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| Caribbean-Latin America |
| Kirchner critic seeks Argentine presidency |
| 2007-01-07 |
| Roberto Lavagna, the former economy minister who is widely credited with engineering Argentina’s rapid economic recovery since its collapse in 2001, has announced that he will run for president in elections due in October. Mr Lavagna, who was sacked from the cabinet in November 2005 because of disagreements with President Néstor Kirchner, has criticised the government’s “shift to the left” in the past year. He also warned of increasing signs of authoritarianism and an economic policy that deters foreign investment. By challenging the presidency, Mr Lavagna has ended months of speculation, although the centre-left Mr Kirchner has yet to make clear if he will seek re-election. Mr Kirchner’s high approval ratings, which some pollsters put above 70 per cent, mean that he is widely expected to win the elections. If he does not run, it is likely that he will be replaced by his wife, Cristina Fernández, an influential senator who would also be expected to win. It remains to be seen whether the weak and fragmented opposition will unite behind Mr Lavagna against the formidable popularity of the government. Mr Lavagna told the daily La Nación that “it would be a mistake” to have several opposition candidates. Without a united opposition, Mr Lavagna stands little chance of winning, says Sergio Berensztein, a political analyst based in Buenos Aires. A key ally for Mr Lavagna, who claims to represent the “progressive centre”, would be the main centre-right candidate, Mauricio Macri, who owns Boca Juniors football club. They have been in talks for several months, although Mr Macri reacted coolly to Mr Lavagna’s announcement on Friday. “If Lavagna and Macri run separately that will basically assure the president a victory in the first round of voting,” said Mr Berensztein. If they pooled resources they might be able to push the elections to a second round of voting, which would be held if the winner gets less than 45 per cent of the vote without a 10-point lead. “The only way the opposition has a chance is with a solid coalition.” According to a recent poll by Graciela Römer, if there were elections now Mr Kirchner would win with 55 per cent of the vote, while his wife would get 39 per cent. Against Mr Kirchner, Mr Macri would come second with 11.8 per cent, while Mr Lavagna and Elisa Carrió, a centre-left candidate, would both receive more than 5 per cent. |
| Posted by:Steve White |