| Submit your comments on this article |
| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| U-turn "may be due to a defector" |
| 2007-12-06 |
| The U-turn on Iran by U.S. spy agencies, the biggest since the Iraq debacle five years ago, is the result of “physical” intelligence, probably a defector, according to various diplomatic and security sources in Washington. One of the main figures in the frame is General Ali-Reza Asgari, a former Deputy Defence Minister and Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander. General Asgari apparently disappeared in Turkey over the past 12 months, having either defected or been kidnapped, and may be in U.S. hands. Other senior intelligence officials, quoted in the New York Times, argue that the turnaround may not have been the result of a single defector but pointed to an analysis of video footage of a tour by foreign journalists of Iran’s nuclear facility at Natanz in 2005. During his press conference on Tuesday, U.S. President George W. Bush said he first heard about the national intelligence estimate report in August, when Mike McConnell, Director of National Intelligence since February, approached him. But he added that he had only had confirmation by Mr. McConnell last week. The President admitted that the U.S. intelligence-gathering in Iran had been difficult since its 1979 revolution. Work on the latest NIE report on Iran has been under way for more than a year. The NIE is the consensus view of the 16 U.S. intelligence agencies. |
| Posted by:Fred |
| #12 OP I too did 20 years "Cleared for Wierd" and I don't know anyone who beklieved anything that came from the CIA or State. Thier "analysis" mever quite bore out with reality. |
| Posted by: Cyber Sarge 2007-12-06 20:35 |
| #11 I was "in the business" for 21+ years. Such nonsense as the current NIE is a common product of the "analytical" side of the business. Those of us who actually PRODUCED intelligence information were considered "peons", and should be devoid of any "analytical" activities. I can't tell you how many Imagery Intelligence Reports I've seen ridiculed because the information didn't fit some upper-echelon analyst's preconceived notions. I'm sure several other spooks who frequent this site can tell similar tales. The current NIE isn't worth the paper it's printed on. |
| Posted by: Old Patriot 2007-12-06 17:48 |
| #10 Procopius and Lord Vader, In the late 70's, there was a tremendous brouhaha over the establishment of minimum entrance requirements for admission to City University. Perusing these requirements, I concluded that these requirements seemed more requirements to enter High School. Apparently nothing has changed. |
| Posted by: doc 2007-12-06 12:42 |
| #9 Wouldn't it be ironic if the NEI information was gleemed from a particularly fruitful "waterboarding session" inspired by a cell phone intercept? |
| Posted by: Capsu78 2007-12-06 10:57 |
| #8 And our university system has gone down in quality too. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2007-12-06 09:36 |
| #7 doc, Notice when the college kids with new paper started showing up in the old agencies like the CIA and the quality of the work went down? Same in MSM. In the 50s and early 60s, news was a trade with apprentice, journeymen, master status. Then the universities got into the act of 'certifying through paper' the skills of people. When teacher colleges of two year programs became four year university paper certificate programs and the quality of our school systems started down hill. You notice a common nexus in all these declines in 'quality' go back to our university system? |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2007-12-06 08:41 |
| #6 "... U.S. intelligence-gathering in Iran had been difficult since its 1979 revolution." Are you kidding? US intelligence MISSED the entire revolution, not to mention the end of the Cold War. After the OSS passed into history, US Intelligence has become an oxymoron. |
| Posted by: doc 2007-12-06 08:13 |
| #5 Based on the analysis at the link in #1, it seems we have a familiar pattern:Cherry-pick a document, ignore any mitigating facts, and throw the cherries - thus harvested - at Bush until another cherry tree is discovered, or Britany has another meltdown. Lord, how I love the MSM! |
| Posted by: Bobby 2007-12-06 06:36 |
| #4 YNETNEWS Op-Ed > WHEN WILL IRAN HAVE THE BOMB? Author believes new US NIE is based on general subjective = superficial assessments, NOT absolute or in-depth knowledge - also denotes that Radical Iran had prev taken the world by surprise in certain things or events, and theres no reason for the World to believe Iran will not do it again. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2007-12-06 04:33 |
| #3 So an intelligence agency, justifiably famous for being duped by foreign agents and moles, has made a drastic revision in its analysis based on a single individual. Why am I sceptical? |
| Posted by: SteveS 2007-12-06 01:45 |
| #2 ION, RIAN/RUSSIATODAY > AROUND THE WORLD IN 71 DAYS - RUSSIA'S FLEET SETS SAIL. Eleven warships, including Aircraft Carrier [47-planes], from Russ Northern, BLack Sea, and Baltic Fleets. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2007-12-06 00:37 |
| #1 Formerspook has some good analysis on this issue. |
| Posted by: 3dc 2007-12-06 00:21 |