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China-Japan-Koreas
N Korea ‘likely to test nuclear bomb’
2006-09-26
North Korea will probably test a nuclear weapon, with an even chance of doing so this year, as Kim Jong-ilÂ’s regime tries to assert its defiance in the face of increasing international pressure, said Richard Armitage, former US deputy secretary of state.

Mr Armitage, who is urging Washington to talk directly to Pyongyang to try and resolve the nuclear stand-off, estimated there was a 50 per cent chance of a test by the end of the year. “I think it is more likely than not,” Mr Armitage, who served in President George W. Bush’s first administration, told the Financial Times. This follows weeks of speculation that Pyongyang is preparing to prove its nuclear capability and its resolve to resist US demands.

“I think that in their thought-process itÂ’s the next logical escalation. A [North Korean] spy was captured here [in August], there were shots fired in the demilitarised zone and they launched missiles [in July] . . . so their next logical thing is to demonstrate that they actually do have a device,” he said in Seoul yesterday.

South Korean newspapers have for weeks been reporting rumours of preparations for a test. Chung Hyung-keun, a South Korean lawmaker on the national intelligence committee, said last week that North Korea was ready to conduct a test. “All that is needed is Kim Jong-il’s approval,” Mr Chung said, citing South Korean intelligence. “If the US continues the financial sanctions and if China also turns up the heat, North Korea will be forced into a corner and will have to resort to a nuclear test.”
So we're supposed to fold of course.
Amid the sabre-rattling, South Korean, Chinese and US diplomats have been trying to restart the six-party talks aimed at persuading North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons programme. Pyongyang is refusing to return to the talks while Washington imposes financial sanctions that have effectively shut North Korea out of the international banking system.

“I don’t hold with the idea that just because we don’t like some regime we don’t talk to them,” Mr Armitage said yesterday. “After all we didn’t like the Soviet regime and we talked to them and we didn’t like the Mao Zedong regime and we certainly talked to them, and we’ve all benefited from having done so.”
Guy could be a clone for Madeline Allbright.
Posted by:Steve White

#13  We need to make clear to the Chinese they should feel unconstrained to take North Korea when it fails.

NS, this is one of the few times I've ever seen you post something this preposterous. No way do we want more of the Korean peninsula to fall into permanent communist hands. South Korea needs to expand and we need a large, democratic nation right on China's edge to let its inhabitants see exactly what they're missing. Allowing communist China to assimilate North Korea only poses the greater threat to South Korea and the entire region.

Preventing unification (and counterbalancing US military presence), is exactly why China has been propping up Kim's doddering regime all these years.
Posted by: Zenster   2006-09-26 22:21  

#12  If its anything like some of their more recent rocket and missile tests (remember the train that went BOOM a few years ago in Norkland?), we could discover a large, irradiated hole right smack in the middle of Norkland.

They'll be the usual pleas for foreign aid and such. Actually, a little glow in the dark stuff would provide the only light Norkland has at night.
Posted by: Lancasters Over Dresden   2006-09-26 20:42  

#11  ??

Encouraging Chinese territorial aggression is the last thing we should do.
Posted by: john   2006-09-26 17:37  

#10  We need to make clear to the Chinese they should feel unconstrained to take North Korea when it fails. The re-united Germany has been a disaster for all parties. Let's not repeat the mistake.

WTF?
Posted by: RD   2006-09-26 11:48  

#9  The South has no interest in the Norks not getting the bomb. They expect to inherit the North anyway in the reunification. Then they will be a nuclear power. Those cruise missiles can then be aimed at China and Japan with nuclear warheads. Japan won't like being the only non-nuclear northwest Asian nation, so they'll have to nuke.

In the center of it all will be the one irrational player in the theater, Korea.

We need to make clear to the Chinese they should feel unconstrained to take North Korea when it fails. The re-united Germany has been a disaster for all parties. Let's not repeat the mistake.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble   2006-09-26 06:51  

#8  It's to our benifit to talk.
But what else is there to talk about? They've already made the bombs. Let's not prod them but let's not lose ground.

They renigged before on consessions, I'm sure they'll do it again.

I think it's clear, their stubborn bastards who don't lose anything by not talking, while their digging in, so why wouldn't they accept your gifts if you offer it, just to talk.

The South Korean government is scared, tired, and in denile. They're no help.

Shinzo Abe, was elected Japan's prime minister Tuesday. I would suggest Japan to be armed with nukes but there are too many problems with that. Let Daddy handle the big guns!

I believe we are doing the right things now. Large project for a Missle Defense shield in Japan and Pacific, would be nice if it was joint financing between our countries. Also increasing Japan's air force capability would help.
Posted by: Jesing Ebbease3087   2006-09-26 05:32  

#7  Who cares what Armitage thinks? He stabbed the administration in the back over Plame; he has more concern for his own hide than for the country.
Posted by: Robert Crawford   2006-09-26 05:20  

#6  Why is a nuke detonation the next logical thing after firing shots in the DMZ, testing missiles, etc. Why not yet another naval clash or minisub incursion or tunnel?

a) Because they have to up the ante to get our attention

b) They probably will be testing it for customers like Iran
Posted by: lotp   2006-09-26 05:16  

#5  Superhose, don't give away Karl's october surprise.

Posted by: Danking70   2006-09-26 01:22  

#4  Dubya and US INTEL have to verify Kimmie's intentions or premises vv BEIJING. Iff we know anything from the Cold War, its that neither the USSR nor Maoist China will wilfully tolerate any semblance of DE FACTO NUCLEAR INDEPENDENCE/
SOVEREIGNTY BY A PROXY NATION. INDEPENDENT NORTH KOREA = INDEPENDENT TAIWAN, ETC > means Commie Beijing's ambitions for Chinese-centric, Communist-centric, hegemony in Asia-Pacific, espec between 2025-2050, has flown out the coop, AND ISN"T COMING BACK SHORT OF UNILATERAL DIRECT MIL ACTION(S), I.E. WAR. Year 2050 for Chicom superiority over America might as well be Year 2100 or after.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2006-09-26 01:16  

#3  I agree with Armitage in that the next logical step of the extortion is the detonation. It will be interesting to see whether Kim attempts the detonation in time to influence the US elections.
Posted by: Super Hose   2006-09-26 01:00  

#2  Armitage is not being logical. Why is a nuke detonation the next logical thing after firing shots in the DMZ, testing missiles, etc. Why not yet another naval clash or minisub incursion or tunnel? Also, we are trying to talk to them but they refuse to talk unless we make a concession first. That's really what Armitage is advocating. Screw them. Let them test their nuke, get our guys off the peninsula and bomb them "back into the stone age", as Armitage threatened the Paks -- who are a proven nuclear power.
Posted by: JAB   2006-09-26 00:43  

#1  I wonder how Korea will act politically once NK tests a bomb.

Hardline or more flaccid
Posted by: Danking70   2006-09-26 00:41  

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