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China-Japan-Koreas
China may back coup against Kim
2006-10-16
THE Chinese are openly debating "regime change" in Pyongyang after last week's nuclear test by their confrontational neighbour. Diplomats in Beijing said at the weekend that China and all the major US allies believed North Korea's claim that it had detonated a nuclear device. US director of national intelligence John Negroponte circulated a report that radiation had been detected at a site not far from the Chinese border.

The US may have employed highly classified satellite technology to detect tiny leaks of gas or elements associated with nuclear detonation, according to a diplomatic source in the Chinese capital. This would explain Washington's reluctance to explain the findings in public. The Washington Times disclosed that US spy satellites photographed North Koreans playing volleyball just a few hundred metres from a test site tunnel after the underground explosion.

In today's DPRK Government, there are two factions, sinophile and royalist. The objective of the sinophiles is reform, Chinese-style, and then to bring down Kim Jong-il's royal family. That's why Kim is against reform. He's not stupid."
The Chinese Government has been ultra-cautious in its reaction. However, since Monday, Foreign Ministry officials have started to make a point of distinguishing between the North Korean people and their Government in conversations with diplomats. Ahead of yesterday's Security Council vote, some in Beijing argued against heavy sanctions on North Korea for fear that these would destroy what remains of a pro-Chinese "reformist" faction inside the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. "In today's DPRK Government, there are two factions, sinophile and royalist," one Chinese analyst wrote online. "The objective of the sinophiles is reform, Chinese-style, and then to bring down Kim Jong-il's royal family. That's why Kim is against reform. He's not stupid."

More than one Chinese academic agreed that China yearned for an uprising similar to the one that swept away the Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu in 1989 and replaced him with communist reformers and generals. The Chinese made an intense political study of the Romanian revolution and even questioned president Ion Iliescu, who took over, about how it was done and what roles were played by the KGB and by Russia.
Mr Kim ordered North Korean leaders to watch videos of the swift and chaotic trial and execution of Ceausescu and his wife, Elena, the vice-prime minister, as a salutary exercise.
Mr Kim, for his part, ordered North Korean leaders to watch videos of the swift and chaotic trial and execution of Ceausescu and his wife, Elena, the vice-prime minister, as a salutary exercise.

The balance of risk between reform and chaos dominated arguments within China's ruling elite. The Chinese have also permitted an astonishing range of vituperative internet comment about an ally with which Beijing maintains a treaty of friendship and co-operation. Academic Wu Jianguo published an article in a Singapore newspaper - available online in China - bluntly saying: "I suggest China should make an end of Kim's Government."

"The Chinese have given up on Kim Jong-il," commented one diplomat. "The question is, what are they going to do about it?" Hinting at the options, Chinese online military commentators have exposed plots and purges inside North Korea that were previously unknown or unconfirmed. They have described three attempted coups that ended in bloodshed. In 1996, the Sixth Field Army was planning to revolt but the scheme was betrayed by a new commander. One or two plotters got away but Kim Jong-il's personal guards arrested senior officers and the Sixth Field Army's political commissars.

Xin Cheng, an estate agent in the high-rise district of Wang Jing, which is popular with resident South Korean businessmen, said many high-ranking North Koreans were buying property there.
On March 12, 1998, Kim suddenly announced a martial law "exercise" in Pyongyang and there was gunfire in the streets of the city. The Chinese later learned that two ministries were involved in a coup attempt, and that more than 20 ministerial-level officials were killed after it was crushed. In October 1999, a company of the Third Field Army rebelled in dissatisfaction over grain distribution during the nation's prolonged famine, which may have killed a million people.

There are rumours that Kim's eldest son, Jong-nam, is estranged from his father and living in the Chinese capital, where he enjoys a reputation as a capricious imbiber of whisky. A younger son, Jong-chol, has emerged as heir apparent.

Meanwhile, some of the North Korean elite are seeking their boltholes in China. Xin Cheng, an estate agent in the high-rise district of Wang Jing, which is popular with resident South Korean businessmen, said many high-ranking North Koreans were buying property there.
Posted by:Fred

#17  JAB - I HOPE you are right. But, my gut tells me that the China / NK relationship is sock-puppetry on an international scale.
Posted by: DMFD   2006-10-16 23:31  

#16  Then shove those raskly refugees back into North Korea under your new puppet General and its game on again.

