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| Iraq |
| Michael Yon: an E-mail From the Front |
| 2007-05-18 |
| Reported at Instapundit: I cannot believe my eyes and ears in Anbar. Very quiet where I am. Did a foot patrol today with Iraqi Army and a couple of Marines. Local population was friendly. Have not heard a shot fired in anger in days. (Whereas before the sounds of war were nearly always in the air.) |
| Posted by:Mike |
| #12 Why would Iran (Shia) keep a Sunni insurgency alive? Because their interests lie more in stirring up trouble than in taking over. By keeping the violence at a fever pitch, they make the US look bad -- might even hand the US another defeat. They also prevent a stable, free, Arab nation with a Shia majority from popping up and challenging their dictatorship. |
| Posted by: Rob Crawford 2007-05-18 18:23 |
| #11 eLarson, thanks for the proper quote. My long term memory gets dim this time of week. |
| Posted by: RWV 2007-05-18 17:50 |
| #10 "Cry HAVOc and loose the dogs of war" |
| Posted by: RWV 2007-05-18 17:28 |
| #9 "Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war" - Shakespeare, Julius Caesar |
| Posted by: eLarson 2007-05-18 17:23 |
| #8 Uh, HAVO? |
| Posted by: Jonathan 2007-05-18 15:41 |
| #7 HAVO-- oh wait, not yet. |
| Posted by: eLarson 2007-05-18 15:26 |
| #6 From Steve Schippert at The Tank of National Review... from his observations, Diyala is going the way of Anbar... join together and fight The sectarian violence of Sunni v. Shi'a is not an intrinsic Iraqi development, but rather a foreign instigation. Al-Qaeda in Iraq is led by foreign terrorists, its funding and direction comes from foreign sources and 80-90% of its suicide bombers are foreign (the majority of the 'shaheeds' being Yemeni). On the Shi'a side, the majority of the extra-judicial killing (EJK) cells are professionally trained by the IRGC in Iran and paid by the Iranian government. They are the extremist core (appx. 3,000) of what once was Muqtada al-Sadr's 'Mahdi Army' that remains active. The rest of Muqtada's 'army' (estimated by the Baker Commission at around 60,000) has been splintered and largely returned to the basic street thuggery and neighborhood criminal activity. The Iranian-backed and directed EJK cells' express mission is to hunt and kill Sunnis to drive them from mixed Baghdad neighborhoods and instigate sectarian violence through Sunni reprisals. The goal: Chaos. Al-Qaeda in Iraq employs the 'spectacular' car and truck bombs expressly to kill two groups of Iraqis. First are the Sunni tribes who have refused to submit to al-Qaeda rule and surrender their sons to al-Qaeda's jihad, such as the Abu Issa tribe of the Fallujah area, which is split along rural/urban lines regarding al-Qaeda. Indeed, the 'recalcitrant' bands of the Abu Issa have been targeted with at least one of al-Qaeda's widely publicized chlorine-laden bombs. The Goal: Tribal Submission. The second group targeted by al-Qaeda are Shi'a civilians for the purpose of instigating sectarian violence though Shi'a reprisals. After all, foreigner-led al-Qaeda successfully touched off the debilitating sectarian violence by bombing the Shi'a al-Askari mosque in Samara on February 22, 2006 only after talk of reconciliation following the successful Iraqi elections and constitutional referendum. This earned them the perception of Iraqi civil war. The Goal: Chaos. Essentially, over one year later, if the sectarian killings are down, al-Qaeda must address this. And with the security in Baghdad tighter (because of that horrible phrase, "The Surge") and the holes within it fewer, the number of opportunities have declined. Therefor, when a hole is found, al-Qaeda's going to get their money's worth. The attacks are far fewer, but each bomb is far larger. So when 'some critics' point out that violence from death squads is down but car bombs are still going off and killing people, it should be considered that the 'Mahdi Army' has been splintered with its leadership (Sadr and his top men) driven from Iraq, and that al-Qaeda in Iraq has not been dealt such a blow yet. But the rise of Sheikh Abdul Sattar's Anbar Salvation Council and