You have commented 339 times on Rantburg.

Your Name
Your e-mail (optional)
Website (optional)
My Original Nic        Pic-a-Nic        Sorry. Comments have been closed on this article.
Bold Italic Underline Strike Bullet Blockquote Small Big Link Squish Foto Photo
Europe
Poll: French election wide open
2007-03-12
France's presidential race remains wide open two months before the election, with Socialist Segolene Royal apparently rebounding and a dark-horse centrist candidate slowly but surely becoming a serious contender, a new poll published Wednesday suggested.

Nicolas Sarkozy, the main candidate on the right -- proposing tax cuts and labor reforms as remedies for France's sluggish economy -- still emerged as the narrow winner in the sounding of 884 people by pollsters CSA. The survey gave no margin of error. But Royal's steady if not dazzling performance on a prime-time question-and-answer TV talk show on Monday appears to have injected new life into her campaign.

It had seemed about to implode after a series of missteps on foreign affairs and scrutiny over the eventual costs to France of her promises to raise the minimum wage, guarantee job training for unemployed youths and other measures for a "fairer" society. Royal insisted on the show that France is ready for its first woman president and that she is up to the task -- rebutting critics who say that she -- a former environment, schools and family minister -- lacks experience in the most senior government posts and so is unsuitable. Royal showed particular compassion to a wheelchair-bound questioner, and newspaper Le Monde the next day dubbed her the "candidate-mother" of French politics.

The new poll, conducted after the broadcast attracted an estimated 8.9 million viewers, had Royal closing the gap on Sarkozy and even besting him in the first round of the two-round election. According to Le Parisien daily, which commissioned the poll with news channel I-Tele, 29 percent of respondents said they were most likely to vote for Royal on April 22, up two points from last week, compared with 28 percent for Sarkozy, down five points.

Dozens of would-be presidential hopefuls are working to get the signatures of 500 elected officials, usually mayors, that they need to register their candidacy. A record 16 candidates stood in 2002 and the first-round vote whittles the field to just two. If the duel on May 6 pits Sarkozy against Royal, 51 percent of respondents said they would likely vote for him, down four points from last week, against 49 percent for her, up four points. Polls of recent weeks have always put Sarkozy one or more steps ahead. But they also have exploded as myth the notion that this would be a purely two-horse contest between him and Royal.
Posted by:Fred

#4  Press: "Poll: French election wide open"

Reality: "Shock Sarko landslide"
Posted by: Bright Pebbles in Blairistan   2007-03-12 13:11  

#3  Of course that Bayrou would beat both: as a 'centric' candidate he would get his own votes, plus either Sarkozy's or Royal's votes while his opponent would get only part of the vote of his own side.

However as I said if Royal recovers only a bit he will bleed voters as fast as he had gained them.
Posted by: JFM   2007-03-12 09:21  

#2  So Royal would be worse domestically, but Bayrou would be worse in foreign policy?

I did see an article that said that if Bayrou gets to the second round, he would beat either Royal or Sarkozy.

Just wonderful.
Posted by: Jackal   2007-03-12 08:59  

#1  The equation is very simple:

Only the two leading candiadtes go second round. If Bayrou goes against Sarkozy he will benefit from left'zs votes and will win. if it is Royal agaisnt Sarkozy she will get trounced.

Now the raise of BAyrou is due to many left-wing people doubting of Royal's chances so his prospect votes are in fact very frail: if Royal appeared to have a chance many of Bayrou's first round prospevctive voters would return to their original affiliation ie Royal.

At this point it is in Sarkozy's interest to give the impresssion he could lose against Royal.


About antiamericanism. Bayrou is National-europesist. I think he would be worse then Royal respective to America. I can also predict what he will be thinking 30 seconds after getting elected: "How I get reeelcted?". From his past actions as minister I predict he will spend five yeras doing NOTHING and specially nothing who would lower his popularity by 0.0001%
Don't expect any help from him against Iran or on the WOT. In fact he will do the utmost to have a cold war EU-USA.
Posted by: JFM   2007-03-12 04:57  

00:00