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| VDH: "Looking back is a sure way to stumble" |
| 2006-10-23 |
| Most of the blame game being played over the Iraqi occupation — and always with the wisdom of hindsight — is now irrelevant. . . . Many wars metamorphize into something they were not supposed to be. Few imagined that the Poland war of 1939 would within two years evolve into a war of annihilation involving the United States, the Soviet Union, Britain, Germany, Japan, and Italy. So too with the third Iraqi war of 2003 (following the first 1991 Gulf War, and the second, subsequent 12-year no-fly zone stand-off) that has now become a fight against jihadists for the future course of the entire Middle East. What matters now is not so much what the war was or should have been, but only what it is — and whether we have learned from our mistakes and can still win. The answer to both questions is yes. We have the right strategy — birthing (through three elections already) an autonomous democracy; training an army subject to a civil government; and pledging support until it can protect its own constitutional government. Few American officers are talking about perpetual occupation or even the need for more troops, but rather about the need for a lighter footprint, bolstered by teams of Special Forces and air support, to ensure Iraqi responsibility for their own future,. And the key to success — a diplomatic squeeze on the Sunnis to suppress terrorists in Nineveh and Anbar provinces in exchange for Shiite guarantees of more government inclusion — is now the acknowledged goal of both the Iraqi and American governments. Thousands in Iraq accept that they have crossed the Rubicon, and they must either make their own democracy work or suffer a fate worse than that of the boat people and the butchered in Southeast Asia when the Americans left. As for how to ensure against this disastrous outcome, multilateral talks are no magic bullet, as we see from the failed EU3 efforts with Iran and the stalled six-party negotiations over the North Korean problem. The “more rubble/less trouble” solution that the Russians employed against the Chechnyans in Grozny is out of the question for a humane United States. The U.N. is no answer as we have seen from serial genocides from Rwanda to the present killing in Darfur. No, only the United States, and its superb military, can stabilize Iraq and give the Iraqis enough time and confidence to do what has not been done before, and what apparently no one any longer thinks will be done: a surviving, viable democratic government in the heart of the dictatorial Middle East. . . . For all the Democrats loud criticism, if they do regain Congress, they would probably rely on the present expertise of a Khalizad, Abizaid, or Petraeus, and not the often quoted wisdom of three years past of a Gen. Shinseki or Zinni. I doubt they will bring back Gen. Wesley Clark to fix the “mess.” They will either have to cut off funds, ensure a pull out before the end of the year, and then watch real blood sport as reformers are butchered; or they will have to trust that our present military and civilian leadership has learned the hard lessons of three years in Iraq, and can find a way to stabilize the nascent democracy. . . . The odd thing is that, for all the gloom and furor, and real blunders, nevertheless, by the historical standards of most wars, we have done well enough to win in Iraq, and still have a good shot of doing the impossible in seeing this government survive. More importantly still, worldwide we are beating the Islamic fundamentalists and their autocratic supporters. Iranian-style theocracy has not spread. For all the talk of losing Afghanistan, the Taliban are still dispersed or in hiding — so is al Qaeda. Europe is galvanizing against Islamism in a way unimaginable just three years ago. . . . In contrast, if we should withdraw from Iraq right now, there will be an industry in the next decade of hindsight exposés — but they won’t be the gotcha ones like State of Denial or Fiasco. Instead we will revisit the 1974-5 Vietnam genre of hindsight — of why after such heartbreak and sacrifice the United States gave up when it was so close to succeeding. |
| Posted by:Mike |
| #7 Here's a good summation of Derb's Rubble/Trouble theory. |
| Posted by: Parabellum 2006-10-23 18:41 |
| #6 I believe the "more rubble/less trouble" phrase is John Derbyshire's. VDH is just replying to it. Link |
| Posted by: Parabellum 2006-10-23 18:39 |
| #5 The “more rubble/less trouble” solution While VDH may be a bit overly rosy about Iraq, he sure nails what will be required for Iran. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2006-10-23 18:24 |
| #4 Let's not forget that millions of Iraqis turned out to vote in the face of injury and/or death. I'm not defending Hanson here but I think that says something about the Iraqi peoples desire for democracy considering they embraced it's most basic principle: one man, one vote. Personally, I believe that principles are predicated on desire. You must want something before you are willing to sacrifice for it. The Iraqis have stated their desire for democracy but have seemingly failed to accept the sacrifices necessary for it. However, I find myself wondering nowadays--considering how much is being sacrificed in the name of democracy-- is that not what we're seeing in Iraq right now? |
| Posted by: eltoroverde 2006-10-23 16:45 |
| #3 Normally, I appreciate Hanson's writing. The problem with these intellectuals is that they think they're the fount of all wisdom. What I see is the absolute denial that there's internecine warfare going on here. We cannot force anything resmbling democracy on a herd of tribes who don't and/or refuse to accept the principles of democracy. We're nothing more than a truck in a mudhole spinning it's tires. The more you spin, the "stucker" you get. We are not going to live long enough for these idiots to grasp democratic principles. Sacrificing our people for " Noble Cause" gets grating. The futility is eventually noticed by the voters. That's where we are today. There was time to deal with Iraq. It has disappeared. The ball has been dropped. |
| Posted by: SpecOp35 2006-10-23 14:11 |
| #2 "Harrumph. Leave the stumbling to us, we're professionals!" -National Hysterian Council |
| Posted by: .com 2006-10-23 12:19 |
| #1 The pull quote is kind of odd coming from a historian ... |
| Posted by: Pholutch Elmitle9275 2006-10-23 12:07 |