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| Caribbean-Latin America |
| Fixing To Fight The Cuban Civil War |
| 2006-10-11 |
| October 11, 2006: There are increasing indications that Fidel Castro is not going to return to power. His brother Raul has recently established close ties to nationalist elements in the Cuban Communist Party and in the Armed Forces. He has apparently played on suspicions that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez' wants to inherit Fidel's mantle as the leader of radicalism in Latin America, and could take actions that would compromise Cuban security and independence. More worrisome is the potential for civil war in Cuba once Fidel dies. Raul is pushing 80 himself, and lacks his brothers charisma. Raul is a disciplinarian, which may cause problems if he tries to get Cuba to "shape up" after Fidel dies. Unrest in Cuba resonates in the United States, which is only 150 kilometers a way. In Florida, a key state in national elections, the well organized Cuban-American minority is a political force to be reckoned with. And then there is also the problems that would accompany Cuban-Americans getting active involved in post-Fidel politics. Some Cuban-American leaders have made no secret of their eagerness to do this. So trying to figure out what Raul is up to is a pressing issue in the Pentagon, as it is elsewhere in Washington. |
| Posted by:Steve |
| #7 HEADLINE NEWS Today ten days after the death of Raoul Castro at the hands of Cuba's populace, the streets of Miami are empty............. |
| Posted by: Redneck Jim 2006-10-11 20:02 |
| #6 No rebellion. Those dissatisfied enough to do something make a swim for El Norte. |
| Posted by: ed 2006-10-11 14:14 |
| #5 Realistically a lot of Cubans support and know nothing but CommunistsÂ’ rule. I'm not sure how true that really is. I think there is a lot of communication across the straits. That is why so many are willing to risk their lives to defect. I think most Cubans know the system sucks but have a reserve of respect and a lot of fear of Castro. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2006-10-11 13:50 |
| #4 I too like the Romanian model and would love if Castro and the gang got their just desserts (Bonus points if Chavez was in town to participate). Realistically a lot of Cubans support and know nothing but CommunistsÂ’ rule. Sure a large number would flee given half a chance but there are some hard cores that will attempt to keep the country Commie after Castro(s). |
| Posted by: Cyber Sarge 2006-10-11 13:18 |
| #3 Maybe Chavez will find himself pining for a vacation palace in the Caribbean... |
| Posted by: Seafarious 2006-10-11 11:15 |
| #2 I'm imagining a Romania model. Castro gets a pass from many Cubans but I don't think his brother will and if he tries to crack down I think he'll be strung up or lined up by his own military. Luckily for Cuba many of the exiles are doing well and their economy could be helped a lot if the right moves were made after Cuba changed governments. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2006-10-11 10:57 |
| #1 I have mixed ideas about what will happen to Cuba after Castro. On one hand we have the Eastern Europe model where the populace just took over (mostly bloodless) when the dictators fell. On the other hand we have the North Korea, Libya, and Syria model where the next in line simply continued the dictatorship. I donÂ’t think the party faithful will go quietly into the night, but maybe the people will help them relocate to another country like Venezuela. |
| Posted by: Cyber Sarge 2006-10-11 10:49 |