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| Is civilization reversible? -- Jerry Pournelle |
| 2007-08-09 |
Pournelle reviews this NY Times opinion piece.I wondered whether the complete change in cultures in England will allow the maintenance of First World Civilization there, given that the people who built the civilization aren't having kids, emigrate often, and generally are being absorbed into an entirely different culture -- indeed with the enthusiastic cooperation of the Crown and government. |
| Posted by:Anguper Hupomosing9418 |
| #22 Is civilization reversable? Visit Detroit. Spot on, Kelly. Of course, someone else already brought up N'awlins (ya know, the "Chocolate City") after Katrina, though. What IS scary is how little the average Jane or Joe on the street know about how much energy it takes to keep their lives civilized. From paving miles of hot asphalt in the hot summer sun, to keeping pumps running and pipes from crumbling to keep raw sewage outta your home, to drill rig operators off the Gulf Coast who risk life and limb to bring us that "black gold," your average city-dweller NO LONGER KNOWS how much energy goes into making that cup of Starbucks or that McDonald's "burger." They WILL find out soon enough, though, if'n they continue to lie down with dogs and bring fleas in the house. |
| Posted by: BA 2007-08-09 21:25 |
| #21 RADICAL MULLAHS > Radical Islam will prevail becuz, besides the power of Allah-Heaven,no need to fear the "oil cataclysm" becuz camels don't use oil, no need to fear rising oceans becuz camels can swim, no need to fear ice ages becuz they live in desert/torrid regions, and no need to fear the Sun + Global-Solar Warming/Nova becuz in the desert/torrid areas only the Strong = Males survive, rule, and maintain order for the sake-survival of the group. Iff Radical islam does not prevail in war, it will prevail by outlasting and frustrating its enemies, + letting the West/Non-Muslim World destroy itself from within. *As a reminder, O'REILLY > Radical Enviros-Globalists are mostly ANTI-MATERIALISTS, ANTI-CAPITALISTS, ANTI-REPUBLICAN/FEDERALISTS, and ANTI-DEMOCRATICISTS/LIBERTARIANISTS and similar. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2007-08-09 19:58 |
| #20 I'm not sure that represents retrogression. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2007-08-09 19:47 |
| #19 Look whats happening in the Louisiana South in the aftermath of Katrina, pretty dismal "dark ages" going on there. |
| Posted by: Grating tse Tung3410 2007-08-09 19:23 |
| #18 Is civilization reversable? Visit Detroit. |
| Posted by: kelly 2007-08-09 18:33 |
| #17 One of the major contributors to the 'threat' is a 'professional' education establishment that has moved its rationale for existence from preparing youth to work and operate in the modern world and instead indoctrinating them into good Winston Smiths of Oceania. Form over function. Word, Procopius2k. Style over substance, sic transit gloria mundi. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2007-08-09 18:21 |
| #16 Someone once said something to the effect of "beware of societies that do not praise great plumbing because it is a humble art, but do praise shoddy philosophy. Neither their theories nor their pipes will hold water." Sounds like the |
| Posted by: Barbara Skolaut 2007-08-09 18:08 |
| #15 I think I saw someone on this site once write that there is no such thing as a menial job. If anyone thinks ditch digging is menial they should try living without ditches for a while. It will give them a new appreciation for ditch diggers. To quote Ted Knight from Caddyshack. "Well the world needs ditch diggers too." |
| Posted by: Cheaderhead 2007-08-09 17:37 |
| #14 Is civilization reversable? Ask Rhodesia, the Union of South Africa or those in post-Shah Iran. Yes all three nations were unpleasant before but they are all retreating from the First World as quickly as possible. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2007-08-09 17:35 |
| #13 I think civilization will last just about as long as your job does once you stop showing up for work. |
| Posted by: Iblis 2007-08-09 16:50 |
| #12 Re: #7 I think I saw someone on this site once write that there is no such thing as a menial job. If anyone thinks ditch digging is menial they should try living without ditches for a while. It will give them a new appreciation for ditch diggers. |
| Posted by: Eboreg 2007-08-09 16:37 |
| #11 I hope John is right; but I am not sure I agree that civilization is irreversible. There used to be a country called Rhodesia. A perfect snark! |
| Posted by: 3dc 2007-08-09 14:27 |
| #10 I've said for years now that when the barbarians wrest control of europe, it will very quickly look like the shitholes they come from, not europe. Majority rules in europe dumbasses, now just sit back and stare blankly as you become a minority. |
| Posted by: bigjim-ky 2007-08-09 13:25 |
| #9 GREAT summary, P2K! I truly believe we are more close to collapse than most realize. And, those who'll be strung up first are in bed with those who'll conquer us. As many other engineers here, I know what it takes to keep modern day America going. From coal-powered power plants, to the "average Joes" working on your water and sewer lines and plants, to the road crews maintaining MILLIONS of miles of roads, bridges, tunnels, etc., your average person on the street has NO CLUE on what "goes on beneath". For example, look at the recent steam pipe explosion in NYC and the bridge collapse in Minn. And, yet, those who dish out the moolah for these projects are more content to build "a bridge to nowhere" than they are maintaining what already exists. We're gonna have a HUGE price to pay soon for all these repairs, but if we continue to "kick the can down the road" it only builds up more. And, New Orleans was the fault of leadership at the local and State levels. Absolutely nothing to do with the Feds. |
| Posted by: BA 2007-08-09 13:17 |
