Line drawn by the United Nations, hardly a partisan of Israel. What is the Arab League position on all this? Few Western observers actually read the Saudi peace plan adopted by the Arab League. If they had, they would have seen that the plan demands not just the usual withdrawal from Palestinian and Syrian territory but also from "remaining occupied Lebanese territories." But there are no remaining occupied Lebanese territories. Thus the Arab League, in precisely the same document -- no, the same breath -- in which it ostensibly offers land for peace, endorses a totally fabricated, post-withdrawal Lebanese land claim that even the United Nations rejects. Why? Because it serves as an excuse for continuing the war against Israel. Just end the occupation of the West Bank, say the Arabs, and we will guarantee Israel peace. Do you want to see Israel's future if it caves in to that demand? Look at Lebanon, where Israel gave up a defensive occupation and is now looking squarely in the face of Armageddon. |
| Posted by:Sherry |
| #16 Also don't forget media reports of anywhere between several 00 to several 000's of Iranian fighters and "advisors" in Lebanon or coming into Lebanon, espec during the Clinton years. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2006-08-02 23:38 |
| #15 "I guess this puts the nail in the post by the idiot (Megan Mcardle?) subbing for Instapundit." Oh man! I'm glad someone else thinks she's an idiot. I'll start visiting there again when Glenn gets back, but that gal is too much. -M |
| Posted by: Manolo 2006-08-02 22:04 |
| #14 LH, I don't think there will be an unconditional ceasefire UNSC resolution. GWB has said no return to the pre-war status quo and I believe he will stick to his guns. What there will be is a conditional ceasefire. Conditional on some international force that may or may not materialize. Personally, I think this is a masterful strategy. It forces the usual suspects to actually do something substantial and they will be found seriously wanting. It will be fun watching them squirm and wriggle because they can't deliver. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2006-08-02 20:46 |
| #13 "oh yes. And we'll all have free health care, and poor people will no longer be at a disadvantage because enough money was placed in a social program, conservatives will be eliminated from the planet and there will be no more racism, and everyone will live happily ever after" Huh? what are you getting at? There very likely WILL be a UNSC ceasefire resolution, if not this week, than next week. With a US yes vote. At which point Israel will have no choice but to stop its operation. Which puts time pressure on Tzahal. Thats a reality Israel faces, just as it faced it in 1973 and 1967. Are you trying to say that Hezb wont stick to the ceasefire? Probably they wont, but thats not relevant to what I was saying. |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2006-08-02 16:37 |
| #12 In all likelihood there will be a ceasefire very soon oh yes. And we'll all have free health care, and poor people will no longer be at a disadvantage because enough money was placed in a social program, conservatives will be eliminated from the planet and there will be no more racism, and everyone will live happily ever after. |
| Posted by: 2b 2006-08-02 16:09 |
| #11 "People who write about "intel failures" know nothing about the fog of war or even business for that matter. I wonder how many of these folks have ever been in a game or a business situation where an opponent has been trying to outmaneuver him?" Israel simply cant afford to be outmaneuvered. Its Dan Halutz' job to know what there is on the ground in a situation like this. Certainly the Israeli polity was not forgiving of Dayan, Golda Meir, or Chaim Bar Lev for the intell failures prior to the Yom Kippur war. Im not saying that will happen to Halutz, who may very well be able, ultimately, to point to good results. |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2006-08-02 14:50 |
| #10 Let's hope Sir Charles ends up wrong on Syrian chem bombs on Israel. |
| Posted by: Captain America 2006-08-02 14:45 |
| #9 LH: People who write about "intel failures" know nothing about the fog of war or even business for that matter. I wonder how many of these folks have ever been in a game or a business situation where an opponent has been trying to outmaneuver him? |
| Posted by: 11A5S 2006-08-02 14:14 |
| #8 is this an instapundit thing? I havent been reading Instapundit lately, and i havent heard anyone say there was an Israeli intell failure wrt to the number of Hezb missiles. Rather what ive gleaned is that Tzahal was not prepared for the Hezb being as strong ON THE GROUND as they proved to be. So well dug in, bunkers, tunnels, etc. In all likelihood there will be a ceasefire very soon. The big question will then be how much did Tzahal manage to achieve in degrading Hezb capacity - rockets, launchers, "militants", command and control etc. Right now Tzahal is indicating substantial progress, but the number of missiles still being fired is very high. After action reports will be very important. Israel will face two questions - 1. could Tzahal have done more damage if they were better prepared - that will be a judgement of Halutz primarily (Peretz simply hasnt been office long enough for it to reflect much on him, I think) 2. Was it enough damage to offset the political costs of the sustained campaign - that will be a judgement on Peretz and Olmert. |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2006-08-02 10:42 |
| #7 Hmmm... I guess this puts the nail in the post by the idiot (Megan Mcardle?) subbing for Instapundit. She was whining about how the rockets didn't start until after the "Israel invasion". Personally, I've stopped reading Instapundit for the week. May never go back. Letting someone that depraved and ignorant in as a guest poster is a bad sign. |
| Posted by: Robert Crawford 2006-08-02 06:19 |
| #6 Good find Sherry. Best analysis I've read, even though written 4 years ago. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2006-08-02 06:06 |
| #5 "So much for all these media folks crying about US and Israel intel not knowing about all these Katyusha rockets! Somehow, Krauthammer knew!" Everyone that mattered knew and it had been widely reported for a long time. This notion that the number of rockets was unknown and some kind of intelligence failure is just so much propaganda. |
| Posted by: crosspatch 2006-08-02 03:09 |
| #4 The mods must like you better. My stuff always ends up in the scrap bin. |
| Posted by: Captain America 2006-08-02 01:39 |
| #3 Sherry two slaps on the cheek by the mods. BTW: Good find! Krauthammer does it again |
| Posted by: Captain America 2006-08-02 01:37 |
| #2 Eh, it's relevant to today's ops. I'll leave it here. |
| Posted by: Seafarious 2006-08-02 01:06 |
| #1 Opps -- I did it again! Needs to be moved, please Mods. Thanks for being so understanding! |
| Posted by: Sherry 2006-08-02 01:00 |