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Africa Horn
ANALYSIS-Somali Islamists fought wrong kind of war vs Ethiopia
2007-01-02
Of course, that depends on whose side you are on...
MOGADISHU, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Somalia's Islamists suffered rapid defeat against Ethiopian troops and their Somali government allies because they fought the wrong kind of war -- a conventional one, experts said on Tuesday. But their slaughter on Somalia's low bushlands and arid wastes, followed by a hasty retreat from the capital Mogadishu and later the key southern port of Kismayu, may portend the start of a guerrilla war of bombings and assassinations.
That would be innovative of them.
After systematically defeating warlords in more than four months of fighting for Mogadishu, the Islamists won credit for producing one of the most disciplined military forces in Somalia since the Cold War heyday of dictator Mohamed Siad Barre.
That's not just putting the bar on the ground, that's putting it in a shallow trough and paving over the darn thing.
"Taking on the Ethiopians in a conventional war, fighting these set-piece battles, was a tactical mistake for the courts," said independent Somalia analyst Matt Bryden.
Wonder how much he gets paid to come up with insights like this?
The gunmen of the Somali Islamic Courts Council (SICC) chose to fight the joint Somali-Ethiopian forces, packing the support of tanks, helicopter gunships and jets, on front lines spread across flat terrain with only rudimentary cover.
"I think the Islamists were on a roll and overconfident ...
No!! You don't say!
against a competent, professional military force like the Ethiopians," said a military expert and combat veteran who follows Somalia and is not authorised to speak to the press.
Then why are you babbling, Top Job?
Ethiopia has demonstrated its military power in the Horn of Africa before, sending troops to attack the militant Somali group al-Itihaad al-Islaami several times from 1992 to 1998, and defeating Eritrea in a 1998-2000 border war. No independent casualty figures are available, but the government has estimated its fighters and the Ethiopians killed several thousand Islamists.
That's what we call 'a good start.' (BTW- more at the link.)
Posted by:Free Radical

#10  HHHHHMMMMMM, HHHHHHMMMMM, a mostly uneducated, lucky-to-have-any-training-at-all, Teen and Tweeney-something armed force = scattered groups, to include alleged numbers of similar aged girls; versus a mostly adult male, well-seasoned, professional modern force - OBVIOUSLY THE TWEENS WOULD'VE WON.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2007-01-02 21:59  

#9  This brain-dead analyst forgot one essential point of this war : the ICU was trying to set itself up as the GOVERNMENT of Somalia, with all the powers and privileges that entails. In order to do that against tribal militias and assorted gunmen in widely dispersed towns, one is forced into a near conventional light infantry/light cavalry assault force, which is what the gunnies and technicals of the ICU functioned as. So while the LI/LC model worked against the warlords for the ICU, against the Ethiopian Army it was a recipe for disaster. Also, it is VERY difficult to change military models during a war - especially one that only lasts two weeks.

So now, the ICU will revert back to hit-and-run? Big deal! That will actually play to the strengths of the TFG's militias, especially if they are specifically designed to function as Village Defense Forces, pinning down the ICU fighters until the helicopters and light armour can get there. And considering how much of the Ethiopian Air Force is likely to remain "on call" for the TFG, company-sized ICU attacks will result in massive losses for them {meaning the ICU}.

Bright boy analyst also forgot to mention just how much equipment will be left behind by the Ethiopians for the TFG - a little light armour goes a long way in this type of warfare.
Posted by: Shieldwolf   2007-01-02 17:52  

#8  You only had to read as far as the 'MOGADISHU, Jan 2 (Rooters) to know which direction this hang wringer was gonna go.
Note to independent analyst Matt: Please STFU.
thank you.
Posted by: USN, Ret.   2007-01-02 13:37  

#7  They fought the wrong opponent, one not wracked with western guilt and fear of inflicting unnecessary casualties. The old tricks don't work when they are willing to blow up you and the family you are hiding behind rather than risk themselves.

More proof of why the US should use more and more proxies in the war on terror.
Posted by: rjschwarz   2007-01-02 13:20  

#6  Ethiopia is predominantly a Christian country too, talk about adding insult to injury.
Posted by: bigjim-ky   2007-01-02 11:05  

#5  After systematically defeating warlords in more than four months of fighting for Mogadishu, the Islamists won credit for producing one of the most disciplined military forces in Somalia since the Cold War heyday of dictator Mohamed Siad Barre.

Another sterling example of The Creed:

"Above all else, value Stability..."
Posted by: Pappy   2007-01-02 11:00  

#4  I'm sure the bombings and such will start up. But after the Somalis demonstrate their displeasure by wiping out entire villages for harboring terrorist thugs, I expect a steep drop-off.

Not a pretty picture, eh? Not civilized. The only thing to recommend it is that it works.
Posted by: mojo   2007-01-02 10:43  

#3  Any note on how many prisoners the Ethiopians took?

If you drain the swamp there's no place for the fish to swim.
Posted by: Procopius2k   2007-01-02 10:26  

#2  I fought the war and the war won.
Posted by: Seafarious   2007-01-02 10:24  

#1  independent Somalia analyst Matt Bryden

Nice job if you can get it.
Posted by: anonymous5089   2007-01-02 10:17  

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