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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Lebanon's Fateful Showdown |
| 2007-01-28 |
| by Amir Taheri Where do we go from here? The leaders of the two rival camps in Lebanon should be pondering the question in the wake of the showdown that brought Beirut to a standstill last Tuesday. The showdown started in December, when Hezbollah - having withdrawn its ministers from the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora - started a mass sit-in in the heart of Lebanon's capital. The immediate excuse was Siniora's decision to endorse the U.N. inquiry into Syria's role in the 2005 murder of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. More importantly, perhaps, Hezbollah saw its existence threatened by two Security Council resolutions stipulating that all militias be disarmed. Siniora had accepted both resolutions in the teeth of opposition from Hezbollah, which regards its militia as the centerpiece of its power as a state within the Lebanese state. Yet other reasons, more broadly related to the balance of power in the region, also likely prompted Hezbollah to make its move. One reason was Iran's desire to humiliate the United States by bringing down Siniora's government, which President Bush often cites by as a child of the Lebanese "Cedar Revolution" and a symbol of democratization in the Middle East. Creating a pro-Iran government in Beirut would deliver the coup de grace to the "Bush Doctrine" of "spreading freedom." Another reason for Hezbollah's move is the Irano-Syrian desire to use Lebanon in war against Israel. As Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallim has said, a neutral Lebanon would deprive Syria of the "hinterland" it needs to deal with a putative Israeli blitzkrieg. Iran also needs Lebanon as a base for "flooding Israel with missiles," as Defense Minister Mostafa Najjar has noted. |
| Posted by:ryuge |
| #2 I'm not sure that Hizb Allah's finances can take another two months of mass protests. Its true that the mass protesters cost only a few dollars a day each. But the costs of servicing the porta potties, etc. cost extra and so do the cost of the leaders. |
| Posted by: mhw 2007-01-28 14:28 |
| #1 Wonderful ideas. However, the underlying premise "that any member, of either camp, cares anything for Lebanon as an end---rather than means to an end" is completely wrong. |
| Posted by: gromgoru 2007-01-28 13:02 |