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| Iraq |
| Mosul situation veers from 'Baghdad model' |
| 2008-02-07 |
| MOSUL, Iraq — The battle for Mosul that will play out in the coming weeks and months could be a very different struggle than the successful U.S. campaigns against al-Qaeda militants in Baghdad and elsewhere. Baghdad and much of Iraq are slowly coming under the control of U.S. and Iraqi forces. This city of 1.8 million people remains an urban stronghold for al-Qaeda in Iraq. SHIFT IN TACTICS: Al-Qaeda tries to salvage image After a string of attacks here, including the assassination of the city's police chief and an ambush on a U.S. patrol that killed five soldiers, the United States and Iraqi government have turned their attention to Mosul. Last month, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki promised a decisive campaign to defeat al-Qaeda. "The dynamics within Mosul really are different," says Lt. Col. Michael Simmering, whose 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment leads the charge here. "Transferring the Baghdad model up here doesn't work." That model flooded U.S. soldiers into Baghdad, identified neighborhood leaders and recruited local men to provide security. The strategy depended on widespread local opposition against al-Qaeda. In Mosul, officers decided to forgo the neighborhood watch organizations that were vital elsewhere because they could stoke sectarian warfare. "Standing up (neighborhood groups) in one area automatically creates a perception that the balance of power shifts to that sect," Simmering says. "Then all of a sudden, what was an integrated city turns into a city where you have ethnic minorities taking sides." In Mosul, U.S. troops face an enemy that has adapted from past mistakes. Al-Qaeda militants have pulled away from brutal tactics that alienated much of Iraq, such as car bombs that kill scores of civilians. That could make it harder for the U.S. military to turn people against the insurgency. "The people don't trust us yet," says Lt. Stanford Bell, 25, from Salt Lake City. "Right now, all that's out there are the terrorists." U.S. troops will tackle al-Qaeda here with significantly less combat power than was used to help secure Baghdad in recent months. There will be roughly half the number of combat outposts manned by U.S. soldiers in Mosul's neighborhoods as there were in Baghdad, says Army Capt. Pat Ryan, a U.S. intelligence officer. U.S. officers point out that the military had to pull apart warring Sunni and Shiite sects in Baghdad. In Mosul, sectarian tensions simmer but haven't exploded into open warfare. "In Baghdad, we were trying to break up a fistfight. Up here, I'm trying to find a bad guy," Simmering says. In neighborhoods where U.S. troops establish a foothold, they will be hampered by the lack of a local leader and the absence of a strong tribal system that can help with the population, Ryan says. "You go into an area, and it's difficult to find the local leader who will step up and say, 'I'm the … sheik of this neighborhood,' " he says. As a result, the U.S. military will rely on the fledgling Iraqi security forces in Mosul more than they have anywhere else in Iraq, Simmering says. The Iraqi army and police units here receive measured praise from their U.S. counterparts, but there is some cause for concern. An Iraqi soldier in Mosul fatally shot a U.S. Army captain in December. The Sunni-dominated police force is vastly underequipped, says Hassan Abdallah, a police captain in the city. He and his men have had to buy their own uniforms and lack any winter clothing. "We have no government support," he says. U.S. counterinsurgency efforts in Iraq depend on local governments to make up for the weaknesses of the central government in Baghdad. That approach proved successful in Sunni-dominated Anbar province, west of Baghdad. In Mosul, where the Sunni majority boycotted provincial elections in 2005, the government councils are 75% Kurdish, stoking discontent and mistrust. "The government in Baghdad does zero for us. The local government does even less," says Ahmed Abu Anis, 37, a Sunni construction worker in Mosul. Despite the obstacles, U.S. soldiers are optimistic about the struggle ahead. "We were taking pretty sustained fire, but once you engage, they just disappear," Lt. Jacob Deguire said minutes after a gunfight against insurgents in downtown Mosul. "They're really good at disappearing once you return fire." He wiped his brow and chuckled: "Don't worry, one of these days, they're gonna disappear for good." |
| Posted by:GolfBravoUSMC |
| #6 Mosul is predominately Arab, mostly Sunni. The surrounding area is mostly Kurd, although with a Arab dominated corridor to the south. If Kurds are playing both sides, it will be free-lance. The Kurds long term strategy is to make Ninenveh province including Mosul part of the Kurdish area. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2008-02-07 18:01 |
| #5 One block at a time. These counter insurgency efforts are difficult, localized events that hinge on trust. The kurds will not likely lend much trust to anyone other than their own, but if they have 75% of the population we should be able to pacify them fairly quickly. Word I've heard from the kurdish north says that the kurds have been trying to play both sides by offering safe haven and weapons for sale to AlQ in order to justify continued US presence so they can rest assured that they've got a well heeled army protecting their oil assets. |
| Posted by: ElvisHasLeftTheBuilding 2008-02-07 13:52 |
| #4 Mosul was in much better shape when Deuce Four the Stryker battalion and LTC Kurilla were there as Michael Yon documented. But the unit pulled out going to Baghdad about 2 years ago.. |
| Posted by: RD 2008-02-07 12:42 |
| #3 interesting comments |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2008-02-07 09:35 |
| #2 About 70% of the perimeter villages around Mosul are Kurdish. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2008-02-07 09:13 |
| #1 I think one good thing here is that the perimeter of Mosul contains fewer satellite villages (Al Q finds sanctuary sometimes in these). So we may have an improved the 'securing the perimeter' part of the ops. Here's hopeing. |
| Posted by: mhw 2008-02-07 08:55 |