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| India-Pakistan |
| More convulsions in Pakistan |
| 2007-10-21 |
| Najam Sethi's E d i t o r i a l Benazir Bhutto’s second homecoming in 2007 is significantly different from her first in 1986. Twenty one years ago, she was a defiant, anti-establishment heroine who radiated revolt and resistance. Today she is a tired and tainted politician seeking rapprochement with the establishment. The crowds who surged to welcome her then were spontaneous, hopeful and idealistic. Those of today have been whipped up by savvy party loyalists. Then she came to topple an entrenched and ruthless military dictator. Today she has pledged to prop up a wannabe democrat. Given the popular urge for democracy, those were revolutionary times for politics. But given the extremist backlash, this could be a counter-revolutionary turning point for Pakistan. Hence the paradox: there was no threat to her life then whereas she is a prime target today. Equally significantly, if she was young and foolish for taking on the establishment and being chucked out of office twice at that time, is she wise and worldly now, will she succeed in capturing power for the third time and leading Pakistan to a moderate and democratic future? Whatever the moralistic brigade may say, Ms Bhutto’s sense of real-politik is sound. There is a serious crack in the establishment and she means to get a toehold. Drumming up a massive welcome by the flock is good politics. Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry showed how the media could be manipulated to transform thousands of “black coats” into hundreds of thousands of “people” for effect, just as the Aziz brothers conjured up the resistance of hundreds of extremists to signify the opposition of millions to the state’s attack on the Lal Masjid terrorists. Equally, Nawaz Sharif’s inability to generate surging crowds when he tried to return to Pakistan last month hurt his cause and contributed to his recent oblivion in the media. Therefore the demonstration effect of Ms Bhutto’s tumultuous welcome is likely to lead to a surge in her ratings and make her a major player in the general elections. By that yardstick alone, she has scored high on the comeback-trail. Some people say that the PMLQ is not about to sit back and enjoy the spectacle of being sidelined in the affections of General Pervez Musharraf or the public. So the Sindh and Punjab Chief Ministers should be expected to muddy the waters. But there is another side to this obstacle which makes it a win-win situation for Ms Bhutto. Repression will only make her seem more “heroic”. It will rub off the pro-establishment label and make the media more sympathetic to her. Much the same goodwill will accrue to her if she is physically attacked by religious extremists and acquires the halo of a living martyr. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court could disown the NRO, thereby reinforcing the public sentiment against her alleged corruption. But in the current charged environment this too could be transformed into an opportunity to flog her innocence. With the government committed to withdrawing the charges, Ms Bhutto could welcome the axing of the Ordinance “in deference to her respect for the Supreme Court” and self-righteously claim that she is prepared to face the charges and seek acquittal. With the administration looking the other way and the prosecution pussyfooting in court, can you imagine the PPP mobs outside any court that tries to haul her up for a trial? In the event, every court hearing would become another public show of strength by Ms Bhutto and her supporters, a continuous media-trial in her favour. At this rate, Ms Bhutto would soon be tipped to win the general elections and, if necessary, to sweep out the wannabe-democrat general-president along the way as well. But these are not the only reasons why President Musharraf and the ruling party didn’t want her to return to Pakistan in the first place and why the establishment may still lean on her to return to Dubai as soon as possible. Their fear is that the SC may soon hold the government in contempt for packing off Nawaz Sharif to Jeddah while the Saudi Arabian government insists that if Ms Bhutto has been allowed to play the field then so should Mr Sharif. In the event, Mr Sharif would announce his return, his supporters would try to outdo Ms Bhutto’s welcome and the game would slip out of General Musharraf’s hands. Repression would make Mr Sharif look heroic; acquiescence would lead to a stampede from the ruling party into the ranks of the PMLN and denude it of its electoral prospects. Of course, the curtain could come down on Ms Bhutto, Mr Sharif and the Supreme Court if General Musharraf were compelled to wrap up this noisy “transition to democracy”. Originally, it was thought that this option might be exercised if the SC refused to enable General Musharraf to become President Musharraf. But the more credible threat to General Musharraf now stems from the rising prospects of both Ms Bhutto and Mr Sharif in the forthcoming elections. The only way General Musharraf can “manage” the situation is by keeping Mr Sharif out and the SC at bay. But that, as things stand right now, seems like a tall order. The thunderous arrival of Ms Bhutto on the scene has set the stage for more convulsions in Pakistan. |
| Posted by:Fred |
| #2 MMA support - and that party is now crippled - has never been more than a paltry 10%, and is negligible in Sindh and the Punjab. A Musharaf-Bhutto unity government, especially if they looked the other way should the MQM once again start slaughtering Jamaat-i-Islami jihadis, can easily crush the jihadis. When will a Western leader admit that the Pashtos and Waziris have untold billions in drug money? They no longer have to rely on financing from black sheep in the House of Saud. Republicans do NOT want to go into a federal election with Democrats flashing photos of huge, brand new heroin factories operating with impunity in "occupied" Afghanistan. GOP members should want their leaders to eradicated Helmand County opium with Napalm. The Taliban won't be crushed until Central Asia is made into a Condi-Free-Zone. |
| Posted by: McZoid 2007-10-21 06:04 |
| #1 If you have the stomach for it, go to the bbc news site and read the "have your say" letters on Bhutto. Cesspool |
| Posted by: 3dc 2007-10-21 00:39 |