| Submit your comments on this article | ||
| -Short Attention Span Theater- | ||
| 2006 Tropical Storm Season Now Below Normal | ||
| 2006-08-21 | ||
| News media and environmental activists suffer most (21 August 2006) What a difference a year makes. After the record-breaking 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, the 2006 season is now below normal. As of yesterday (20 August) three tropical storms will have formed in the Atlantic in an "average" year, which is the same number that have formed this year so far. Because of multi-year averaging, that means that today (August 21) slightly more than three storms would have formed, making this year (statistically speaking) just below normal. In the hurricane category, this year is decidedly below normal, with no hurricanes so far, while by this date 1.5 hurricanes have formed in the average of years 1944 though 2005. Part of the reason for the slow season is that tropical western Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are running about normal, if not slightly below normal. In contrast, at the same time last year SSTs in the same region were running well above normal. The cooler SSTs in the Atlantic are not an isolated anomaly. In a research paper being published next month in Geophysical Research Letters, scientists will show that between 2003 and 2005, globally averaged temperatures in the upper ocean cooled rather dramatically, effectively erasing 20% of the warming that occurred over the previous 48 years.
With only 3 named storms compared to 9 on this date last year, it is nearly impossible at this late date to have a season anywhere near as busy as last season, which totaled 27 by the end of the year. The most recent prediction from the National Weather Service is for there to be 12 to 15 named storms by December -- only half of last year's total. It now looks like that prediction might be too generous. While it is still possible for this hurricane season to end up above normal in activity and reach that forecast, each day that passes without so much as a tropical 'depression' makes that target less and less likely. | ||
| Posted by:Steve |
| #19 The |
| Posted by: flyover 2006-08-21 20:08 |
| #18 Mobile is in a drought, we normaly get more rain than the famed Seattle, but now the rainfall is less than Seattle, so "We have a Drought" (The weathermen like to play with "Facts") |
| Posted by: Redneck Jim 2006-08-21 19:11 |
| #17 We've had no rain for 3 weeks, mostly in the mid 80's with low humidity. It's like Northern California without the low lying coastal fog burning off by midday right here in Central Pennsylvania. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2006-08-21 18:53 |
| #16 Yes, it is the Sun, With Mars, Pluto, and Jupiter showing signs of warming, what else could it be? |
| Posted by: Rob Crawford 2006-08-21 18:45 |
| #15 We've had rain at least every other day, and quite often every day, for the last eight to nine weeks. We're still about 4 inches below average, but almost 5 inches above what we've gotten over the last six years (which is why Colorado is considered in a major drought). No one's been able to explain it completely yet, but much of it has to do with the amount of cooler water flowing along the northwest coast, plus the lower than average jet stream, and cooler low pressure areas coming down from Canada. We had two days of highs in the low 70's this week, and only one day in the last ten with highs above "average" - 88/90 this time of year. We really don't have a clue how the overall ocean/air/solid surface interfaces work (driven by the solar cycle) to produce weather, and thinking we do is hubris cubed. |
| Posted by: Old Patriot 2006-08-21 18:38 |
| #14 I thought the liberals already thought the New York Sun caused global warming. |
| Posted by: Abdominal Snowman 2006-08-21 15:33 |
| #13 It really irritates me when the MSM uses 'normal' as a synonym for average. The average person has one testicle and one breast. As I recall from my statistics many years ago, 'normal' is anything within 2 standard deviations of the average. So last year was a 'normal' hurricane season as is this year. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2006-08-21 14:52 |
| #12 "Scientists" can't even get a five-day forecast right -- another inconvenient truth. |
| Posted by: Darrell 2006-08-21 14:08 |
| #11 Truly an inconvenient truth. |
| Posted by: Seafarious 2006-08-21 13:47 |
| #10 Sorry, higher up is lower down :) |
| Posted by: SwissTex 2006-08-21 13:40 |
| #9 Yes, it is the Sun, but those suffering from BDS just can't find a means yet to wrap their heads around blaming Bush for the Sun. However, I'm sure they're working 'feverishly' on that as we type. |
| Posted by: Phunter Ulalet1168 2006-08-21 13:40 |
| #8 As Ms Trilby Lundberg comments in the post "Watching Gas Prices" higher up: For instance, she calls global warming a "boogeyman for political opportunism." Those who promote the theory are trying to create a power base and "believe global warming is a reason to hike taxes and hike prices," she said. |
| Posted by: SwissTex 2006-08-21 13:34 |
| #7 By jove, I think you've got it NS. |
| Posted by: ed 2006-08-21 13:21 |
| #6 I have to wonder if this has anything to do with sunspots hitting their cyclical peak in 2000 |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2006-08-21 13:03 |
| #5 Global cooling on the rise, Ice Age looms, Bush blamed, news at 11:00 PRECISELY. |
| Posted by: mcsegeek1 2006-08-21 12:51 |
| #4 Don't get too happy just yet. There's a possible tropical depression brewing off of Africa right now that the hurricane centers are watching. And yep, they may be born in the Atlantic, but most of the really ugly ones (Camille, Katrina, etc.) generally seem to do their "growing up" in the Gulf. Keep an eye on the water temps there, too. If the right one makes it there, warm Gulf water could turn it hideous. As for global warming, the ones who have a near religious belief in it anyway are going to think that the cooling trend is caused by....global warming, believe it or not. I forget how one of them made that argument to me, mainly because two minutes into it my head really started to hurt trying to make sense of it all. |
| Posted by: Swamp Blondie 2006-08-21 12:35 |
| #3 When will the MSM propaganda machine get all their memos in order? It is Global Climate Change now, not global warming. Sheeze. Read the freaken memos people! |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2006-08-21 12:35 |
| #2 Nice weather, why does it hate me? |
| Posted by: Ray Nagin 2006-08-21 12:32 |
| #1 And from our Department of Bad Timing: CNSNews.com) - One year after Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast, hundreds of protesters plan to gather outside the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in suburban Washington on Saturday -- "to call for housing and jobs for Katrina survivors and an end to Bush's cover-up of global warming's role in stronger, more destructive hurricanes," a coalition of environmental activist groups said. According to the U.S. Climate Emergency Council, national leaders and activists will read aloud the names of hundreds of people still missing from Katrina, and the event will include passionate speeches, dramatic props, and music." Don't forget your giant puppets |
| Posted by: Steve 2006-08-21 12:23 |