Venezuela's democracy reaches a major crossroads Sunday when voters decide whether to eliminate term limits and allow Hugo Chávez to remain in the presidency potentially for life. Judging by his declining poll ratings, it would appear that Venezuelans are taking stock of Mr. Chávez's mercurial behavior and questioning whether his brand of international hostility is in their best interests. This month alone, OPEC leaders bristled when he urged oil exporters to adopt anti-U.S. policies. He froze relations with Spain after King Juan Carlos told him to shut up. This week, the Venezuelan leader is immersed in a dangerous new spat with President Alvaro Uribe in neighboring Colombia.
Previous verbal exchanges with world leaders could easily be dismissed as the rants of another socialist autocrat. But when it involves conflict with Colombia, the stakes increase exponentially and put two top U.S. strategic priorities – oil and the war on drugs – into play.
The newest spat developed after Mr. Uribe invited Mr. Chávez to mediate with Colombia's biggest rebel group. Mr. Uribe canceled the mediation after he accused Mr. Chávez of violating diplomatic protocol, bypassing the presidency in Bogotá and engaging in unauthorized talks with Colombia's military chief.
Mr. Chávez called the decision a "spit in the face." He cautioned Mr. Uribe against "warmongering" and declared reconciliation at this point "impossible."
This is the first such international confrontation in which Mr. Chávez and his adversary can do more than merely engage in trash talk. They can punish each other militarily across a long and porous border. The danger quotient is high, and no one can afford for it to escalate.
Americans have a big stake in the outcome. We rely heavily on Venezuelan oil exports. We've invested nearly $5 billion since 1999 to beef up Colombia's military, attack cocaine production and beat back the guerrillas who protect the drug trade. Mr. Chávez openly sympathizes with the rebels and, if pushed, could easily boost their prospects of military success.
Venezuela's leader badly needs a lesson in diplomacy and self-restraint. Hopefully, a sound defeat in Sunday's referendum will bring him to his senses.