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| Britain |
| "Inept" terrorists? |
| 2007-07-03 |
| This is from a discussion thread at National Review's military affairs blogg, "The Tank." Gregory rightly said, "Sometimes even the inept terrorists are successful, and we should never forget that." And as he alluded to, I would openly state that readers should very cautiously doubt just how inept the UK terrorists involved in this weekend's attempts really were. Here's why: There were three very powerful bombs, made completely of openly available materials and designed to duplicate similar bomb designs from Iraq and elsewhere that have the convenience of military grade high explosives as the triggered initiator for the blast. Other than that (largely), the designs were - in even their basic publicly sketched appearance - the same. And the only failure was common throughout each one: Failing dual cell phone triggering mechanisms. We almost certainly do not know the half of this weekend's bomb designs being publicly supplied to and reported by the media outlets. It can be almost universally assumed that they were far more intricate than simply gasoline and propane tanks with zip-lock baggies full of nails taped to them. Though I have no direct knowledge of the specific design, I know enough to be confident that I have not yet laid eyes on the true complexity of the design. Nor has anyone currently calling these terrorists 'inept.' I have, however, maintained in various offline discussions since Friday that there was either a minute (and system-fatal) flaw with the triggering designs or in the end-point bomb maker's implementation of them. The same failure indicates the same failed design or the same failed implementation, perhaps both. This is a minor issue technically. Important, but minor. And it will be overcome by an intelligent and adaptive enemy. These were not 'cheesy' or 'amateur' bombs. They were bombs smartly made with materials designed to avoid detection...with a consistent glitch in the triggering mechanisms. Those who wish to dismiss the attempted bombings as 'amateurish' would be well advised to quietly reconsider. This would have been more deadly than the vast majority of bombing attacks by Palestinian terrorists in Israel. And we don't call them inept, do we? Hint: No. We don't. Because intent is intent and dead is dead. And the enemy learns and adapts. |
| Posted by:Mike |
| #8 Pappy, It might be a good idea to flood the net with five or six very professional designs to take some copycats out of the genepool. |
| Posted by: Super Hose 2007-07-03 23:49 |
| #7 They only have to get it right once. |
| Posted by: Pappy 2007-07-03 23:38 |
| #6 With a more reliable trigger mechanism and a not uncommon phosphorus-based component which I will not mention here, these could have been inordinately powerful and destructive explosive devices. In this age where so much information is just a link or two away, we have to assume the worst as far as the harm which can be inflicted by those with both intent and access to basic technology. This near miss must be responded to as if it went off as planned because persistence even across many years is a characteristic of this enemy. They may use a subtly different method next time and perhaps pick a slightly different target, but something very similar will be attempted again and relying on their incompetence is suicidal. In a similar vein, I am certain that security forces are taking special pains to watch for suspicious activity involving transit hubs over the next few weeks as this has also fit the targeting pattern in recent years. |
| Posted by: Grumenk Philalzabod0723 2007-07-03 20:25 |
| #5 It appears the detonator in the Haymarket bomb went off causing a small fire, and probably the Glasgow 'bomb' as well. I'll speculate that home made explosives failed to explode or just burnt. It is very difficult to get your hands on commercial explosives in the UK. Had the explosives ruptured the propane tanks causing sudden release, there would be a large flash fire and to some degree an explosion (propane leaks regularly cause explosions) especially in an enclosed space like an airport terminal. The failure of the cell phone trigger looks like mis-information. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2007-07-03 18:28 |
| #4 I have to disagree with claim that these bombs were of highly competent design. The bombs didn't contain any high explosives. Absent any high explosives to propel them, the nails were a total waste of effort. While it is true that the propane could have formed a vapor cloud that might have exploded, the explosion would have been a large-volume, low-order blast with the nails near the center of that large volume. With the nails at the center of the blast, there is no mechanism to propel them outward. The mistake the perps made, and that many subsequent observers are also making is to believe that propane tanks can themselves explode like bombs. They can't; they contain fuel but no oxidizer. Heat from the petrol fire could have caused the propane to boil and in turn rupture the tanks, causing a release of the propane. The propane might then possibly ignite in such a way as to create a large-volume, low-order explosion. However, even that is very unlikely since the propane tanks probably had pressure-relief valves designed to prevent such an occurrence. What the perps did was to build large fire bombs and load them with shrapnel, which shows them to be a bit unclear on the concept. I'm not suggesting that people not take these attacks seriously, but I do think the destructive potential of these particular car bombs has been wildly exaggerated. |
| Posted by: Biff Wellington 2007-07-03 13:39 |
| #3 This was an amazingly close call and would have resulted in the death and maiming of hundreds of young Brits, much worse than the Bali episode. MI5 knows this. This would have eclipsed 7/7 by orders of magnitude. A slight malfunction and a tremendous amount of fortune are all that stood in the way. I wonder if the British public realize this? They are so proud of their ability to "carry on". When several of these tragedies occur and there is bits of corpses scattered across several blocks radii, splattered several stories high, I wonder if it will get their attention ? |
| Posted by: Woozle Elmeter2970 2007-07-03 11:52 |
| #2 Maybe some naughty person has flooded the black market with dodgy detonators. |
| Posted by: Bright Pebbles in Blairistan 2007-07-03 09:10 |
| #1 Any thoughts as to why, despite several calls, the cell phones failed to ignite the London Car Bombs? |
| Posted by: doc 2007-07-03 09:07 |