Essentially. The key will be getting the international community to cough up the funds to support the 'New Korean' regime.
Posted by: Pappy   2006-10-16 21:27  

#15  If China is going to support a coup I doubt they'd let anyone know until it was over. Better to just open up the border to North Korea refugees, create a crisis, and when Kim pops up have him killed and blame it on anti-government forces.

Then shove those raskly refugees back into North Korea under your new puppet General and its game on again.
Posted by: rjschwarz   2006-10-16 18:14  

#14  Zenster, not smoking anything here but I will admit that my analysis is not based on any special knowledge of the area, just an assessment of how our interests might overlap with Chinas. What you think that W would say if Hu called him and said the following:

"We've change our mind about North Korea. I am going to offer Kim an exile package. We will have him killed by General X if he does not take the deal. We will fly him out if he does. We will then take over the state run media in North Korea and announce a plea for order and a promise for relief and respect for Korean sovereignty. We will send 10 divisions into NK to maintain order, setup refugee camps and enable relief transport. We will coordinate with the Russians and South Koreans who we expect to, at some point, send in troops to sectors of the country. We understand that you are concerned with WMD and will establish a liasson process with you regarding military incursions necessary to secure WMD. Once the country is stable, China will facilitate a conference to plan long term economic aid and chart the political future of North Korea. Once Kim is gone, will you support this Chinese led stabilization plan at the UN? Will you contribute funds for humanitarian relief and encourage Japan and other allies to do so?"

Obviously this is a fantasy scenario and it will not happen. But, if it did, I think the US would say 'yes' and then hope to minimize Chinese influence in the post-regime state.

I would love to hear your critique of the conclusions in this Atlantic article. Basically, Kaplan says that the South Koreans may make China the ultimate beneficiary of the committment the US has made to them.


Also, Thomas Barnett (the "Pentagon's New Map" dude) is a huge proponent of the us making China 'strategically comfortable' with handling NK. I think he is a bit too egotistical, overestimates how ready China is for geopolitical primetime and has a bad case of 'Bush Derangement Syndrome." However, he makes some good points overall.
Posted by: JAB   2006-10-16 16:48  

#13  There is no way that China is going to let NK go. But I disagree with you ZF on whether they play in the PR world. Feeding the poor masses and giving them the opportunity of the average Chinese (whom most in the west perceive as reasonably free - not an accurate perception, but the overriding perception nevertheless) would make them look like the world's leading humanitarians. That is currency in today's world, if for nothing more than giving them cover to force pressure on other issues (Taiwan).
Posted by: remoteman   2006-10-16 15:45  

#12  R: Toppling Kim would be a PR coup that would make the media-driven world fawn all over the Chicoms.

I don't think China trades in PR coups. Kim's fall would set off a succession battle in North Korea with the potential for civil war, which might bring in South Korean intervention - with the potential for full unification, which China opposes. For two reasons - (1) the removal of the North Korean threat means USFK is no longer tied down in South Korea and (2) a unified Korea with 80m people - and without a North Korean sword hanging over its head - is every bit of a strategic threat as Japan.
Posted by: Zhang Fei   2006-10-16 15:29  

#11  The Chinese state may be unitary, but that does not mean the Communist Party is. There are several major factions in the Chinese Communist Party, and every time there is a major leadership change, those are revealed to the outside. Not clearly revealed, but the machinations, retirements, promotions, and replacements all show which faction is in ascendency. I am certain that there is a faction that would like to dump Kimmie and his crew, just like I am certain that there is a faction that still considers him useful. What is important is which faction is in control right now, and whether this latest test has harmed or helped them politically.
Posted by: Shieldwolf   2006-10-16 15:29  

#10  And while there could be a real economic impact upon "freeing" the NKOR's, I would guess that they could get the rest of the world to pay for it.

Again, same scenario, same response. If China reabsorbs North Korea, it alone should bear the burden of rehabilitating this cesspool that it spawned. Not a penny of foreign aid should go to assisting the communists. China is more deserving of universal condemnation than any sort of praise. Their propping up of Kim Jong-il perpetuated one of the most hideous crimes against humanity in modern times. The famine, cannibalism and incessant violation of human rights known as North Korea must be hung for all to see, like an albatross, around China's neck.
Posted by: Zenster   2006-10-16 15:26  

#9  We will gladly stamp the UN seal of approval on Chinese occupation and stabilization of the North in conjunction with Russia and SK and some long term roadmap for integration with the democratic South.

