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| International-UN-NGOs |
| Bali climate change conference update |
| 2007-12-04 |
| -The new PM of Oz signed the Kyoto Treaty -The EU delegation called for 50% reduction below 1990 levels by 2050 |
| Posted by:Seafarious |
| #7 Someone posted this at Climate Audit and it should be of interest here. Dear All, I am a “Non-Governmental” observer at the IPCC conference in Bali. There are supposedly 12,000 people attending, half of them journalists and half the sort of people who have spent a lifetime avoiding useful work. The Indonesians have laid on 4,000 security staff, mainly army with automatics. These stand in twos at street corners. There are also armed frogmen on the beach. My prediction is that the conference will let India and China off the hook and allow them to go to the industrialised nations average of CO2 emissions. [snip] The strange thing is that increased CO2 in the atmospher is wholly beneficial - a minuscule amount of warmingand a whole lot more plant growth. It is the best thing for the third world. We are doing our best to get carbon back into the atmosphere but the oceans are gobbling it down, taking half of what we produce. The partial pressure differential is increasing as the atmospheric CO2 level increases.If the oceans are taking half of what we produce at 100 ppm over pre-industrial, does that mean that they will take 100% at 200 ppm over pre-industrial? Has this been modelled? It could be that we don’t even get to a doubling, let alone the optimum 1,000 ppm that commercial greenhouses run at. There are a lot of UN security staff here, wearing blue uniforms and American-style police badges and sidearms. God knows what they do all year between conferences. The IPCC process is trying to get as much control as possible before the cooling of Solar Cycle 24 sets in. Then it will be a rearguard action to preserve what they can. As Dr Svalgaard has pointed out elsewhere, TSI is flatlining and, if the cycle is weak, it will also be late. My calculations are that the global temperature will decline by 0.2 degrees per annum during this minimum and it won’t be much better coming out of it. This is derived from the global temperature/solar cycle correlation in Svensmark and Friis-Christensen’s reply to Lockwood and Frolich (adjusted for El Ninos and volcanoes). |
| Posted by: phil_b 2007-12-04 19:40 |
| #6 mhw, check out the sea surface temperature anomaly. This will be the biggest la nina in a generation. There is already a clear cooling trend in the southern ocean temperatures (second link). http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/oct/global.html#temp |
| Posted by: phil_b 2007-12-04 17:22 |
| #5 The EU delegation called for 50% reduction below 1990 levels by 2050 "Calling for" and "actually doing" are quite different. How many EUro countries have reached their original Kyoto goals? I'm glad I don't live in the EU - that's one mighty big hairshirt to wear. |
| Posted by: Spot 2007-12-04 08:18 |
| #4 phil b A good place to get the most current estimate of sea surface temperatures is at: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/sst/latest_sst.gif I'm not familiar with trend studies. However, I'm sure if you choose a convenient starting point, you can get whatever trend you want (there was a very strong El Nino in 98-99 so if there has been 'cooling' since it probably represents regression to the mean. The more important point is that the surface (down to said 30m) represents a very small part of the picture. Any serious effort to get trend must include not just the ocean surface but the entire column structure as well as the land and atmosphere (although the ocean holds almost all the thermal energy of the combined system and thus is an inertial barrier to any big change). On the other hand, its cold today in the East and I wish I was in a ***** hotel in Bali. |
| Posted by: mhw 2007-12-04 06:59 |
| #3 YAHOO NEWS > SCIENTISTS - CLIMATE CHANGE MAY [seriously]AFFECT SOME INDONESIAN ISLANDS. IMO, can't get more affective than LOSS[ES] OF LAND MASS = so-called "EARTH CHANGES". GUNS-N-ROSES > "DON'T CRY" [Joseph and James] > among other symbolismd for the Moudian-Osamaian Apocalypse known as the GWOT, a long dead Soldier-Warrior, Servant of God, and Madonna Fan is awakened and re-animated by God only to discover that the lands he knew + HIS GRAVE are now UNDERWATER. He will walk under the sea to emerge unto the dry land. D *** NGED CAPT JACK SPARROW + "PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN" [Cursed Barbosa's Pirates walking under the sea towards a Brit warship]. Brought to you by 1960's Oliver STone, Texas-sized Asteroids, and almost a Lindsay Lohan film. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2007-12-04 05:44 |
| #2 TOPIX > CAN WE SAVE THE WORLD BY 2015? [Kyoto deadline looming]; + LIVESCIENCE > DIVORCE SQUANDERS WORLD'S NATURAL RESOURCES. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2007-12-04 05:36 |
| #1 Meanwhile the climate in the real world continues to cool, especially in the southern hemisphere. Look at the sea surface temperatures southern hemisphere We are getting colder since 2000. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2007-12-04 00:22 |