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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Why Iran will fight, not compromise |
| 2008-05-30 |
| By Spengler What can the West offer the Islamic Republic of Iran in return for giving up its nuclear ambitions and kenneling its puppies of war? The problem calls to mind the question regarding what to give a man who has everything: cancer, AIDS, Alzheimer's, diabetes, kidney failure, and so forth. Iran's economy is so damaged that it is impossible to tell how bad things are. Except perhaps for the oilfields of southern Iraq, and perhaps also northern Saudi Arabia, there is nothing the West can give Iran to forestall an internal breakdown. Iranian dissidents put overall unemployment at 30% and youth unemployment at 50%. Government subsidies sustain a very large portion of the population; 42% of the non-agricultural population is employed by the Iranian state, compared with 17% in Pakistan. Within fewer than 10 years, Iran will become a net importer, at which point the government no longer will be able to provide subsidies. Iran's economic implosion is a source of imminent strategic risk. What strategic consequences ensue from Iran's economic misery? Broadly speaking, the choices are two. In the most benign scenario, Iran's clerical establishment will emulate the Soviet Union of 1987 ...The second choice is an imperial adventure. In fact, Iran is engaged in such an adventure, funding and arming Shi'ite allies from Basra to Beirut, and creating clients selectively among such Sunnis as Hamas in Palestine. Choice snark: Josef Stalin's terror saw to it that the only communist true believers left alive were lecturing at Western universities. |
| Posted by:g(r)omgoru |
| #8 The rules of economics vary depending on ethnicity? THey depend on many things like degree of development, forecasts of the agents (very influenced by mindsets). But here what we are discussing is revolt: really hungry people don't revolt: they are far too weans and far too busy looking for food. Like Koreans. It is people who manage to eat but not enough to be happy who are dangerous. Like Iranians. |
| Posted by: JFM 2008-05-30 12:20 |
| #7 If you had bothered to read the article (or even the title of the article), Spengler pretty much dismisses the idea of a revolution rather than a drive toward a shiite imperialism. Which is exactly why we should bomb the hell out of them now before they get their hands on a nuke. |
| Posted by: Abu Uluque 2008-05-30 12:11 |
| #6 The rules of economics vary depending on ethnicity? Yes, depending on which ethnic group is holding all the purse strings. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2008-05-30 11:45 |
| #5 The rules of economics vary depending on ethnicity? |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2008-05-30 11:27 |
| #4 Procopius2k, I would say there is a huge difference between Iran and North Korea. For one North Korea is a homogenous ethinc group and Iran is a cobbled together mini-empire dominated by the Persians. Yeah we may never be able to exploit that but it's a fundamental difference that shouldn't be forgotten. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2008-05-30 11:21 |
| #3 The last sentence of this year old article says, "Ahmadinejad and his generation of Revolutionary Guards will fight, and cautious old men like Rafsanjani will not be able to stop them. " which seems in line with what P2K was saying. It doesn't seem like Dinnerjacket has taken the full Zim-Bob-way yet. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2008-05-30 10:16 |
| #2 Blah, blah, blah. Why do you think Iran is any different than North Korea in destroying its own economy and still no revolution? If you had bothered to read the article (or even the title of the article), Spengler pretty much dismisses the idea of a revolution rather than a drive toward a shiite imperialism. |
| Posted by: Pappy 2008-05-30 09:54 |
| #1 Blah, blah, blah. Why do you think Iran is any different than North Korea in destroying its own economy and still no revolution? For that matter Zimbabwe? Those in power don't give a rat's ass about any of it and the population lacks a cultural anchor to 'Live Free or Die'. As long as you have first generation 'revolutionaries' in power and the dogs to kill on command, nothing is going to alter the political structure. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2008-05-30 08:07 |