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Iraq
Basra incidents "turning point" in Iraq's political chessboard, analysts reckon
2008-05-05
Iraqi politicians and researchers concurred that the political scene in the country has significantly changed after the Iraqi government targeted the armed militias of Shiite political groups, while others believed the Basra incidents have been a "turning point" that are yet to shape the course of events in war-scourged nation.

"The political situation in Iraq has developed dramatically after the Basra incidents that no one can definitely claim that the (Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri) al-Maliki (Shiite-led) government is a sectarian one anymore," Ali al-Allaq, a member of parliament from the Shiite Unified Iraqi Coalition (UIC).

Maliki had announced in March the commencement of a security operation codenamed Saulat al-Forsan (Knights' Assault) in the port city of Basra, Iraq's second largest province and an oil-hub, 590 km south of Baghdad, which he said targeted "outlaws".
"Matters are heading towards national rapprochement and strategically important decision-taking by Iraqi political blocs, including those who quit the government," Allaq told Aswat al-Iraq – Voices of Iraq – (VOI). "These blocs have taken the decision to return after securing strong guarantees from the Maliki government," added Allaq, whose bloc is the largest in parliament with 83 out of a total 275 seats.

Adnan al-Dulaimi, the leader of the Sunni Iraqi Accordance Front (IAF), had told VOI on Wednesday that the front finally decided during recent meetings to re-join the government. The IAF, the main bloc representing Sunni Muslims in the political process, had withdrawn from the government in August 2007, claiming then that Maliki was "making decisions solely and not giving enough space for the other parties."

A lawmaker from the IAF, the third largest bloc with 44 parliamentary seats, believed that Iraq's political state of affairs would be remarkably refreshed during coming days after the Basra incidents.

"Iraq has never experienced a harmony since the establishment of the modern state after 2003. We might as well see the emergence of new political blocs and organizations," Hashim al-Taie told VOI.

He said the Iraqi government has been through tough tests in several issues like the general pardon law, power sharing and the tolerance about different opinions. "The prime minister managed to pass these tests successfully and practically discredit the sectarianism accusations used to be hurled against his government in the past," Taie said.

The IAF is composed of three key groups: the Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) of Vice President Tareq al-Hashimi, the Iraq People's Congress of Dulaimi and the National Dialogue Council (NDC) of Khalaf al-Alyan, while the Shiite UIC comprises the Dawa Party, of Premier Maliki, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) of Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim and other independent deputies.

A legislator from the Kurdistan Coalition (KC) expressed optimism about a possibility to re-group anew in political terms. "I would not be exaggerating if I said that matters are going ahead and faster than the past. There is going to be an unexpected political breakthrough that would bring Iraq out of the bottleneck," Sirwan al-Zahawi, whose KC is the second largest bloc in the Iraqi parliament with 55 seats, told VOI.

Zahawi believed that the Maliki government did not strike the Sadrists, or Iraqis loyal to Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr, in Basra. "The government did not even target the Sadrists but rather certain groups feigning affiliation to the Sadrists," he explained.
Now for the obligatory featuring of nay-sayers by the MSM:
Meanwhile, analyst and researcher Ibrahim al-Samaydaie said Iraq's political shift after the Basra incidents is "fragile". "The political agreements between the Iraqi government and the opposition groups were merely coincidental and had not been strategically planned," Samaydaie said.

Political writer and analyst Muhammad al-Furati said no one can possibly describe any plan as successful. The Iraqi government itself, he said, admitted that several "criminals" have left the area and might return any time, a matter that would not help predict a practical imposition of the law in Basra.
Posted by:GolfBravoUSMC

#1  The reduction of the Mahdi army also represents the last major internal obstacle to Iraq's sovereignty. From this point, the threat becomes an external one, specifically Iran and Syria.

This means the mission of the Iraqi military can more and more be devoted to external threats, which in itself is unifying.

The next big test will be their upcoming elections, in which Iraq will finally be able to fully look at itself. All doubts about the fairness and accuracy of the election will be quashed, because it will be both without duress and as inclusive as can be.

The critical elements still missing from their defense structure *must* at least start to be filled by the time of the US presidential elections. We must all assume the worst, and Iraq must embark on an overnight defense build up.

We must leave the Iraqis with a shopping list of must have procurement, as well as a training and operational timetable of what to do when we leave, if it comes to that.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2008-05-05 11:44  

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