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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
BBC : Tehran alarm over US tough talk
2007-02-20
What will alarm Tehran about the latest details of US military planning for a strike on Iran is the fact that there are now two possible triggers for an attack. One is, as expected, the nuclear programme. But the new one is any major attack on US forces in Iraq that could be traced back to Iran.

With the head of the UN nuclear watchdog Mr ElBaradei saying it could take Iran another six to 12 months to get 3,000 centrifuges running, and four to six years to be able to produce a bomb if it wanted one, there is still time for negotiations on the nuclear front.
It took the U.S. four years to build a bomb with the Manhattan Project in the 1940s, and we had to invent all the theory and the engineering. The Mad Mullahs™ already know what the end-object is and roughly how it works, they just have to purify enough uranium and do the machining. They have today's knowledge, skills and technology. Why is that going to take six years?
But it is tensions over Iraq that have escalated sharply in recent weeks with the US arresting Iranians they say are members of the elite Qods Brigade of the Revolutionary Guards.
Unfair, so unfair! It's not fair, it's not! Not!
There is also a feeling among many analysts that the US has started building a case for war against Iran over its alleged interference in Iraq.
Which we should have been doing since 2003 ...
For many in Iran it seems unfair that the full blame for the violence in Iraq is suddenly being put on them and not on Sunni Arab countries that also back groups inside Iraq. They argue that the disintegration of Iraq is not in Iran's interests and they would like a stable neighbour with a predominately Shia government in power.

The US making public their targets for a possible military strike on Iran is likely to be seen in Tehran as part of ongoing Western pressure. In public, Iranian officials always brush off such news as psychological warfare by the US. The timing - just before the 21 February deadline set by the UN for Iran to halt its nuclear programme - is also likely to be seen as a threat intended to persuade Iran to back down.

In the Iranian establishment it appears there are deep differences of opinion about how grave the situation is.

Many Reformists™ and Moderates™ are very worried America is preparing for war, but Hardliners™ like President Mini-me Ahmedinejad seem to dismiss the risk believing their own propaganda that Iran is too powerful a nation to be attacked by the West.

Some take a middle position - arguing that the talk of war is a bluff - a means to pressure Iran. But they concede there is a possibility of an accidental war if Iranian Revolutionary Guards, for example, retaliated ?!!! against US forces in Iraq.
That would indeed be a strong possibility, at least until we killed all the IRG hard boyz ...
They compare the situation to the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers last summer by Hezbollah in Lebanon which triggered the war there. The argument is that if America provoked Iran enough by arresting key military figures inside Iraq ...
?!!! Oh, and are they admitting (again) they're operating in iraq?
... then their colleagues might be tempted to take Dire revenge and perhaps kidnap US soldiers ...
Because kidnapping is a valid, accepted tool among Nation-States.
... which would provide an excuse for air strikes on Iran.
And who knows more about kidnapping than the Iranians?
Among the Iranian people there is not much awareness of the drum beats of war. The local media is heavily controlled and censored and many Iranians do not speak a foreign language to allow them to access the international press. Independent websites in Persian have been filtered by the government, including the BBC's own Persian language site, in what some here believe is a deliberate attempt by the government to keep its own people in the dark.
That's usually what dictators do.
Unsubstantiated rumours circulate about when an attack might come but everyone goes about their lives as normal. There is no sense that people are preparing for difficult times ahead - but there is uncertainty and confusion about the future.
Posted by:anonymous5089

#7  The BBC is the subcontractor doing the censoring for the Ayatollahs, so it is in their interest not to self censor too much, at least in the Farsi version.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble   2007-02-20 21:19  

#6   Independent websites in Persian have been filtered by the government, including the BBC's own Persian language site

I wonder how much the BBC has self-filtered?
Posted by: Pappy   2007-02-20 21:12  

#5  And why WOULD the citizens of Iran be afraid of an American attack? It is obvious that we're tied down in Iraq, so there is not going to be any ground invasion. Very likely, it will be a short and precise air campaign with most of the ordinance dropped on suspected nuke fabrication sites. I think there are only two or three in subterranean bases built under university buildings. The JDAM has changed the way warfare is done, and soon will change the way warfare with the United states is regarded: "I don't live near a military base, so why should I worry?" will be the response of a large proportion of the population.

Posted by: Ptah   2007-02-20 20:37  

#4  I guessing 75% of the Iranian nuclear program is just a Potemkin village.

The other 25% scares the bejesus out of me.

Posted by: john   2007-02-20 19:53  

#3  It took the U.S. four years to build a bomb with the Manhattan Project in the 1940s, and we had to invent all the theory and the engineering. The Mad Mullahs™ already know what the end-object is and roughly how it works, they just have to purify enough uranium and do the machining. They have today's knowledge, skills and technology. Why is that going to take six years?

Because here in America we don't have 60-80% of our cash going to graft and kickbacks, 50-80% of materials "Vanish", And Work Stoppages 5 times a day to listen to brainwashing propoganda.
6 years sounds incredibly short given those "Conditions".
Posted by: Redneck Jim   2007-02-20 19:10  

#2  ... then their colleagues might be tempted to take Dire revenge and perhaps kidnap US soldiers ...

This is the stuff that has me worried - that some Quds Force idiot is going to decide on his own to start the Third Persian Gulf War without the Mullahs' permission. It sounds a lot like the beginning to WWII in Asia, if you think about it - Japanese officers, having convinced themselves that they were doing the right thing, pretty much started a war with China on their own. And the Japanese government - unable to repudiate them because their next target might BE the government - had no choice but to back them up. If Quds Force or an RG unit decided to take matters into their own hands (and there's a strong possibility that the original hostage crisis in '79 wasn't planned by the Ayatollahs - they just went along with it once they realized nothing was going to happen)the MMs wouldn't dare try to stop them for fear that they'd be next.

Mike
Posted by: Mike Kozlowski   2007-02-20 16:44  

#1  Btw, the iranian media situation and access to foreignnews strangely reminds me of France's (well, except for arabic-speaking sat TV, of course, which are freely available, unlike, say, FNC).
Posted by: anonymous5089   2007-02-20 12:30  

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