Gaza is looking a lot like Beirut circa 1975 these days, if not present-day Baghdad. The streets are half-empty, there are barricades on the corners, militants in street clothes exchange fire with an unidentified enemy, men carry bleeding children to hospitals that are incapable of dealing with their patient load. The Palestinians are still one up on the other two conflicts, in that the religious and sectarian aspects of the conflict are less obvious. The warring parties share the same religion and nationality, which may be keeping the violence from erupting into another Iraq. There are no guarantees, however. Within Fatah, there are rumors that Hamas might use suicide bombers and car bombs against it. How close is Israel to getting sucked into the Gazan vortex? Closer than one might think. Last week Israel declined to respond forcefully to the Islamic Jihad suicide bombing in Eilat, on the assumption that it was their own infighting that headlined the Palestinians' agenda. That approach could change, though, when the main obstacle to an Israel Defense Forces ground incursion into Gaza - the outgoing chief of staff, Dan Halutz - takes his leave. Central Command head Yoav Galant and, with certain reservations, Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin both support military action in Gaza. The position of Gabi Ashkenazi, the incoming chief of staff, whose appointment will be submitted to the cabinet today for its approval, has not been determined.
A second Operation Defensive Shield in Gaza is in the pipeline, if not imminent. One of Halutz's final directives was to set a target date for completing the readiness of the relevant units. The army is prepared for the possibility that the intra-Palestinian conflict could spill over into a new Hamas and Islamic Jihad assault on Israel. The likelihood of this happening is not known. A great deal depends on the way the infighting within Gaza develops, but the army is determined not to be caught with its pants down this time.
If there is a ground incursion, it will focus on trying to stop the Hamas Qassam missile project, which has undergone significant developments in recent months. Some IDF officials believe that certain elements in Fatah are attempting, in a desperate move, to drag Israel into the conflict. The threat to the lives of senior Fatah officials in Gaza is more real than ever now, after the elimination by Hamas of several upper-middle-level Fatah activists. Fatah needs weapons, ammunition and protective clothing. If Israel does not provide them to it, Fatah would at least be grateful if it turns a blind eye to shipments from outside. For now, Israel is staying out of the game.
Fatah and Hamas yesterday concluded their ninth cease-fire in two weeks, with partial success: Only nine people were wounded in the past day, compared to 25 deaths and about 240 injured in the two days preceding that.