Whatever you're smoking, lay off of it, JAB. No way in hell should America "gladly stamp the UN seal of approval on Chinese occupation and stabilization of the North". For North Korea to evolve into another fully "functional" communist state would be a huge setback. Whether South Korea wants to admit as such or even finance it, reunification is the ticket required here. Some international financing of this reassembly may be necessary, but there is no way that China should be allowed to repossess North Korea. That would automatically prohibit any notion of a "long term roadmap for integration with the democratic South." For decades at least.
Posted by: Zenster   2006-10-16 15:19  

#8  The Beijing olympics are coming up. Toppling Kim would be a PR coup that would make the media-driven world fawn all over the Chicoms. Nothing they could do would so elevate their status. And while there could be a real economic impact upon "freeing" the NKOR's, I would guess that they could get the rest of the world to pay for it.
Posted by: remoteman   2006-10-16 15:18  

#7  Article: China may back coup against Kim

And the blind may start seeing. And the deaf may start hearing. But I wouldn't bet on it.
Posted by: Zhang Fei   2006-10-16 14:30  

#6  NK has been perceived by China as useful for being its 'junkyard dog' , as one Rantburger put it.

Maybe now they perceive that NK has outlived its usefullness. If so, they can make Kim disappear and we should be happy to let them do it. If, as Joseph says, China views Korea as its own, so be it. We will gladly stamp the UN seal of approval on Chinese occupation and stabilization of the North in conjunction with Russia and SK and some long term roadmap for integration with the democratic South. China's geopolitical stock will go up, but the Korean people will benefit and we will be rid of another Axis of Evil regime.

Hope this article is correct. Logically, it should be.
Posted by: JAB   2006-10-16 14:16  

#5  It is difficult to imagine a coup in this totalitarian regime although the need exists.
Posted by: JohnQC   2006-10-16 09:04  

#4  China may back coup against Kim

And they may not, too.

Fred, get the Surprise Meter graphic ready for use in a few days.
Posted by: gorb   2006-10-16 05:06  

#3  CHINESE BLOGGERS/POSTERS > China and its PLA suffered millions of csualties fighting KOREAN WAR 1 + saving North Korea from MacArthur = USA/US-owned UNO. VIEW = CHINA FOUGHT THE KOREAN WAR, NOT NORTH KOREA, ERGO NORTH KOREA = KOREAS BELONGS TO CHINA BECUZ CHINA PAID FOR NORTH KOREA = KOREAS IN CHINESE/CHICOM BLOOD.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2006-10-16 00:41  

#2  "The Chinese have given up on Kim Jong-il," commented one diplomat. "The question is, what are they going to do about it?" Hinting at the options, Chinese online military commentators have exposed plots and purges inside North Korea that were previously unknown or unconfirmed. They have described three attempted coups that ended in bloodshed. In 1996, the Sixth Field Army was planning to revolt but the scheme was betrayed by a new commander. One or two plotters got away but Kim Jong-il's personal guards arrested senior officers and the Sixth Field Army's political commissars.

On March 12, 1998, Kim suddenly announced a martial law "exercise" in Pyongyang and there was gunfire in the streets of the city. The Chinese later learned that two ministries were involved in a coup attempt, and that more than 20 ministerial-level officials were killed after it was crushed. In October 1999, a company of the Third Field Army rebelled in dissatisfaction over grain distribution during the nation's prolonged famine, which may have killed a million people.

This is pretty revealing stuff. I can only suppose that the politburo is sniffing around to see whether Kim's armor is developing any "chinks" (as it were).

More than anything, China's own relatively unrestrained speculation about coups and such points towards obvious concerns that it may be more prudent for them to pre-empt Kim than await developments that might see the communists nudged aside in favor of a more Western-friendly government.
Posted by: Zenster   2006-10-16 00:38  

#1  Great PR stuff, lol. If they were serious about deposing Kim, it wouldn't be in The Australian. This is prolly "run it up the flagpole and see if anyone salutes" stuff to gauge the effect - and from whom.
Posted by: .com   2006-10-16 00:35  

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