The Taliban's much-vaunted spring offensive has stalled apparently due to lack of organisation after dozens of middle-ranking commanders were killed by British troops in the past year, according to military sources.The death last week of the key Taliban leader Mullah Dadullah at the hands of American special forces has harmed the Taliban's morale to the point that local commanders are having to tell their troops to "remain professional" despite the loss.
| I'm still ululating over Deadullah's demise. |
A spring offensive was ordered by the Taliban leadership based in Quetta, Pakistan, and was meant to be launched in late March. But a lack of mid-level commanders has meant that there has been little co-ordination to bring about the offensive.
"They are getting strategic guidance from Quetta but this is not translating on the ground," a military source said. "It's a bit premature to discuss the Taliban as a spent force. I believe that they are struggling but still maintain a capability to carry out attacks on a daily basis. But I would suggest in the long term the Taliban may just peter out."
| That's usually what happens to insurgencies unless they get outside support in the press and world opinion. |
British commanders are still braced for a possible upsurge in attacks over the summer. An "increase in enemy tempo" is expected and already the number of clashes has risen from five a day to 15, lasting from 10 minutes to 11 hours.
Within Helmand there is a small group of "irreconcilable" Taliban leading a force of about 1,000, which is reinforced by Chechen, Arab and Uzbek fighters. Some are part-time farmers supplementing their income by earning $25 a day by fighting.
| I'd offer them $25 a day -- and their lives -- to stop. |