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Iraq
al-Qaeda has begun to flee Baghdad in advance of the American troop surge
2007-01-17
(via Captain's Quarters blog)

Two sources within Iraq report that al-Qaeda has begun to flee Baghdad in advance of the American troop surge. Richard Miniter, blogging at Pajamas Media, confirms with US military intelligence a report from an insurgent press outlet quoted by Iraq the Model:
Al Qaeda terrorists are fleeing Baghdad in advance of President BushÂ’s 21,500-man troop surge, a senior military intelligence officer told Pajamas Media today. Under orders from the al Qaeda commander in Iraq, Abu Ayyub al-Masri, fighters are streaming toward the Diyala region of Iraq.

This confirms reports posted on Iraq the Model, which cited al-Sabah, a well-known mouthpiece for al Qaeda in Iraq.

In speaking with Pajamas Media the military intelligence officer supplied several new details of the al Qaeda retreat.

The apparent evacuation of Baghdad by al Qaeda forces comes from direct orders issued by al-Masri, the former soldier who took control of the Iraqi wing of al Qaeda following the June 2006 bombing death of Zarqawi.

Initially, the intelligence officer informed Pajamas, the Baghdad-based AQ fighters did not want to leave. Al-Masri had to send unequivocal orders for their retreat, adding that one of the lessons from the Fallujah campaign was that Americans have learned how to prevail in house-to-house fighting. Masri said that remaining in Baghdad was a ‘no-win situation’ for the terrorists.
No other media outlets have reported on this story yet, but both Miniter and Omar are on the ground in the area. The al-Sabaah site appears to be down at the moment, and it may not have an English translation of any statements in any case. If confirmed, it would be the first public retreat by al-Qaeda forces, a damaging development for the network, which had just started to earn back some of its luster thanks to its efforts in Iraq.

Miniter warns that this could be just a tactical retreat to lure the Americans out of Baghdad. The strategy might be to pull the US into a region where the Sunni insurgencies enjoy more support and cover, and while we engage the native insurgents, al-Qaeda could slip around us and get back into Baghdad. Why that would be preferable to just staying in Baghdad from the beginning isn't immediately clear

In any case, the message from AQ, via its al-Sabaah mouthpiece, seems to be that the surge has made an impression on the right people. It already has the terrorists scrambling for position, and the motion itself will make them much more vulnerable.
Posted by:Anonymoose

#6  This is a great idea. We should do the same.
Posted by: John Murtha   2007-01-17 22:55  

#5  Al'Qaeda shouldn't be too worried; their allies in the Democrat party are working hard in their support.
Posted by: Rob Crawford   2007-01-17 17:58  

#4  Once the terrs leave and the joint bases are put in place, it is going to be very difficult for them to come back and setup shop again. Also, something that a lot of people seem to forget about the surge : the media lives and reports from Baghdad, not the rest of the country. Some reporters leave Baghdad but most do not. So, if Baghdad calms down for a 6 month period, it makes it difficult for the media to keep hyping the terrs. Plus, that 6 month period gives the US and Iraq time to move more Shia/Kurdish majority units into the Greater Baghdad Zone, thereby cutting off the oxygen to the Sunni/Baathist terrs. The underlying ethnic cleansing by the Shia death squads will continue at a lower rate, and Baghdad's neighborhoods will be effectively segregated by sect before long. That in and of itself will lower the violence level in Baghdad.

Also, the outlying communities are screaming for US/Iraqi troops to protect them from the fleeing terrs, and giving good intel as incentive for that protection. Naked self-interest is driving a lot of decisions in Iraq now, and the possibility of the car-bombings moving to their neighborhoods has many Sunni communities scared to death. Add in the collateral damage from counter-attacks by Iraqi Army units which do NOT pay for damage like the US military does, and the downside for the Baghdad suburban zone of receiving fleeing Sunnis becomes close to unbearable.
Posted by: Shieldwolf   2007-01-17 16:58  

#3  Well the jihadis that were left were able to carry out a double bombing yesterday at the Univ. so I'm not convinced operation Flee Baghdad is a real order.

Of course it could be that the double bombing was a send off before the fleeing. In that case it would be interesting to see if the Shia terrorist "operation ethnic cleansing" takes a break from their activities.
Posted by: mhw   2007-01-17 14:48  

#2  There was an article here the some days ago that the bad guys are finding it difficult to leave their neighborhoods. Once they flee to the provinces this time, how difficult will it be for them to get across the city to return home, in order to resume their nefarious activites?
Posted by: trailing wife   2007-01-17 14:24  

#1  Back before the invasion I postulated that the best strategy Saddam could have employed was totally backing down after the US had spent a ton of money and political capital building up. Lather, rinse, repeat, until Iraq became a political albatross no President wanted to get near.

The same could be worked against the insurgents. Imagine rumors of a surge every once in awhile to cause them to flee like cowards.
Posted by: rjschwarz   2007-01-17 13:25  

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