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Iraq
Iraq's PM under pressure as U.S. frustration mounts
2006-10-24
Five months after taking office in the citadel, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki finds his leadership increasingly paralyzed by wrangling within his coalition and Shi'ite allies, as frustration among U.S. officials grows over his failure to move against militias and tackle a host of other issues.

In a recent interview, Vice President Adel Abdul Mahdi said Iraq's most dangerous problem was decision-making.
Disarming militias is a political decision, not a military one. But who is going to take it
"Disarming militias is a political decision, not a military one. But who is going to take it? Maliki alone cannot take it even though he is the prime minister," a senior Shi'ite official close to Maliki said on condition of anonymity. "The challenges are big but the issue is not about who is the prime minister or about his personality," the official said.
That's kind of the problem with "governments of national unity," isn't it?
Maliki was thrust to the forefront of Iraqi politics with the image of a tough Shi'ite Islamist who could weld warring factions together into a national unity government. His nomination by the Shi'ite Alliance bloc ended months of deadlock over his dithering predecessor Ibrahim al-Jaafari. His brisk style earned him praise from U.S. officials anxious for a decisive leader capable of stemming a drift toward civil war.

Now, election-year pressure is piling on President George W. Bush to revise his Iraq policy as sectarian violence worsens and the U.S. death toll climbs. Media reports that Bush officials are drafting a timetable for Baghdad to address violence and assume a larger role in security suggest Washington is prepared to push Maliki harder but the premier's aides say lack of government cohesion and growing Shi'ite factionalism are holding Maliki hostage.
They say he has found every decision challenged, whether by minority Sunni Arabs or Kurds or Shi'ite rivals.
They say he has found every decision challenged, whether by minority Sunni Arabs or Kurds or Shi'ite rivals. "Maliki understands that him staying as prime minister depends on pleasing other political groups and on being diplomatic with all powers, so how can he accomplish anything?" said Hazem al-Naimi, a political science professor.

Rival Shi'ite groups within his coalition include the powerful Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and the faction of Moqtada al-Sadr, a volatile cleric who heads a militia blamed for many sectarian killings. U.S. commanders have been pressing Maliki to crack down on Sadr's Mehdi Army, but Maliki's political fortunes depend on the support he gets from Moqtada's group in parliament. Last week, U.S. officials arrested a senior Sadr aide in Baghdad but reluctantly released him next day after following a request from Maliki that he be freed.

A widening power struggle in the Shi'ite heartland between Sadr and the Badr Brigades, linked to SCIRI, sparked clashes last week in Amara and other towns in the oil-rich south. A Shi'ite versus Shi'ite war would add more headaches to U.S.-led forces, battling Sunni rebels in central and western Iraq. "There is a lot of political maneuvering going on and these clashes are part of that," Major Charlie Burbridge, a spokesman for the British forces in Basra said of the fighting in Amara.

Signs of straining relations between Washington and Baghdad emerged last week when Maliki used a telephone call with Bush to seek assurances that the United States would not set a deadline for him to improve security and address sectarianism.
Bush administration officials publicly endorse Maliki but have hinted that their patience is not open-ended. Bush has talked of changing tactics if not strategy. Signs of straining relations between Washington and Baghdad emerged last week when Maliki used a telephone call with Bush to seek assurances that the United States would not set a deadline for him to improve security and address sectarianism.

Some Shi'ite politicians complain that U.S. pressure to form a power-sharing system in post-war Iraq among its three main groups has blocked them from exercising decisive majority rule. "Maliki did not choose his own government. Some ministers were forced on him. If he wants to replace an inefficient minister with another more professional one he can't do it," a SCIRI official told Reuters.

The political paralysis is hindering not only Maliki's pledges to disarm militias and overhaul the Interior Ministry, but also plans to stamp out graft and improve public services. "We can't even decide on building an oil refinery in Samawa," Mahdi said. "We have the money and it's a safe place. Why can't we do it? Because nobody can make a decision."
Posted by:Fred

#5  There is another possability, liberalhawk, which is explored on Rantburg here

If we stay, whether it be ten weeks or ten years, at some point the Iraqi Army will be able to stand on its' own. Then we can hang around and make popcorn.
Posted by: Bobby   2006-10-24 17:38  

#4  da problem.

The Iraqis elected the real "good guys" pro US secular democrats to only about 10% of the seats in parliament. Add the Kurds, another 20%, with their own agenda, but willing to do what needs to be done to make things work.

20% Sunni parties, which range from suspicious of the US but pragmatic, to al Qaeeda sympathizers.

But just over 50% went to the United Iraqi Alliance, a Shiite coalition. As long as the UIA acts as a block, you cant make a govt without them. We've made two tries - Jaafari, and now Maliki, to get UIA to lead a coalition govt, and be pragmatic about A. A compromise on federalism that accommodates the sane Sunnis and B. Cracking down on militias.

The problem is that the nastier militias, the Sadrists, are PART of the UIA. And no UIA leader trusts the Sunnis, or the Allawi-secularists, enough to be willing to break with the Sadrists.

so there are two questions facing Condi, Baker, Hadley and whoever else is making policy on Iraq now. 1. Do we have the political will to break the UIA - which means threatening something - either a withdrawl, or a coup, or an unauthorized attack on Sadr that breaks the UIA - to get certain friendly Shia parties to take the leap and break with the Sadrists? 2. Are we prepared to send in enough troops to be able to take down the Sadrists, while holding against the Sunni insurgents, and knowing that many of the trained Iraqi forces are not reliable against the Sadrists?

Note, both these represent admitting that "staying the course" isnt enough - though they deviate from the course in seemingly opposite directions - the first involves the dems favorite strat of setting timetables for the Iraqis - the second involves the McCain approach of more boots on the ground.

Posted by: liberalhawk   2006-10-24 16:24  

#3  Five months after taking office Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki finds his leadership increasingly paralyzed by wrangling within his coalition and Shi'ite allies, as frustration among U.S. officials grows

Sounds like the American people getting frustrated with Bush's policies and donk defeatism and ankle biting.

They say he has found every decision challenged

Sounds a lot like the situation George Bush has with the donks.

Sounds like we've done a pretty good job of installing American style government over there. Time to start handing out more of that oil money to get the votes to pick a winner and then raise taxes to pay for it.

Think of Sadr City as K Street. The only challenge is to get them to use money instead of bullets.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble   2006-10-24 06:59  

#2  You had better become a leader overnight Mr President. Americans are out of charity. Pockets empty, graves full for removing Saddam. So, You are who must take Iraq BOLDLY forward. Forget Poetry.

My brother, Please learn how to lead them instead of playing kindergarden teacher with them.

You are the best pick, now lead. I back you.
Posted by: closedanger   2006-10-24 02:44  

#1  Would you buy a used car from this guy? I didn't think so.
Posted by: Captain America   2006-10-24 00:41  

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