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| The Man on the White Stallion: Al Gore is inevitable. |
| 2008-02-21 |
| What can I say, its Derb Some weeks before that I had told attendees at a private lecture the same thing. The organizers of that event had asked me to give a talk on the 2008 field of candidates, which was at that point very large. At the end of my talk, they said, I should offer my opinion as to who would actually be the next president. Preparing my talk, I mulled over the matter carefully. At the very end of the lecture, after 40 minutes of surveying the entire field, both parties, I said “Ladies and gentlemen, the next President of the United States,” pressed the key (it was a PowerPoint presentation), and up on the screen came Al Gore. There was a chorus of boos and jeers — it was a conservative crowd. Derb: “Look, this is not my guy. I’m anti-Gore, and have a paper trail to prove it (see here, here, and here). But as an analyst, it’s my job dispassioantely to weigh the probabilities. I weighed them. This is what they told me.” |
| Posted by:g(r)omgoru |
| #18 #3 = Oldspook's post contains many of the reasons why SADR [+ OSAMA etc] are holding back vv RANTBURG article. Open Campaign??? |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2008-02-21 22:23 |
| #17 Gore is inevitable? Two weeks ago, Hillary was inevitable. I don't think that word means what you think it means. |
| Posted by: SteveS 2008-02-21 21:30 |
| #16 M: If no one wants it to happen, it will not happen. I think Derbyshire is absolutely looney when he suggests that the voting public would fall all over itself to elect Gore even if he is the nominee. Al Gore was derailed by Ralph Nader. Just as Bush I and Dole were derailed by Perot. PC prevents conservatives from saying it, but an Obama candidacy is going to result in a GOP landslide. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2008-02-21 15:47 |
| #15 E: When people see two weak horses and another horse, by nature, they will take the fat horse. This is too funny. But the fact is Al Gore can lose weight, but Obama can't lose his tan. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2008-02-21 15:44 |
| #14 J: Uh, what scenario would produce Al? Blacks would bolt the party in record numbers. Hillary's toast and Al's a non-starter -- it's Obama. That's just not going to happen. Only one party supports freebies and discrimination against non-blacks. That would be the Democratic party. Blacks have no choice but to vote for the Democrats if they want their goodies. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2008-02-21 15:41 |
| #13 Derbyshire must have been hanging out with Hollyweird types. A script worthy of Hollywood except it ain't going to happen. Gore couldn't even carry his home state of Tennessee the last time. Obama most likely will be the donk candidate unless Hillary finds some way to pull her chestnuts out of the fire at the 11th hour. |
| Posted by: JohnQC 2008-02-21 14:29 |
| #12 Al had his chance right after he got his Noble prize. He didn't want to run and his time has past. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2008-02-21 14:15 |
| #11 And editorials to the effect that Only Al Can Save America Now. Lots of editorials. And Sunday AM pundits. Papparazi. Private dinner invitations from Influential People who Seek His Advice (read: help). I'm sure I'm leaving something out, but if so His Ego will attract it anyway. |
| Posted by: lotp 2008-02-21 13:12 |
| #10 But I'm not so sure he's discourage a Draft Al movement. You know, acolytes begging him to come down from on high and Save Us, donors seeking favors by burning incense and making large deposits, that sort of thing. |
| Posted by: lotp 2008-02-21 13:08 |
| #9 lotp: I'm sure in his heart of hearts he still thinks he won in 2000. The question is, does he want to put himself and his family through another campaign? Give up a comfy gig as global warming guru? Revisit the "inventor of the Internet" and other flubs, just to risk losing the big one twice in one lifetime? Gore passed on running this cycle back last year when Hillary! and Obama! and all them were getting their organizations lit up. I think that's a leading indicator that he doesn't want to run again. |
| Posted by: Mike 2008-02-21 12:50 |
| #8 Bin Laden summed it up: When people see two weak horses and another horse, by nature, they will take the fat horse. |
| Posted by: Excalibur 2008-02-21 12:40 |
| #7 Oh I think he lusts after the job. It was his, His, HIS PRECIOUS!!!! And that tricksy Bush stole it from him. Stole his precious Yeah, he want the job. |
| Posted by: lotp 2008-02-21 12:06 |
| #6 It's certainly possible that Gore could be the nominee in a deadlock. However, I've yet to see any indication that either (1) Al Gore wants the job, or (2) any significant number of Dem insiders want Al Gore as their second choice. If no one wants it to happen, it will not happen. I think Derbyshire is absolutely looney when he suggests that the voting public would fall all over itself to elect Gore even if he is the nominee. I don't know that anyone has any polling or other data to support that speculation. |
| Posted by: Mike 2008-02-21 11:27 |
| #5 Big Al certainly could be the savior. His outstanding work on Global Warming, since he left(kicked out) politics, including his shining Nobel Medal, ought to be enough to put him on a parapet for all the looney tunes in the Dummocrat party. |
| Posted by: Woozle Elmeter 2907 2008-02-21 10:22 |
| #4 I would say man on the white hongre. Hongre is French for eunuch horse. |
| Posted by: JFM 2008-02-21 10:17 |
| #3 Well.... Even if Obama wins most of the remaining states popuular vote, Hillary can still deny him the delegate wins. All she has to do is manage to grab a couple big states, and keep it fairly close in the rest. Remember the Dems have few, if any, winner take all. They use proportional representation for the most part, but also award delegates on a per-congressional-district basis. Obama's voters tend to be very concentrated into urban areas - therefore he may win 90-10 there but lose 52-48 elsewhere. Maeaning Hillary gets a large number of the Cong District awards, while Obama gets a far smaller number, but makes up for it in the over-all state-wide awards. That means neither will have enough to win at the convention until the Super-delegates come into play. All that needs to happen is that a few dozen of them vote freely for someone other than Hillary or Obama on the first ballot (like some of the Kucinich nutters might do), denying both Hillary and Obama the first ballot win. At that point I believe it becomes an open convention, and that's where Goreacle comes in on the white horse, as a compromise/unity candidate with Obambi as his VP. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2008-02-21 09:53 |
| #2 Derbyshire is an idiot. |
| Posted by: Mike 2008-02-21 09:49 |
| #1 Uh, what scenario would produce Al? Blacks would bolt the party in record numbers. Hillary's toast and Al's a non-starter -- it's Obama. |
| Posted by: Jonathan 2008-02-21 09:09 |