| #8 Just look at New Orleans when the power, clean water, waste disposal, infrastructure to support the arrival of food and the like, breaks down. Only the existence of means just outside the immediate area to support a rapid recovery diverted an even greater disaster. Had Katrina happened as late the the '30s, you'd seen what the preindustrial society would have looked like, as both massive resources and funding wouldn't been, to paraphrase a statement accredited to a southerner, "thar fustest with the mostest". One of the major contributors to the 'threat' is a 'professional' education establishment that has moved its rationale for existence from preparing youth to work and operate in the modern world and instead indoctrinating them into good Winston Smiths of Oceania. Form over function. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2007-08-09 12:18 |
| #7 Anyone else see the most recent episode of "Dirty Jobs"? Mike helped (more or less) the Makinac Bridge maintenance crew. They were scraping and painting one of the pylons -- the interior -- to prevent rust. As the guy who normally does that job said, "It has to be done." Then he helped paint some of the suspension cables. Apparently every exposed surface is repainted each year. It takes a massive amount of effort to maintain even the basics of civilization. The traces can hang around a long time -- there are large buildings supported by Roman-era construction in Rome and Istanbul -- but the functions take work. And, again, I'm reminded of a couple of shows I've seen about archaeology. One was at the site of the city that appears to have been the home of the Queen of Sheba. Something like 3,000 years ago, the locals built a dam to catch the seasonal rains, and created a massive lake. They used that lake for irrigation and built a rich, powerful city. That site's in Yemen. The present occupants sure don't seem interested in rebuilding the dam. Exact opposite, in fact -- archaeologists studying the site have to keep an eye out for the jihadis. Civilization takes work. The more people assume it just "happens", the less likely it is to last. (BTW -- I think "Dirty Jobs" isn't just a good show, but one of the best. Rowe respects everyone he meets, and the show's opening includes a line about "the men and women who make our way of life possible".) |
| Posted by: Rob Crawford 2007-08-09 11:50 |
| #6 A better example is China. The Chinese invented paper, gunpowder, the compass, the rudder, planting crops in rows and many, many other technologies centuries before the west. And all it got them was the opium wars. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2007-08-09 11:29 |
| #5 ---- I don't think "near annihilation" is necessary to roll things backwards a few centuries. Collapse of the oil export process alone might do it. ---- I'm one fish who is very aware of the water he swims in & drinks & is intensely grateful to those who have contributed & to those who are still contributing. |
| Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 2007-08-09 11:26 |
| #4 Thank you AH! That is exactly what I mean; we benefit so completely from a high degree of civilization that most of us manage to be unaware of it! Like fish are unaware of water, I suppose. |
| Posted by: Sgt. Mom 2007-08-09 11:06 |
| #3 This is a multi-part question. To begin with, the first question should be "Is Technology Reversible?", to which the answer is yes. Technology advances are based on need, skill, experience, knowledge, and retention. As such, our society has 'critical points' in technology where one or more of these things is lacking. Not too long ago, Syria lost the last of its traditional makers of "Damascus steel" for swords, and as that knowledge was passed down in families, not written down, it is gone forever. Of course, with metallurgy today we can make far finer steels, but never again will there be any new Damascus steel. The next question should be "Is Technology Sustainable?", and it has its own criteria. For example, major universities in the US once taught nuclear explosives engineering, the peaceful use of nuclear explosives to build earthen dams, dig canals, etc. But civilization decided it was not sustainable as a technology--just too many negatives. The third element is "The Institutions of Civilization", which are many and manifold. If these are preserved most anywhere, civilization survives, as they will masterfully reinvent themselves in less civilized places. But this is tempered with barbarism: The rejection of civilization which demands its destruction. But even this is no longer pure anarchy, just antiquated systems that once represented civilization trying to overwhelm those that came later and were far superior. So the bottom line is only if mankind is reduced to near annihilation is there any chance for an end to civilization. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2007-08-09 10:51 |
| #2 Sgt Mom, I read the post you cited & it was excellent. Some of my hobbies are camping, hiking & genealogy. They've given me an intense and physical appreciation of civilization and its amenities. For example, last summer I came down with a kidney stone after hiking in 90 degree weather in 13th century Chaco Canyon. I drove 150 miles to Albuquerque, found a 24-hour Walmart, bought some NSAID's and Tylenol & took them with relish. Excellent relief in 45 minutes. My great grandfather died of kidney stones in 1873. My locked up knee was healed by arthroscopic surgery only recently invented. My aunt Janet died of rabies in 1928, after colliding with a bat in her kitchen doorway. Because her family was both impoverished and ignorant of the significance of this chance encounter, she was not immunized & died in an agonizing manner. My pregnant niece was struck by gallstones in her 6th month, and was successfully treated & had a full term delivery. This wouldn't have happened as recently as 125 years ago. What have the Romans ever done for us? |
| Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 2007-08-09 10:40 |
| #1 Oh yes... it is, and it would happen very easily; more easily than most people like to think. And it happened to the Romans, after all. Consider what life would have been like for ordinary people in Imperial times... and then look at what it would have been like in the dark ages, as I did, here. |
| Posted by: Sgt. Mom 2007-08-09 10:01 |