 by Simon Tisdall
Predictions that the US-backed Ethiopian invasion of Somalia last Christmas would hasten rather than halt the country's political disintegration are proving grimly accurate.
| In fact, any opinion that stated, as its premise, that 'Somalia will be a shit-hole for decades to come regardless of whatever is done' would be 'grimly' accurate. |
In the league of failed states, Somalia is runaway leader. With international attention focused on Zimbabwe and Darfur, it is the hidden shame of the world.
| And a fat lot of good 'international attention' has done either Darfur or Zimbabwe. |
More than 1,000 civilians have been killed or wounded in recent fighting in the capital, Mogadishu, and tens of thousands have fled their homes. The UN says wounded civilians are lying untended in the streets after heavy artillery and mortars pounded residential areas. Since February, 96,000 refugees have swelled the ranks of Somalia's 400,000 internally displaced persons. And despite a temporary truce today, it seems likely that worse is to come.
| I suppose it could get worse. The ICU could gain back power and bring al-Qaeda in to help them. We could get a regional war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. But most of what's going on there is the 'same-old, same-old' of tribalism. With modern weapons. |
Ethiopia's defeat of local Islamist forces, known as the Council of Islamic Courts, that seized control of Mogadishu last year was accomplished with the help of American air strikes, intelligence and logistical support. It allowed the widely disavowed, western-approved transitional federal government (TFG) to expand its area of nominal control. It may have also furthered Washington's aim of curbing supposed al-Qaida efforts to "Talibanise" the Horn of Africa – although the evidence for that claim is thin.
| Which fit our interests pretty well, which is what GWB is required to consider first, isn't he. I don't think anyone thought the TFG would be choir-boys, and no one would ever consider them competent. But if the choice is TFG or al-Qaeda, I know where my money is. |
But the intervention, opposed by many Somalis and by Ethiopia's regional foe, Eritrea, was not nearly as decisive as its main architect, Ethiopia's prime minister, Meles Zenawi, has claimed.
| Other than chasing the ICU out of town like nancy-boys. |
In recent weeks the country has slipped back inexorably into a maelstrom of violent rivalries pitting hostile clans, resurgent warlords, militias, and foreign jihadis against each other in an ever more destructive struggle for dominance.
| In other words, just like the last couple thousand years. It's called tribalism, Simon, and you've seen it before. |
And far from being vanquished, the Islamists, whose support is largely drawn from the powerful Hawiye clan, may be making a comeback.
| They'll be tip-toeing around the Aethiops, however, since the Aethiops have this disturbing tendency to let fly with mass quantities of hot lead regardless of the number of 'civilians' around. |
"Politically Somalia has now been returned roughly to where it was when the TFG was formed in October 2004," says the latest report of the International Crisis Group. "The government is weak, unpopular and faction ridden, and the power vacuum in southern Somalia is rapidly being filled by the same faction leaders and warlords that the Courts overthrew.
| Politically Somalia has been returned to about 800 BC. |
"Many Mogadishu residents resent the Courts' defeat, feel threatened by the TFG and are dismayed by the presence of Ethiopian troops," the report added.
| Many Mog residents were unhappy about being forced to grow beards and close the movie theaters. How quickly they forget. |
"Ethiopia's victory has dismantled only the most visible part of the Courts. Other elements, including the militant Shabaab leadership, remain largely intact ... The grassroots network of mosques, schools and private enterprises remain in place and continues to expand thanks to contributions from Islamic charities."
| Contributions to the Widows Ammunition Fund are just flowing in. |
Despite an emergency meeting in Cairo today of the international contact group, which includes the US and Britain, and plans for a national reconciliation conference on April 16, Somalia's prospects look bleak.
| But no bleaker than before the Aethiops came to town, when the choice was a weak, goofy TFG or a nasty, brutish ICU. |
The African Union has failed to insert an effective peacekeeping force. Only Uganda has sent troops so far – and they have become targets, rather than arbiters, as the weekend killing of a peacekeeper showed.
| The Ugs might want to learn from the Aethiops -- mass quantities of hot lead aimed appropriately can be quite pacificing. |
Meanwhile previously peaceful Somaliland and Puntland in the north show signs of incipient instability.
| And that's the shame, since particularly Somaliland was on its way to escaping this mess. |
Several attempts by Mr Zenawi to set a timetable for an Ethiopian withdrawal, as volubly urged by Eritrea (which is backing the Courts), have meanwhile been thwarted by continuing resistance. He announced on March 13 that his troops would pull out in two phases. But two days later, Ethiopia's foreign minister promised the troops would stay until the TFG was in control "across Somalia" – which by most estimates, will be a very long time indeed. The Ethiopians now face an Iraq-style quagmire.
| The ICU doesn't want them to leave, the ICU wants them to stay as a rallying point for jihadis from all around the Mideast. You just wait and you'll see Yemenis, Syrians and (of course) Paleos helping their country brethern out. |
According to Michael Weinstein of the Power & Interest News Report, the reluctance of the TFG president, Abdullahi Yusuf, to negotiate genuine power-sharing arrangements with moderate Islamists and other forces is likely to scupper the reconciliation conference.
| And with who is he supposed to negotiate? It's all tribalism again; tribal chiefs take delight in shifting alliances and changing sides (but always being true to themselves). 'Negotiations' are a waste of time. |
Having waited so long to gain power, and after so many years of bitter strife, factions within the transitional government were now reluctant to relinquish any part of it to erstwhile enemies.
The western powers, neighbouring countries such as Kenya, and donor countries faced a dilemma, Dr Weinstein said. "If they press the TFG into open reconciliation talks, they risk its implosion; if they stand back and let Yusuf proceed with his approach to reconciliation, they risk increasing instability."
| Implosion and instability seem to define Somalia since its independence. It's not like we've not seen this before. If you really want to fix the place turn it into a UN mandate and let the Italians run it for a few more generations. |
Even if it takes place, the April 16 peace conference was "highly unlikely to succeed," he concluded. Instead its failure may signal the next stage of Somalia's unremarked descent into the inferno.
| It isn't descending, it's been there. |
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