When Nicaraguans go to the polls on Nov. 5 to elect their next president, they may end up choosing an old-time communist – who could win without even getting a majority of the votes. A victory by Daniel Ortega, whose brutal Sandinista rule in the Central American country ended 16 years ago, is a growing likelihood because of millions being pumped into his campaign by the stridently anti-U.S. Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez. Add to the mix indifference from the U.S. State Department, and Chavez and Cuban dictator Fidel Castro will have a new ally in their growing axis of anti-American states south of the border. Despite defeats at the polls in 1990, 1996, and 2001, Ortega once again is poised to head Nicaragua – he is the frontrunner among five candidates in the national elections.
While Nicaraguans will be the ones to suffer the most from an Ortega victory, fiercely anti-American Hugo Chavez hopes to replicate the recent electoral success of fellow radical Evo Moralez in Bolivia with a similar win in Central America.
Reich insists that Ortega's standing in the polls is due greatly to funding received from Chavez, who is financing the Sandinistas both openly and secretly. By providing the Sandinista mayors of many Nicaraguan towns with subsidized oil and diesel fuel, he is helping them buy votes. But Reich adds that Chavez also is funneling cash to Ortega secretly, which is illegal under Nicaraguan law. While Nicaragua allows foreign campaign contributions from private citizens, foreign government financing of candidates is strictly forbidden.
Ortega and the Sandinistas are also being aided by the democratic opposition's disunity. The anti-Ortega vote is primarily divided among three candidates. Most polls place Ortega with about 30 percent of the vote, followed closely by Eduardo Montealegre with support in the 20s, and two other candidates further behind. Nearly 20 percent of respondents are undecided. Clearly the anti-Sandinista vote surpasses the Sandinistas, but if the democratic opposition doesn't quickly unite, Ortega and the Sandinistas can win in the first round on Nov. 5, thanks to sly maneuvering by pro-Ortega forces:
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