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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Aoun needs Syria's help to win in Lebanon |
| 2007-08-08 |
| The myriad of political insight exposed in Sunday's election have left each political camp to brag about a moral victory. One fact is indisputable, outside of Beirut and Damascus, there were no clear winners on Sunday. Former general Michel Aoun's candidate, Camille Khoury, won 39,534 votes, against 39,116 votes for Amin Gemayel. Aoun's narrow margin victory of 400 votes, or half a percent, in the Christian-dominated Metn district in Lebanon, pales in comparison to the 80% popularity he claims to have among Lebanon's Christian population. Aoun's 80% popularity turned out to be among Lebanon's Armenian community, who's main political party joined pro-Syrian Michel Murr in an alliance with Aoun days before Sunday's election. Aoun's support among his own religious sect, the Maronite Christians, was far less flattering. While his candidate may have won in the elections on Sunday, the move may backfire on Aoun's relentless, on the verge of desperate, drive to become president. Less than half of the Maronites who voted on Sunday, voted for Aoun. Since Lebanon's president must be a Maronite Christian, any candidate should at a minimum have substantial support from their own sect. The Maronite backlash at Michel Aoun can be traced back to his widely unpopular alliance with the staunch Syria-aligned Hezbollah. Syria has always needed a Christian puppet in Lebanon to represent its interests. Now that the top Syrian General in Lebanon, Lebanese president Emile Lahoud, is all out of unconstitutional extensions, and is due to leave office in two months, Syria is pulling all the strings it has left in Lebanon to force Aoun in as the next puppet. The current president, Emile Lahoud, presents a clear example of how divided Lebanon will remain if he is replaced with another Syrian puppet. According to Abu Kais of Beirut to the Beltway, it was the Syrian president who won on Sunday: If anyone got a boost, it's the Assad killing machine, which proved still capable of assassinating deputies and replacing them with others. Aoun supporters should look closely at who really won the Metn election: the real winner is the Assad regime. They are losing their street so that the Assad regime can further its goals. Aoun's popularity among Christians does not matter to Assad, as long as the former general continues to provide a cover for the plot to bring down the government and divide the Christian community?which has always been the heart of the anti-Syrian opposition. Sadly, Aoun's supporters have convinced themselves that they're being forward-looking by striking alliances with the pro-Syrian camp.Sunday's elections clearly showed that Aoun needs the support of Syria and the pro-Syrian political groups in Lebanon to scrape in a victory. Winning by the narrowest of margins in the Christian heartland was a significant setback for Aoun's aspirations to be president, despite the comparably minor victory for his candidate. |
| Posted by:Fred |