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| China-Japan-Koreas |
| AP's Notions of 'Possible Next Steps' |
| 2006-10-09 |
| A look at possible next steps in the wake of N.Korea nuclear test The Associated Press North Korea announced Monday that it has tested a nuclear weapon, a claim that, if true, would draw world condemnation, possible U.N. Security Council action and sanctions from countries like the United States or Japan. On a wider scale it could lead to an arms race in Asia or increase the risk of nuclear proliferation. A glance of some of the possible next moves in the North Korean nuclear standoff: SHORT-TERM: Expect widespread international condemnation of the test. The United Nations denounced North Korea's plans to detonate a bomb shortly after Pyongyang announced its intentions Oct. 3. North Korea's neighbors may step up diplomacy to formulate a common response. China may hold emergency talks with North Korea in an effort to restart long-stalled six-nation talks on persuading North Korea to abandon its nuclear program. North Korea is likely to push for bilateral talks with the United States. MEDIUM-TERM: Japan may, as it previously threatened, seek punitive measures from the United Nations. Japanese media have reported that Tokyo is looking at ways to step up unilateral sanctions, by hampering trade and imposing more financial restrictions. The United States may follow suit, but may also compromise in sending an envoy to North Korea for dialogue on restarting six-party nuclear talks. China may also consider cutting off the vital flow of economic and energy aid that largely keeps North Korea afloat. The aid is seen as a major point of leverage over its impoverished communist neighbor. LONG-TERM: Other Asian nations, including Japan or South Korea, may seek their own atomic weapons as a safeguard against a nuclear-armed North Korea, possibly triggering a wider arms race that threatens regional stability. Additional economic sanctions against North Korea may further weaken an already poor and isolated nation. The risk of nuclear proliferation increases with an impoverished North Korea possible selling nuclear technology to terrorists or other countries. That's it. Sorry, AP can't imagine anything stronger than these. So just stop yer belly-achin' and choose your poison. Heh. |
| Posted by:.com |
| #5 While I can imagine stronger responses, I can't imagine any of them actually put into effect. Nothing will happen. |
| Posted by: Jackal 2006-10-09 11:52 |
| #4 I read an article this year estimating Japan could go nuclear in 6 months. They have the fissile material from power plants, tech out the wazoo, money, industrial capability, just no pressing need for nukes, until now. That 6 month figure prolly isn't for a crude bomb either, it's probably for a miniturized warhead on a medium range delivery platform. |
| Posted by: bigjim-ky 2006-10-09 11:51 |
| #3 Doesn't Japan also have a huge stockpile of highly refined material already on hand as well? |
| Posted by: CrazyFool 2006-10-09 10:08 |
| #2 We get to see how soon Japan can go nuclear. My guess: they've all the plans, and maybe even parts. |
| Posted by: gromgoru 2006-10-09 09:05 |
| #1 How could they have possibly overlooked an ultimatum that North Korea's armed forces deliver Kim's severed head on a pike so that we don't bomb them back to the stone-age? Funny how that one slipped AP's list. I'm sure they meant to include it but just ran out of space. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2006-10-09 06:25 |