the defection of Iraqi tribes from al-Qaeda to his anti-al-Qaeda movement is 'putting the squeeze' on al-Masri and his terrorist cohorts. Yes, they are still capable of loading explosives into cars and trucks. And they are even capable of conducting a successful Hamas/Hizballah-style troop abduction. But they didn't relocate their corporate headquarters from Anbar province to the smaller Diyala province because the rent was cheaper and the amusement parks better. And even in Diyala, the Sattar-aligned Diyala Salvation Council has risen from the dusty streets, already taking on al-Qaeda to reclaim their home. Meanwhile, the observant will note that US and Iraqi forces are taking positions around Diyala, still gathering to sufficient numbers. And likely in a matter of weeks, General Petraeus will finally loose the dogs of war. And from Defend America Tribal Leaders Across Diyala Reaffirm Commitment to Unity TIKRIT, Iraq, May 17, 2007 — As coalition and Iraqi security forces continue to provide security and stability throughout Diyala Province, Iraq, many tribal leaders are also united in their efforts to bring peace and stand up against al-Qaida in Iraq. After a peace agreement was signed between the paramount sheiks of the Karki and Shimouri tribes, April 30, other tribal leaders gathered throughout the region to do the same – provide peace and protection for their people and their lands. At the Al Abarrah Iraq Army compound, local leaders gathered, May 10, to pave a way ahead for peace between some of the rival villages and gain a commitment toward a unified stand against al-Qaida while supporting the government. The leaders also focused on establishing a police force in Zaganiyah. “We’re beginning to have real success in the area,” said U.S. Army Capt. Michael Few, A Company, 5th Squadron, 73rd Cavalry Regiment commander, who is attached to the 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division. “As long as we can continue these talks, there is hope for the people of Diyala.” You might want to read that entire article. Diyala may become the teorrists last stand if Petraeus does "loose the dogs of war". |
| Posted by: Sherry 2007-05-18 14:59 |
| #5 According to Yon and others, the Anbar tribes, most of them, have switched sides. They are actively going after the al Q foreigners and have even sent a force to another province to fight briefly. The recruits for the police and army have to take a number and the locals are showing up at Marine OPs with IEDs they've found. Possibly the result down the road would be enough organization and power to become semi-autonomous. But, in any event, the Sunnis don't want to pay what the Shia want to collect for their part in Saddaam's repression. They can't avoid that if they lose, so doing the best they can to position themselves on the winning side is their best bet. Now that the jarheads have demonstrated that they'd lose. |
| Posted by: RIchard Aubrey 2007-05-18 14:48 |
| #4 Why would Iran (Shia) keep a Sunni insurgency alive? I think the Sunni insurgency is basically the Baathist tribes loyal to Saddam and his inner circle plus the AQ and the released Abu Grahib prison population (on eve of the war). What is happening is the Petraeus Theory of CI in practice - get the other tribes on your side, give them money to do the things they want to do (not what some State ninny wants to do), make yourself visible (not barracked) and protect them while they wean out the bad guys. Seems to be working. |
| Posted by: Jack is Back! 2007-05-18 13:42 |
| #3 Jonathan, If they have moved out of Anbar, that is very good news. The other hot spots are near the Iranian border. It means the only thing keeping the "Sunni insurgency" alive is Iran. (Plus our own media, of course). Al |
| Posted by: Frozen Al 2007-05-18 12:58 |
| #2 With Clear and Hold, it's the Hold part that remains problematic. Still, it's a good sign. |
| Posted by: doc 2007-05-18 12:47 |
| #1 Have the sunni terrorists moved to Diyala or Baghdad, or have they truly laid down their arms? If the former, the problem has simply moved down the line; if the latter, we're winning. |
| Posted by: Jonathan 2007-05-18 12:36 |