Call it an early Christmas gift for Hillary ClintonÂ’s campaign: A new Iowa poll seems to show the New York senator with a stunning double-digit lead over her nearest rival among likely Democratic caucus-goers.| Teamsters got there despite the bad weather, did they? |
| ARG is seriously bent, and I wouldn't trust them to poll a parking meter on its expiration time. |
According to the poll, Obama has lost some ground among male voters in Iowa: Last week, he led the field with 27 percent support, followed by 21 for Clinton and 19 for Edwards. This week, the leaders are Clinton and Edwards, with 28 and 27 percent support among Democratic men. Obama has 16 percent support, and Joe Biden has 11 percent.
As Hillary Clinton appears to be breaking away from the pack, the Republican race in Iowa may be tightening up. A week ago, an ARG poll placed Mike Huckabee over Mitt Romney by an 11-point margin among likely Republican caucus-goers, but the latest poll by the group puts the two back in a statistical tie, 23 to 21 percent. John McCain has 17 percent of the vote, Rudy Giuliani has 14 percent — and Ron Paul has 10 percent in the latest poll, up from 4 percent last week.
Like Obama, the poll indicates that HuckabeeÂ’s support among male voters in Iowa may be slipping. Last week, Huckabee had 31 percent support among Republican men; this week, he and Rudy Giuliani are tied at 20 percent. John McCain and Mitt Romney both have the support of 17 percent of the GOPÂ’s likely male caucus goers.
The most recent ARG polls have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The polls were conducted over the phone, and had a sample size of 600 likely Democratic and 600 Republican caucus-goers living in Iowa, respectively.
| ARG only recently agreed to disclose the political affiliation of those it polls, something other reputable polling companies have done for decades. I smell a rat with anything ARG touches. |