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Caribbean-Latin America
Bolivia states to vote on split
2008-06-01
IIUC, this is actually worth following, as this could deal a serious blow to castro/chavez plan of turning bolivia into the stepping stone of their "bolivarian" expansion into latin america (as che guevarra tried to do); like the FARC crumbling down, this bodes ills for huuuugo, I wonder what the response will be?
Two provinces in Bolivia are set to vote in a referendum on whether to declare autonomy from President Evo Morales's socialist government.

The votes on Sunday have been organised by conservative opponents in the lowland provinces of Beni and Pando. They hope to follow the lead of the country's economic powerhouse, Santa Cruz, which voted for an autonomy package four weeks ago.

President Morales said the autonomy move was illegal.

Another autonomy vote is planned in Tarija, which has major gas reserves.
Santa Cruz Beni, Pando, Tarija — why, that's almost enough to form a new nation ...
Analysts say the votes reflect the hostility of the country's business and landowning elite towards President Morales, and his policies aimed at transferring wealth to the poor indigenous people of the western Andean regions.

The president, who has more than two years left in office, faces a recall referendum on his leadership in August. If successful in the ballot, Mr Morales says he wants to hold a public referendum on a draft constitution which has been awaiting approval since last year. The constitution aims to enshrine reforms such as land redistribution to Bolivia's indigenous majority and sharing of wealth with the poorer western regions.

However, critics say it cedes too much control to the government in La Paz.
It's a feature, not a bug, the revised, heavily centralized and jacobine constitution was IIUC a legal coup, with the army and mobs of armed morales drones protecting the military school where it was drafted.
Mr Morales's opponents in the eastern states - home to a large part of Bolivia's oil and gas deposits - argue that his plans would unfairly privilege indigenous groups and would mean greater central control, including two consecutive five-year terms for the president.
Again, IIUC, "unfair priviliges" for the indians is a feature, not a bug, the neomarxists all over latin america are using race resentment as a lever, from chiapas to venezuela.
Posted by:anonymous5089

#4  I don't know about that. We'd have to have access, and I doubt seriously that Brazil, Paraguay, Chile or Argentina would give us access. It would be the one thing we'd do that would cause them to rush to Morales' side, since (after all) it could be seen as the big old U.S. throwing its weight around again, treating Bolivia as a banana republic.

I don't know what assets the eastern provinces have to stand up in a fight, and it isn't clear to me that the Bolivian military would remain cohesive.
Posted by: Steve White   2008-06-01 20:52  

#3  Chavez has said that if these states break free, he will attack them militarily, as they are a declaration of war against "the revolution(tm)".

However, little has been said since then. I suspect that if he puts one foot over that border, SOCOM will unleash a major ass kick on them.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2008-06-01 18:07  

#2  I wonder how many factions the drug cartels will split into and/or support? They have lots of guns and men, and were very powerful in Bolivia until around 2000 or 2001, BEFORE Morales got in. The previous government had broken at least 2 of the cartels, but the cartels were run by Latinos and not Indians. That could be a big factor in which side they might choose to jump in on.
The racial dividing line between Indians and Latinos is HUGE in Latin America.
Posted by: Shieldwolf   2008-06-01 17:08  

#1  There's a small chance this could turn into another Bolivian bloodbath. Many players, long borders, no port.
Posted by: George Smiley   2008-06-01 12:52  

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